Yang Time

Quarterbacks Draft Preview

2009-08-16T21:45:00.000-07:00

This year's quarterback crop is full of uncertainties, from players coming back from injury (Brady, Palmer, Hasselbeck), players moving to different teams (Cassel, Cutler, Orton, Favre), and players that are always question marks (Schaub, Eli Manning). For that reason, there should be more major surprises as well as more major disappointments this fantasy football season.

I believe the top 5 quarterbacks are close, and there are a bunch of other QBs who could easily become top 5 QBs this year. For that reason, the draft strategy for quarterbacks is pretty clear: WAIT after Brady, Brees, and Manning go.

Here are my QB rankings for the upcoming fantasy season:

TIER 1

1) Tom Brady
Pros: The knee looked great in the first preseason game, and no QB has a higher ceiling than Brady (not even up for debate). In his first season throwing to Moss and Welker he threw 50 TDs compared to 8 picks and 4806 yards.

Cons: The injury risk is definitely a concern, and there may be some rustiness in the first month or so of the season. Some worry that he'll be distracted by Gisele and married life (Gisele...wow). Be careful not to overvalue him and draft him in the first two rounds, as he is unlikely to throw 40+ touchdowns again.

Bottom Line: Brady is one of the all-time greatest quarterbacks, and one of the most competitive quarterbacks of all-time. He won't be scared of contact and he'll be doing everything he can to prove the Giant's Super Bowl victory was a fluke. It’s time to show the world that Brady and the Patriots are back and ready to continue their run as the greatest team of the decade. I would be willing to take a risk on him early in the third round.

2) Drew Brees
Pros: Brees airs it out every game no matter who is injured on the Saints. If Reggie Bush and Marques Colston can stay healthy for the whole season, Brees should easily throw 30+ TDs this season.

Cons: The Saints D allowed the 6th most points in the NFL last year. If they become a better defensive team this year, Brees could be involved in less shootouts.

Bottom Line: Brees has little downside and is a safe bet to be a top 5 quarterback this coming year. He could easily be taken ahead of Brady even though he has less upside than him.

3) Peyton Manning
Pros: Manning is consistently great every season, excluding one season which was beyond great. How consistent is he? Here are his passing TD totals over his career: 26, 26, 33, 26, 27, 29, 49, 28, 31, 31, and 27. Oh, and he’s never missed a game in his 11 seasons. Peyton has proven that he doesn’t need a healthy and/or effective Marvin Harrison the past two years. Last year, he proved that he can overcome injury and be effective despite an unhealthy Joseph Addai and a struggling offensive line. Addai should be healthier this year, and if he struggles Donald Brown looks like a capable back.

Cons: When a new coach arrives, there is a level of uncertainty as to how his new team will respond. This is especially true when replacing a coach of Tony Dungy’s caliber. Manning also has less upside than Brady or Brees.

Bottom Line: Manning is a near lock for 4000 yards and 25+ TDs, and has less downside than Brady or Brees. Reaching for Manning late in the third round could pay off, as the security Manning offers deserves a premium.

4) Phillip Rivers
Pros: 105.5 QB rating, 34 TDs, 11 INTs, 4009 yards, 65.3 comp %, 8.4 Y/A. Rivers was broke out last year as the Chargers became a passing team due to a struggling and unhealthy LT. Rivers has his full arsenal of weapons again this year plus a healthier Gates and healthier LT.

Cons: If LT is effective and healthy this year, Rivers’ attempts could be cut way down, along with his passing TDs. He also doesn’t have the track record of a Manning, Brees, or Brady.

Bottom Line: Rivers could end up having the same value as the top 3 QBs, but should not be drafted with the top 3 QBs.

5) Aaron Rodgers
Pros: In Rodgers’ first season as a starter, he threw 28 TDs versus 13 INTs, rushed for 207 yards and 4 scores, and threw over 4000 yards. Rodgers still has room to grow, and offers tantalizing upside throwing to Greg Jennings and Donald Driver.

Cons: While a Rodgers has more upside because he is younger and still learning, he also has more downside because he is less proven.

Bottom Line: Rodgers should be good for 25+ TDs this year, provided his offense remains healthy. He should be drafted near Rivers.

TIER 2

6) Kurt Warner
Pros: The Cardinals are a pass heavy team, finishing 2nd in the league in passing and last in the league in rushing. Boldin, Fitzgerald, and Breaston are back and motivated to return to the Super Bowl.

Cons: If you draft Warner, handcuffing Leinart is a must. Warner is 38 years old and has an injury history, including a replaced hip. He also will turn the ball over, both with interceptions and fumbles. Warner has fumbled 12 and 11 times in the past two years (losing 7 and 6), respectively. He has negative 2 yards rushing last year.

Bottom Line: Warner has just as much upside as the top 5 QBs, but has considerably more downside. Last year he was undervalued, but this year he is overvalued.

7) Tony Romo
Pros: In his 3 seasons as a starter, numbers have not been a problem for Romo. He has been a yardage and TD monster, and has been efficient with a 94.7 QB rating, 63.6 completion percentage, and 8.1 Y/A for his career. Marion Barber played through injury all last year and should be healthier to help the Cowboys’ offense this year, and Roy Williams looks ready to be the #1 receiver, reportedly trimming 10-15 pounds in the offseason. Romo also showed his toughness last year by playing injured last year.

Cons: When T.O. has left teams in the past, his former QB’s stats have suffered considerably. Romo also faces the intense pressure of expectations in Dallas. Plus, I would be pretty crushed if I broke up with Jessica Simpson.

Bottom Line: When T.O. left San Francisco and Philadelphia, those teams did not have a receiver the caliber of Roy Williams ready to take over the role of #1 wideout or a tight end like Jason Witten. Romo still has plenty of weapons and offers considerable upside.

TIER 3
8) Donovan McNabb
Pros: McNabb will have his best receiving corps since T.O. this year, with Desean Jackson entering his 2nd year, Kevin Curtis healthy, rookie Jeremy Maclin, and Reggie Brown. McNabb has never thrown a lot of INTs, and is an experienced player.

Cons: McNabb has a history of injuries, and could easily go down this season as well. In addition, Brian Westbrook, another fragile player, is not getting any younger, and if he gets hurt the Eagles offense will become a question mark. Lastly, the whole Michael Vick experiment (Wildcat, McNabb and Vick both playing at the same time) seems a bit risky.

Bottom Line: McNabb has potential this year with Jackson, Curtis, and Maclin. He also has his share of risks. I would avoid drafting him if it’s possible to wait and pick up a similar QB.

9) Matt Schaub
Pros: Houston threw for the 4th most yards in the league last year and boasts Andre Johnson and Kevin Walter. Steve Slaton is also excellent catching the ball out of the backfield. Upside upside upside.

Cons: Schaub can’t seem to stay on the field. Not only that, but he has been inconsistent when on the field.

Bottom Line: Schaub is one of the biggest gambles in the draft, offering the potential to be a top 5 QB or a player who you keep injured on your bench. If you think you can draft a good #2 QB later in the draft, feel free to draft Schaub ahead of Romo.

10) Carson Palmer
Pros: He says he’s healthy, and Coles should fill the hole left by Housh. Palmer will be airing it out this year, and could return to the 30 touchdown area. Cincinnati could find themselves in a lot of shootout games this year.

Cons: Even when he was healthy, Palmer struggled in 2007 when he threw 20 INTs. He still has a lot to prove as a top tier NFL quarterback, and won’t have the running game that he had with Rudi Johnson a few years ago. Is Ocho Cinco as good a player as before he changed his name?

Bottom Line: Palmer is a risky pick, but he has shown the ability to throw 30 TDs, and still has weapons. Draft him if you want to take a risk, but be ready to draft another QB soon after.

11) Matt Ryan
Pros: Ryan showed he has the ability to become one of the game’s best QBs in his rookie season. He wasn’t a dink and donk specialist, as demonstrated by his 7.9 Y/A. Now he has Tony Gonzalez, and young QBs love tight ends.

Cons: Atlanta ran the ball 35 times a game last year, so Ryan is clearly passing in a run-first offense. Will Atlanta pass more this year, and if they do, will Ryan be ready for it in his second year in the league?

Bottom Line: Ryan has upside, unlike many quarterbacks in a run first offense that simply dink and donk (e.g. Eli Manning, Brett Favre last year, Joe Flacco, Kerry Collins). However, it’s exciting to pick the young star in drafts, and somebody is going to reach for him. Don’t be that person.

12) Ben Roethlisberger
Pros: being an overrated manage-the-game quarterback earlier in his career, he has much more freedom now. This was mainly due to an atrocious offensive line and an extremely difficult schedule, two things that have to be better this year. Santonio Holmes looks ready to break out.

Cons: Big Ben always seems to be hurt and injuries have hurt his performance. Despite the Super Bowl performance, don’t forget that Roethlisberger had a horrible regular season last year, with just 17 passing TDs, 15 INTs, and 14 fumbles, 7 of which were lost. He has never passed for a lot of yards in his career, including last year when he averaged only 206 yards of passing a game.

Bottom Line: Big Ben is a solid pick as a trustworthy #2 QB, but doesn’t have the upside of the quarterbacks above and is a major injury risk.

13) Matt Hasselbeck
Pros: Hasselbeck showed what he can do without an effective Shaun Alexander 2 years ago by throwing for 28 TDs versus 12 INTs and almost 3966 yards. This year, he will be throwing to T.J. Houshmandzadeh to go with Nate Burleson and Deion Branch. He’ll also be throwing at division foes St. Louis, San Francisco, and Arizona.

Cons: When Hasselbeck did play last year, it wasn’t pretty. Even if he is healthy this year, he’s not a guarantee to be a 25+ TD quarterback, a mark he has accomplished only twice in his career. If he’s ineffective, Seneca Wallace is ready to take over.

Bottom Line: Hasselbeck is a risky pick, but is his upside in the later rounds far outweighs his downside. He could be a top 5 QB.

14) Jay Cutler
Pros: Cutler is going to be extremely motivated to stick it to Josh McDaniels, and certainly has the arm to do it. He is entering just his 4th season in the league, and threw for 4500+ yards last year. He also has run for 200 yards 2 years in a row.

Cons: Cutler will go from throwing to Brandon Marshall and Eddie Royal to…who? Devin Hester? It’s doubtful Cutler will approach 4000 yards passing with his most proven receivers are tight ends Greg Olsen and Desmond Clark. The Bears offense will be running the ball with Matt Forte much more than throwing bullets down field with Cutler.

Bottom Line: If Cutler was still in Denver, he could potentially be a top 5 QB pick. His talent is undeniable, and Cutler might make stars out of some unproven receivers in Chicago. Cutler should make for a solid QB2, but nothing more.

15) Matt Cassel
Pros: After struggling in the first third of the season, Cassel emerged as one of fantasy’s best QBs down the stretch. Despite not starting a game since high school, passed for almost 3700 yards, 21 TDs and 11 INTs. He’s also an underrated runner, and his 2 rushing TDs and 270 rushing yards provided a nice boost to his fantasy stats. He showed poise and accuracy while throwing 7 games with a 100+ QB rating last year. With continued development, Cassel could emerge as one of the league’s best QBs. The arrival of Todd Haley and a huge contract will mean KC is going to pass frequently this season.

Cons: Cassel’s most obvious con is that he was in New England last year, and although Dwayne Bowe is good, there are few other options in Kansas City. Cassel has reportedly been struggling during camp, and if he’s ineffective Brodie Croyle could run away with the QB job.

Bottom Line: Cassel is still unproven, but he certainly showed some skills last year that cannot simply be attributed to being in New England. He’s a risky pick who could become a QB1 or an ineffective QB in the free agent pool.

16) David Garrard
Pros: Fred Taylor left, and Torry Holt arrived in the offseason. MJD has never had 200 carries in a season, so it makes sense to think Garrard should be passing a lot this season and may eclipse his 3620 yards last season. His 2 rushing TDs and 322 rushing yards last year were very important for fantasy purposes.

Cons: Garrard has a solid floor, but he has never thrown for 20 TDs and that may be his upside. The Jacksonville offense will be based on MJD’s running.

Bottom Line: Garrard is a reliable #2 QB. He shouldn’t be any better or worse than that.

17) Trent Edwards
Pros: Entering his 3rd year, Edwards has room to grow. He certainly has toys to play with, as T.O. and Lee Evans could make one of the best tandems in the league.

Cons: Edwards is raw and Buffalo’s O-line is a major question mark. Young QBs and bad O-lines are not a pretty combination. Buffalo may not have a running game to back Edwards up, as Marshawn Lynch is a question mark and suspended for the first 3 games. T.O. could also cause headaches.

Bottom Line: Draft with fear, but T.O. has always made his QBs more successful in his first season with a new team.

18) Kyle Orton
Pros: Brandon Marshall is a stud and Eddie Royal seems to be a stud entering his 2nd year. Orton has never had a chance to throw to receivers of this caliber, and could produce a Cassel-like season under Josh McDaniel’s tutelage.

Cons: Orton is unproven and played in a run first system in Chicago. Last year he had an Eli Manning-like 58.5 completion percentage and 6.4 Y/A. At least 1 INT a game is likely as well.

Bottom Line: Orton may prove to be a decent QB2 by throwing it up there for Eddie Royal and Brandon Marshall. We don’t really know what he has to offer; Orton is one of the drafts mysteries.

Best of the Rest
19) Brett Favre
Bottom Line: Favre is again on a run first team, and is likely to do more dink and donking. His health problems last year may not have been as worrisome as his decision-making problems. Still, he is a hall of fame QB, so if he finds some of his old magic could become a reliable QB2.

20) Eli Manning
Bottom Line: Despite being the NFL’s highest paid player (gag), Eli is inaccurate down the field and relies on the Giants’ running game and throwing checkdown passes. In the past, he’d be able to accomplish some big gains by lobbing it to Plax, but now Plax is gone. Brady made it work with Reche Caldwell and Jabar Gaffney as his top 2 receivers, but to think Eli is capable of doing that would be foolish. Still, the Giants figure to move the ball with their great running game, and Eli may ride that running game to some offensive success as he has in the past.

21) Jake Delhomme
Bottom Line: Delhomme is extremely unreliable, but his heaves down field often find their way into Steve Smith’s hands. Delhomme is a high variance player and is more the hander offer than the thrower in Carolina’s offense, but he does have the potential to ride the amazing Smith.

22) Marc Bulger
Bottom Line: Bulger has completely collapsed the past couple seasons. If SJax goes down again, Bulger should be dropped immediately.

23) Shaun Hill
Bottom Line: If he wins the starting job over Alex Smith, consider that his 13 TDs and 115 rushing yards were over only 9 games.

24) Brady Quinn
Bottom Line: Braylon Edwards will need to come back with a vengeance in order for Quinn to have success, and even that may not be enough for Quinn to post good numbers this season. Derek Anderson could easily steal the job from Quinn in the preseason and just as easily take over the job in the regular season.

25) Jamarcus Russell
Bottom Line: Who knows? He has the talent.

26) Matt Leinart
Bottom Line: If Warner gets hurt, Leinart will inherit Arizona’s weapons.

27) Chad Pennington
Bottom Line: Game manager Pennington has absolutely zero fantasy upside. His okay numbers last year will even be hard to repeat.

28) Joe Flacco
Bottom Line: Despite the media’s adoration, Joe Flacco has an Eli Manning role for Baltimore and is quite raw

29) It really shouldn’t matter

Numbers Do Lie

2009-07-10T12:53:00.000-07:00

By winning Sunday’s incredible Wimbledon final for his record 15th major, Roger Federer, in most people’s eyes, “clinched” his spot as the greatest tennis player ever. The fact that his victory followed up the completion of his Career Grand Slam at the French Open made Federer’s “greatest ever” claim even more of a certainty.
While I agree that Federer is probably the greatest tennis player, I don’t understand how the validation of his “greatest ever” status was when he reached the magic number of 15, or of 14. To be considered the “greatest ever” is a subjective statement, so why are we trying to objectify it with magic numbers? While numbers, in the form of statistics and records, are important metrics in evaluating the performance of athletes, sometimes we lose sight of the fact that numbers are there to assist in the evaluation, and not to tell the whole story.

Much like the mistakes of Wall Street quants that helped to cause the financial meltdown, solely trying to interpret statistics without considering the big picture can result in poor assessments of players’ performances. Let’s say Rafael Nadal was 100% healthy for the French Open and Wimbledon and won both events. Assuming Federer played just as well as he did in the past couple months, how does that change Roger Federer as a player? It doesn’t change him at all. However, how does that change the perception of Roger Federer as a player? He would have been stuck at 13 Grand Slam titles, and not considered the greatest ever yet.

The desire to objectify subjective designations and the ensuing abuse of numbers is not confined to tennis. Last season, when Francisco Rodriguez broke the save record, he finished 3rd in the AL Cy Young voting, with 7 second place votes and 11 third place votes. Meanwhile, Mariano Rivera finished with just 3 third place votes, despite posting a lower E.R.A. (1.40 to 2.24), lower WHIP (0.67 to 1.29), more innings pitched (70.2 to 68.1), and a higher save percentage (39/40 to 62/67). Mo also pitched in more pressure games than did K-Rod, as the Angels ran away with the AL West last year. Unfortunately, we have put so much weight into the saves statistic that voters will blindly vote for the man who broke the record. What if K-Rod had finished 1 save shy of the record, and blew 3 less saves? Despite having a better performance, he would have had less saves, and subsequently less votes.
The number of saves a closer accrues in the course of a season has much less to do with him, and more on the number of opportunities he receives and the quality/pressure of those opportunities. Numerically, a save that protects a 3-run lead counts just as much as a save to protect a 1-run lead. Likewise, a save against your division rival’s heart of the order counts just as much on the stat sheet as a save against a losing team’s bottom of the order. A save is still a save, just as winning a major by beating Nadal counts just as much as winning a major by beating Soderling or Roddick.

Still, the use of saves may not be nearly as ludicrous as the use of wins, which has historically been perhaps the most important statistic in Cy Young voting. How else could Bartolo Colon have stolen the 2005 Cy Young over Johan Santana? Colon had 17 first-place votes to Santana’s 3, and had 118 voting points to Santana’s 51. Below are their 2005 statistics.

Player	W	L	CG	SHO	IP	K	ERA	WHIP
Colon	21	8	2	0	222.2	157	3.48	1.16
Santana	16	7	3	2	231.2	238	2.87	0.97

Santana deserved that Cy Young, and most of the numbers backed him up. However, voters oversimplified the statistics, improperly using the number of wins as the main statistic in evaluating the pitchers’ performances.
In basketball, the 6 NBA titles are what many use to separate Michael Jordan from Kobe Bryant. So if Kobe wins 3 more titles with him as the main man in L.A., many at the moment Kobe wins that 7th championship will say that he has eclipsed MJ as the greatest player ever. While they may have an argument, I would not say that the argument should be centered solely on the magic number of 7. If you can win 6 titles, you can probably win 7 given the proper conditions. Lebron has won 0 titles despite extremely clutch play in the playoffs over his career (2007 NBA Playoffs were incredible). I would not hold him below Dwayne Wade in any way just because Wade has won a title with Shaq in Miami.

I don’t mean to suggest that numbers cannot be extremely useful in evaluating athletes’ performances, but merely think that they should be taken with a grain of salt. We could create much more complicated statistics that take into account a massive amount of factors, but these would be impractical or hotly debated in their accuracy (e.g. BCS). Trying to oversimplify subjective classifications into records and numbers could result in missing the whole picture.

P.S. The word greatness is so vague that it makes it even more of a crime to simplify it to a record. Does greatness refer to who dominated his era the most, who performed at a high level for the longest time, or who at his prime played at the highest level?

P.S. In tennis, it’s impossible to compare the wood racquet era with the current era. If Rod Laver was born in 1985, would he even qualify to play in Grand Slams? His 5’8” frame may not have had the power necessary to compete in today’s game, and would not have had the wingspan to approach the net as Laver did in his day.

Why the Lions and Jets were Right to Draft Stafford and Sanchez

2009-06-11T16:23:00.000-07:00

The high risk involved when drafting a first round quarterback or even a top-5 caliber pick is well documented. Just search "first round quarterbacks" on Google if you want to get an idea. However, is it really that bad?

News came out today that Mark Sanchez signed a 5 year, $50 million dollar deal (with the potential to be worth $60 million with incentives), with $28 million in guaranteed money. Of course this is after Matthew Stafford signed a six-year contract worth up to $78 million with $41.7 million guaranteed. Now I do think these guys are being paid too much. Stafford has yet to play a down and has more guaranteed money in a contract than anyone has ever had.

Still, the issue of the amount of money a top 5 pick receives should not be confused with the issue of whether or not a quarterback is drafted with the pick. Even if the Lions selected Jason Smith, Smith also would be paid probably more than any other #1 overall pick in history (though perhaps not as much as Stafford). Inflation happens, the NFL salary cap increases, and so naturally salaries of #1 picks will increase over time.

It is easy to accuse the Lions and Jets of putting tens of millions of dollars into a risky investment. The quarterback could bust and then the team would have to deal with salary cap troubles; quarterbacks taken early often fail. Again, just search “first round quarterbacks” on Google.

Another key piece of evidence that Lions and Jets could be making the wrong decision is that teams this decade have perhaps been overvaluing quarterbacks. History shows teams have been taking quarterbacks much more frequently with early picks recently. Since 1998, 9 of the 12 #1 overall picks have been quarterbacks. Before that, only 7 quarterbacks were drafted #1 since the AFL-NFL merger! Those picks came in 1993 (Bledsoe), 1989 (Aikman), 1987 (Testaverde), 1983 (Elway), 1975 (Bartkowski), 1971 (Plunkett), and 1970 (Bradshaw). Notice that the only complete bust was Testaverde for Tampa Bay in 1987, and there were several legends in that group. Maybe teams knew when to draft quarterbacks back then, and teams are just being plain stupid now.

Now I want to support the Lions and Jets.

Let’s make the argument that quarterbacks were simply undervalued before recently. The argument for taking a quarterback with an early pick centers around the fact that the quarterback is the most important position on almost every team. While drafting a player of another position may carry less risk, that player doesn't have the potential to carry a team to the Super Bowl. If you have a bad quarterback, you can forget about your Super Bowl hopes. Just look at Minnesota, which has the makings of a great team with the exception of the quarterback position. Now, Minnesota is desperately trying to recruit Brett Favre, who is coming off an atrocious season.

Let’s say you are the GM of an NFL team with the #1 overall pick. What situation would you rather have? A player that has a 75% chance to be Orlando Pace (1st overall pick in 1997) and a small chance of being a complete bust or a 25% chance of being Peyton Manning and a 20% chance of being a complete bust? I’d take the latter situation.
I know that Orlando Pace has had an incredible career, is a 5-time First-team All-Pro, and a certain Hall of Famer. The left tackle position is extremely important, as it protects the quarterback’s blind side. However, Peyton Manning is going to do a lot more for my franchise in terms of excitement and success, obviously giving me a MUCH greater chance at achieving my Super Bowl aspirations. No matter how good my left tackle is, the potential positive impact he can have on my offense will pale in comparison to that of my quarterback.

To show the importance of a quarterback, consider the Super Bowl quarterbacks of this century: Warner, McNair, Dilfer, Collins, Brady, Brad Johnson, Gannon, McNabb, Roethlisberger, Hasselbeck, Peyton, Rex Grossman, and Eli. 8 of those 13 quarterbacks were drafted in the first round. In addition, the overall picks of those 8 quarterbacks were generally very early, being 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 11, and 22 (Grossman). Good luck to teams who don’t have first round quarterbacks and need to look for 6th round gems (Brady, Hasselbeck). Also, sorry but the Arena League has folded if you are hoping for the next Kurt Warner. As for trading for a Jay Cutler, it's not often that a top quarterback gets traded in his prime.

There should be a lot of quarterback busts, and if there aren’t, something is wrong. Teams should be willing to take greater risks with a quarterback, because a successful quarterback yields greater reward than any other position, and a Super Bowl victory is a much greater high than having the worst record in the league is a low. If half of the quarterbacks taken #1 overall were legends before recently, then teams were definitely undervaluing quarterbacks.

Good job Detroit Lions and New York Jets.

The Merits of Heavy 3-Point Shooting

2009-06-01T18:17:00.000-07:00

During the regular season, Orlando averaged 26.2 3-point shots per game, which was the 2nd most in the league behind the Knicks (27.9). 26.2 threes is a lot, as the team that shot the 3rd most threes (Nets) shot 5 less threes per game, and the league average was 18.1 threes per game.

Usually, a team that “lives or dies by the 3-pointer” is not commended for their heavy perimeter shooting mentality. However, there are two sides to the story. When a team relies on lower percentage shots, especially perimeter shooting, to account for much of its scoring, it plays with a high variance on the number of points it can score on any given night. 3-point shooting for the Magic accounts for 29.7 percent of its scoring, the highest percentage in the league (league average is 19.9 percent).

This high variance is dangerous in 2 ways, one good one bad:
1) The Magic are more vulnerable to lesser teams. If the Magic have an off night shooting, they could lose to teams that they should not lose to. For example, when Orlando shot 5 for 18 from the 3-point land in Game 1 against Philadelphia, they surprisingly lost to the 76ers. By contrast, the 76ers shot 7-12 from 3-point land that game.
2) The Magic are more dangerous to the Cavs and the Lakers. In the Cleveland series, Orlando’s sharpshooters were hot. In games 1 to 6, they shot 9/20 (45.0%), 10/23 (43.5), 6/17 (35.3), 17/38 (44.7), 8/25 (32.0), and 12/29 (41.4). The losses came in game 2 (Lebron’s shot) and game 5, an off night shooting. I don’t think that Orlando is a better team than Cleveland, but they were able to squeeze out victories despite Lebron’s amazing games (with the exception of the blowout in game 6) with great shooting nights. Their actual offensive output, due to higher variance, can be much greater than their average/expected offensive output.
When people blindly criticize teams that shoot a lot of 3’s, they fail to take into account that in the NBA, teams’ expected value on a 3-point shot (3-point percentage*3) is higher than teams’ expected value on 2-point shots (2-point percentage*2) almost all of the time. For this season, on average, the first number is 1.10, and the second number is 0.97. The only team that has a higher expected value for 2-pointers than 3-pointers are the 76ers, who only shoot 13.1 3-pointers per game (2nd to last in the league).

Here is a preview of the 3-point shooting for the finals

	Magic		Lakers		League Average
	Reg	Post	Reg	Post	Reg	Post
Made	10.0	8.6	6.7	7.1	6.7	6.4
Attempted	26.2	23.4	18.5	18.8	18.1	18.3
Percentage	38.1	36.7	36.1	37.9	36.5	34.9
% of pts by 3	29.7	26.2	18.8	20.7	19.9	20.3
3-pt EV	1.143	1.101	1.083	1.137	1.096	1.048
2-pt fg%	49.4	50.9	50.5	49.5	48.5	47.6
2-pt EV	0.988	1.017	1.009	0.990	.971	0.952

NOTE: each team weighed equally in the league average column

For the Magic to win this series over what is probably a more complete Lakers team, they have to have some hot 3-point shooting. If Jameer Nelson came back as he apparently might (45.3% from 3, 2nd best in the league), that would certainly help. However, a big worry is that Rashard Lewis, who led the league in 3-pointers made and attempted in the regular season by shooting 7.0 threes per game at a 39.7% clip (down to 1.9/4.8, 39.1% in playoffs), will now be guarded by a more athletic power forward if Lamar Odom is on the court for the Lakers. Contrast Odom to Big Baby or Anderson Varejao (gag).
Still, even if Lewis will be better covered, Orlando has more than enough shooters to pick up the slack. They’ll need to in order to beat the Lakers.

GICNIPs: Players who are Great in College, Nothing in the Pros

2009-03-17T14:19:00.000-07:00

Tim Tebow is one of the greatest college football players of all time. However, when a friend of mine tried to tell me how Tebow would be one of the best NFL quarterbacks as well, I stopped him short. The professional game, in football and basketball, requires spectacular talent in order to excel. College athletes, while still requiring great talent to excel, can do so without the same skill set required for the pros. As with many things, the key motto here is "it's all relative." In this case, an athlete's performance is relative to the skill level of his opposition.

There appears to be a major hole in what I'm saying: If Tim Tebow is a great college player, wouldn't he also hypothetically be one of the best professional players of all the current college players? Thus, shouldn't he eventually become a great professional player, seeing as practically all NFL players played college football?

No. By "relative," I mean that there are certain threshold requirements for success at each level. Let's say, for sake of simplicity, that we measure specific skills (speed, IQ, height, vertical, strength, etc) on a scale of 0.0 (worst) to 10.0 (best). On the scales, let's have 3.0 correlate to the average ability of a major college conference football/basketball player, and 7.0 correlate to the average ability of an NFL/NBA player.
Now, let's say a college football player is a 7.0 for speed. That makes him very fast compared to his fellow NCAA athletes. When running to the outside, he'll get to the corner before the defender most of the time and streak down the field. Unfortunately, once this player moves to the pros, he'll realize that NFL defenses are far faster than NCAA defenses, and his attempts to get to the corner will be foiled. Many of Ron Dayne's Wisconsin runs in this video that went for touchdowns or long gains would not have been nearly as successful in the pros, and indeed they weren't. Comparatively, in basketball, a foward who is 6'8" may be able to fight for boards effectively in college, but for a 6'8" forward to be a successful rebounder will be a great challenge in the NBA.

The point I am trying to get at is that a rating of 7.0 versus 9.0 may not make a tremendous difference in college, while it makes a world of difference in the pros. All of Ron Dayne's long touchdown runs in college would still be long touchdown runs even if Dayne's speed was that of Chris Johnson's. The added speed would certainly be a help in college and make Dayne even more of a force, but Dayne's speed was enough for the job as it was. Clearly, the New York Giants completely ignored this fact, drafting Dayne with the 11th overall pick, enamored with his college fame and Heisman trophy.

Dayne is my example of a GICNIP, a player who is great in college, but nothing in the pros. His talent level was simply not sufficient to succeed at the next level. Other GICNIPs include Michael Vick and Vince Young, who could not overcome their lack of passing accuracy and football IQ, Jason White, who could not overcome his lack of natural passing ability (horrible mechanics), Adam Morrison, J.J. Redick, and Casey Jacobsen, who could not overcome their lack of athleticism, and many others you can probably think of.

If a player is to excel in the pros, he needs to either be consistently above 7.0 in his skills, or have at least one skill that is truly phenomenal (extremely fast i.e. Joey Galloway, extremely good shooter i.e. Ray Allen).
The classic GICNIP is Tyler Hansborough. Undoubtedly, Hansborough is one of the best college basketball players in the game, but his game will not translate to professional basketball. He doesn't have great athleticism (not that quick, not that explosive, can't jump that high), doesn't have much size (only 6'8"), and while he overpowers a lot of defenders to score now, that tactic will certainly not work at the next level.

For football, Tim Tebow is the next classic GICNIP. While he can throw a good deep ball and has good size, parts of his game surely will not translate to being a professional quarterback (they are below 7.0 on my scale). His passing mechanics are poor, and he won't have enough accuracy or touch to succeed as a passer in the NFL. Maybe Tebow will find another position, but otherwise he will be a peasant's Michael Vick.

Fantasy Baseball Draft Cheat Sheet

2009-02-17T22:32:00.000-08:00

Here are the cheat sheets I created for fantasy baseball drafts. There is a cheat sheet for each position then the prerankings I use for the draft. These sheets are made for 12-team Rotisserie fantasy leagues with roster positions C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, OF, OF, OF, Util, SP, SP, RP, RP, P, P, P, BN, BN, BN, BN, BN, DL.

Generally, in drafts, I try to make sure I don't miss in the early rounds. It's best to take safer players because if you miss on your early round draft pick then you have a lot to make up. For instance, I would rather take the more proven Chase Utley than Ian Kinsler/Pedroia and I would rather take the more proven Johan Santana or CC Sabathia rather than the third year pitcher Tim Lincecum.

Meanwhile, in the later rounds, I draft solely on potential, favoring high risk high reward players. The theory is that if you miss in the later rounds, it is not a big deal because you can always find an average player through free agency and waivers. Therefore, in the latter half of the draft, I like taking pitchers with high strikeout rates (such as Oliver Perez) or hitters with a lot of power potential (such as Pat Burrell) or steals potential (Willy Taveras). I would avoid low upside players such as Placido Polanco because a combination of free agents would probably give me similar value.

Note that the cheat sheets are my guide, but drafting may not strictly follow them as statistical needs arise. The later stages of the overall prerankings I would often stray from. Note that the differing colors show different tiers.

Catchers

McCann
Martin
Mauer
Soto
Victor
Doumit
Napoli	Major Power, potential
Iannetta	can he build on a good debut season
Bengie Molina	34 right now, been so consistent last 6 years
Wieters	Upside Tempting
Sandoval	Upside Tempting
Posada	37 right now, very scary pick
Ramon Hernandez
Shoppach	Victor will play 1b
Jeff Clement	potential
Chris Snyder
Pierzynski	don't see upside
Dioner Navarro

First Base

Pujols
Miguel Cabrera
Teixeira
Ryan Howard	167 to 144 to 124 last three years, worrisome
Lane Berkman	cooled off a lot in the second half
Prince Fielder
Justin Morneau
Kevin Youkilis
Adrian Gonzalez
Chris Davis
Derrek Lee
Carlos Pena
Joey Votto
Garrett Atkins
Aubrey Huff
Adam Dunn	now in Washington power #s will be hard to match
Carlos Delgado
Jorge Cantu
Connor Jackson	No power though
James Loney	No power though
Paul Konerko
Adam Laroche
Pablo Sandoval
Carlos Guillen
Billy Butler
Mike Jacobs
Hank Blalock
Jason Giambi
Casey Kotchman

Second Base

Chase Utley	a surer thing than Pedroia or Kinsler
Ian Kinsler	MVP of fantasy before injury last year
Dustin Pedroia	runs, average
Brandon Phillips
Brian Roberts
Dan Uggla	27, 31, and 32 homers last 3 ssns
Alexei Ramirez
Robinson Cano
Chone Figgins
Howie Kendrick	has yet to do anything
Mike Aviles
Jose Lopez
Mark DeRosa
Rickie Weeks
Placido Polanco
Kelly Johnson
Kazuo Matsui

Third Base

Arod
Wright
Cabrera
Longoria
Youkilis
Aramis
Chipper
Chris Davis
Atkins
Huff
Zimmerman	injured last year, will have Dunn this year
Chone
Beltre
Alex Gordon
Jorge Cantu
Sandoval
Edwin Encarnacion
Carlos Guillen
Mark Reynolds
DeRosa
Mora
Troy Glaus	sure power
Mike Lowell
Blalock
Kouzmanoff
Brandon Wood	it wasn’t long ago…

Shortstop

Hanley
Jose Reyes
Rollins
Furcal
Alexei Ramirez
Tulowitzki
Stephen Drew
Michael Young
Jeter	Decline
Hardy
Peralta
Mike Aviles
Tejada
Theriot
Elvis Andrus	upside
Khalil Greene
Orlando Cabrera
Jed Lowrie
Edgar Renteria
Brandon Wood

Outfielders

Sizemore	Adam Dunn
Braun	Damon
Hamilton	Ibanez
Soriano	Vernon Wells
Beltran	Nelson Cruz
BJ Upton	Rick Ankiel
Carlos Lee	Chris Young
Manny	Andre Ethier
Ichiro	Brad Hawpe
Crawford	Justin Upton
Quentin	Adam Jones
Holliday	Jayson Werth
Markakis	Pat Burrell
Jason Bay	Conor Jackson
Matt Kemp	Milledge
Alex Rios	Matsui
Granderson	Delmon Young
McLouth	Mark DeRosa
Ellsbury	Xavier Nady
Vlady	Willy Taveras
Victorino	Adam Lind
Corey Hart	Choo
Hunter Pence	Bourn
Bobby Abreu	Francoeur
Maggs	Cust
Jay Bruce	Maybin
Dye	Hermida
Ludwick	Carlos Gomez
Alexei Ramirez	Gary Sheffield
Milton Bradley	Mike Cameron
Torii Hunter	Juan Pierre
	Chase Headley

Closers

Papelbon
Nathan
Mariano
Brad Lidge
Soria
Krod	should get many opportunities
Fuentes	Arredondo solid setup man
Broxton
Jenks
Marmol	anticipating beating out Gregg
Kerry Wood	health concerns
Jose Valverde
BJ Ryan
Matt Capps
Francisco Cordero	job secure
Heath Bell	job secure
Trevor Hoffman	job secure
Frank Francisco
Brian Wilson
Chad Qualls	Jon Rauch and Tony Pena scare
Mike Gonzalez	Rafael Soriano lurks
Huston Street	should beat out Corpas
Chris Ray
Joey Devine	over Brad Ziegler
Chris Perez	fights with Jason Motte
Brandon Lyon	Rodney, Zumaya lurk
Matt Lindstrom	dangerous, not secure
Percival	dangerous, not secure
Joel Hanrahan
Seattle closer?	Mark Lowe? Walker?
Brad Ziegler
Jason Motte
Manny Corpas	depends on Huston Street
Kevin Gregg	depends on Marmol
Rafael Soriano	depends on Mike Gonzalez
Dan Wheeler	b/c Percival sucks
Jose Arredondo	depends on Fuentes
Fernando Rodney
Tony Pena
Rafael Betancourt

Starting Pitchers

Johan	too consistent
CC	20+ wins seems highly likely
Lincecum	one year, and small frame heavy workload
Webb	consistency
Hamels	more wins this year
Jake Peavy	Ks
Halladay
Haren
Roy Oswalt
John Lackey
Liriano
Felix
James Shields
Ervin Santana
Beckett	wins
Kazmir
Greinke
Dice-K	getting better
Billingsley
Cliff Lee	the next esteban loaiza?
Gallardo
AJ Burnett
Edinson Volquez
Rich Harden	top 10 when he's healthy
Ricky Nolasco
Scott Baker
Javier Vazquez	Ks
Matt Cain
Ted Lilly
Erik Bedard	high upside
Joba Chamberlain	great situation
Jon Lester
Matt Garza	where did those minor league Ks go?
Ryan Dempster
Aaron Harang	last year could have been a fluke
Carlos Zambrano	ERA rose from 2.76 to 3.91 in last 8 starts
Adam Wainwright
Chris Young
Max Scherzer	strikeouts galore, high upside
Josh Johnson
Justin Verlander
Lowe
Slowey
John Danks
Clayton Kershaw
Randy Johnson
Jered Weaver
Brett Myers
Chris Carpenter	high upside
Cueto
Gil Meche
John Maine
Ubaldo Jimenez
Brandon Morrow
Oliver Perez	always the same story: potential
Wandy Rodriguez	home, road splits staggering difference
David Price
Manny Para
Jonathan Sanchez
Carmona
Anibal Sanchez
Brad Penny
Jason Schmidt
Ian Snell
John Smoltz
Homer Bailey

Overall Prerankings

Pujols	Derrek Lee	Gordon	Carlos Gomez
Hanley	Furcal	Cantu	Sheffield
Arod	Alexei	Hardy	Manny Para
Reyes	Uggla	Peralta	J. Sanchez
Wright	Kazmir	Ankiel	Carmona
Sizemore	Jenks	C Young (OF)	Anibal Sanchez
Miguel	Marmol	Ethier	Brad Penny
Braun	Wood	Hawpe	Jason Schmidt
Rollins	Valverde	Upton	Ian Snell
Teixeira	Tulowitzki	Kendrick	Carlos Guillen
Johan	Drew	Jon Lester	Greene
CC	M. Young	Garza	Brandon Wood
Utley	Ervin	Dempster	Encarnacion
Hamilton	Beckett	Mike Aviles	Mark Reynolds
Kinsler	Greinke	Harang	Mora
Lincecum	Dice-K	Zambrano	Glaus
Soriano	Billingsley	Wainwright	Billy Butler
Beltran	David Ortiz	Adam Jones	Mike Jacobs
Pedroia	Atkins	Jayson Werth	Blalock
Howard	Cliff Lee	Pat Burrell	Giambi
BJ Upton	Gallardo	Connor Jackson	Ramon Hernan
Carlos Lee	AJ Burnett	Chris Young	Shoppach
Manny	Volquez	Scherzer	Jeff Clement
Berkman	Victorino	Josh Johnson	Chris Snyder
Fielder	Pena	Verlander
Webb	Votto	Lowe
Hamels	Huff	Slowey
Longoria	Hart	Milledge
Phillips	Pence	Matsui
Roberts	Abreu	Delmon Young
Morneau	Maggs	Jose Lopez
Ichiro	Bruce	Mark DeRosa
Peavy	Dye	Nady
Halladay	Ludwick	Taveras
Haren	Cano	Adam Lind
Youkilis	Chone	Danks
Crawford	Harden	Kershaw
Aramis	Nolasco	Randy Johnson
Quentin	Baker	James Loney
Holliday	Vazquez	Konerko
Markakis	BJ Ryan	LaRoche
Bay	Capps	Iannetta
Papelbon	Cain	Molina
Nathan	Lilly	Wieters
Mariano	Bedard	Sandoval
Lidge	Zimmerman	Rickie Weeks
Oswalt	Cordero	Tejada
Lackey	Heath Bell	Jered Weaver
Chipper	Hoffman	Brett Myers
Adrian	Bradley	Carpenter
McCann	Torii	Cueto
Martin	Dunn	Meche
Mauer	Delgado	Maine
Soto	Damon	Ubaldo
Liriano	Ibanez	Morrow
Felix	Vernon Wells	Oliver Perez
Shields	Jeter	Wandy
Soria	Nelson Cruz	David Price
Krod	Joba	Posada
Kemp	Francisco	Lindstrom
Rios	Wilson	Percival
Granderson	Qualls	Hanrahan
McLouth	Mike Gonzalez	Choo
Ellsbury	Huston Street	Michael Bourn
Chris Davis	Napoli	Francoeur
Vlady	Chris Ray	Jack Cust
Victor	Joey Devine	Maybin
Fuentes	Chris Perez	Hermida
Broxton	Brandon Lyon	Theriot
Doumit	Beltre	Elvis Andrus

NFL Future Book Odds for Next Season

2009-01-29T15:13:00.000-08:00

Although the Super Bowl has yet to be played, many fans such as myself are looking forward to next year already. While looking at the NFL Future Book Odds at VegasInsider, I noticed a few places I would like to place bets.

First of all, it's important to realize that if you sum the probabilities suggested by the posted online odds at a site such as VegasInsider, they add up to more than 1. For next season's AFC Championship winner, the probabilities add up to 1.43. For next season's NFC Championship winner, the probabilities add up 1.46. For the Super Bowl XLIV winner, the probabilities add up to 1.62. This suggests that the probabilities (and therefore the odds) are too good, and conducive to betting.

TOP BET TO MAKE (Most Underrated Team): Minnesota Vikings (11/1 to win NFC Championship)
This team has great talent on defense, a great offensive line, Bernard Berrian, Chester Taylor, and of course Adrian Peterson. Coming off a season in which they went 10-6 and won the NFC North, it seems strange that they are considered less likely to be NFC Champions than the Packers and the Saints.

Of course the main problem, and a substantial problem, is the quarterback position. Any Tarvaris Jackson team should have less than 11/1 odds of winning a conference championship, no matter how good his team's defense and running game may be. However, Minnesota realizes this problem as well, and should be looking for a quarterback in the coming months.

The Vikings are expected to save $13 million or so by cutting ties with free agent center Matt Birk, free agent safety Darren Sharper, and free agent tight end Jim Kleinsasser. This should open up space for a needed new starting quarterback. With news today that Donovan McNabb may want out of Philadelphia (from ESPN) and that Tom Brady looks to be ready for the season opener, thoughts of a McNabb-led or Matt Cassel-led Minnesota Vikings team substantially change the odds in my mind. If those two prime options don't work out, perhaps the Vikings could take a chance with Matt Hasselbeck, Derek Anderson, Marc Bulger, or Sage Rosenfels.

It makes sense to bet on the Vikings in hopes that they find someone to fill the quarterback void. Anybody would be a substantial upgrade over the current situation.

TOP BET TO AVOID (Most Overrated Team): Miami Dolphins (12/1 to win AFC Championship, 25/1 to win Super Bowl XLIV)
For all the media attention that they received for their turnaround from last season, the Dolphins really were not as good as their record indicated. Their last 7 wins were by 2 against Seattle, 2 against Oakland, 4 against St. Louis, 13 against Buffalo, 5 against San Francisco, 7 against Kansas City and 7 against the Jets. Note that all those teams had losing records with the exception of the Jets, who were playing horribly at the end of the season. With the exception of the game against the Bills, the Dolphins could have easily lost the other 6 games. Meanwhile, there was a 20 point loss to the Patriots in the second half of the season.

Aside from the running back position, this team has very little firepower, including Chad Pennington's arm. While their ability to not turn the ball over this season was impressive, the fact that little about this team poses challenges for the opposition makes it almost impossible for them to compete against the giants of the AFC next year. 11-5 was a fluke.

2008 Fantasy Football Season Lookback, What to Look for in 2009

2008-12-24T13:26:00.000-08:00

With the exception of leagues that go into week 17 (poorly set up leagues), the 2008 Fantasy Football Season is over. Here are the fantasy football awards for 2008 (rankings, points in terms of Yahoo default scoring and rank).

2008 Fantasy Football MVP: DeAngelo Williams (1337 rush yrds, 121 receiving yrds, 20 total tds)
Yahoo Rank: 1
After not scoring a td or topping 8 points in the first 4 games of the season, Williams went on a tear, as he only had one other game without a td all season. He single-handedly won many fantasy leagues with his week 16 performance (108 yrds, 4 tds), and ranks #1 in all of yahoo despite having an ADP of 113.4 (37th back selected on average). He wasn't even the top running back drafted on his team, as 1st round pick Jonathan Stewart had an ADP of 87.9.

2009 Outlook:
Williams figures to still be in a significant timeshare with Jonathan Stewart next year, and will be hard-pressed to post anywhere near similar numbers in 2009. He's a player to avoid on draft day next year.

MVP First Runner-Up: Aaron Rodgers (248.7 y/g, 25 tds, 13 ints, 208 yrds rushing, 4 tds)
Yahoo Rank: 4
Despite Green Bay's record this year, Aaron Rodgers showed he is going to be their quarterback for a long time, as well as a fantasy force. With weapons such as Jennings and Driver, Rodgers seemed to be in a perfect position to thrive this year, and was one of my favorite players to target in drafts. With an ADP of 121.4 (24th quarterback selected), Rodgers was the ultimate steal. He scored the second most points of any player (behind Brees).

2009 Outlook:
Rodgers should be able to post similar numbers and is a player to draft confidently.

MVP 2nd Runner-Up: Kurt Warner (288.0 yards/game, 26 tds, 13 int, 0 rushing points)
Yahoo Rank: 11
I made sure to grab Warner in all my leagues this year (along with Leinart), as he was being severely undervalued with an ADP of of 115.8 (23rd qb selected). Following a 27 td season last year and an aging Edge, Warner's season this year shouldn't have come as too much of a surprise. With Boldin, Fitzgerald, and absolutely no running game, Warner delivered huge numbers for Arizona and playoff fantasy teams. Hopefully you sat him against New England in week 16 though after reports of snow and that he would sit in the second half.

2009 Outlook:
Warner should post similar numbers again if Boldin and Fitzgerald are healthy. However, Arizona will probably try to run the ball more next year so expect less yardage.

Other Runner-Ups: Michael Turner, Drew Brees, Phillip Rivers, Matt Forte, Steve Slaton, Chris Johnson, Thomas Jones, Matt Cassel

2008 Fantasy Football LVPs (excluding Tom Brady):
Tied-LVP: LT, Steven Jackson, Addai
In the average draft, LT was drafted first, Jackson drafted 3rd, and Addai drafted fifth. In actual rank over the season, LT was 21st, Jackson was 50th, and Addai was 111th.

LT has only averaged 3.6 ypc this year, has scored only 9 total tds this year, and has struggled with his toe. Although LT has accumulated 1014 yards and 426 receiving yards this season, those numbers are also far below expectations. San Diego has turned into a passing team (perhaps due to LT's dropoff), as Rivers throws for about 60 more yards per game as he did last year and already has 32 passing tds on the season.

Jackson and Addai have both dealt with injuries, and this is the main cause for their lackluster numbers. However, Jackson, even when healthy, has fewer scoring opportunities due to the Ram's inept passing game.

2009 Outlook:
All three backs should bounce back next year to be worthy of first round selections.
Now that Rivers has proven himself to be a top quarterback in the league, defenses will have to fear him next year, opening up opportunities for a healthier LT, who is still LT.
Jackson and Addai will both only be 26 next year. St. Louis's offense has to score more than the 13.7 pts/game they did this year, and Addai is still in a perfect situation in Indianapolis.

Runner-Ups: Cincinnati and Cleveland Players
Braylon Edwards, Housh, Ocho Cinco, Jamal Lewis, Palmer, Derek Anderson, and Winslow were all drafted in the first 4 maybe 5 rounds in drafts. Ohio's teams both seemed poised to be offensive juggernauts this season, but instead Cleveland scored 15.5 pts per game and Cincinnati scored 12.5 points per game due to a combination of injuries and overall inept play.
2009 Outlook:
Avoid all these players. Also don't expect too much from Cedric Benson and his 3.4 ypc (his week 16 performance came against the Browns remember)

Other LVP Runner-Ups: Roethlisberger, Holt, McGahee, Plax

Rookies of the Year: Matt Forte, Steve Slaton, and Chris Johnson
All were top 10 rbs this season and will have high upside for next year.

10 Players to Draft Next Season:
1) Reggie Bush--injury concerns will scare off many from drafting him, but he showed he can be extremely effective when healthy by averaging 40 rush yrds and 60 receiving yrds per game to go along with 5 tds in the 6 weeks before he got injured.
2) Chris Johnson--upside
3) Marques Colston--if he was healthy all season this year, his numbers would've been top 5 WR worthy in the New Orleans passing attack.
4) Bernard Berrian--upside
5) Matt Schaub--if he's healthy and Andre Johnson is healthy, he'll throw 25+ tds
6) Roethlisberger--offensive line has to be better next year
7) Matt Jones--made huge strides this year
8) Ryan Grant--unlucky that he's only scored 5 tds so far this season
9) Tony Gonzalez--so certain at a thin position
10) Antonio Gates--ditto

10 players to avoid next season:
1) Tyler Thigpen--54.9 completion percentage, 75.8 qbrating (last 4 games: 72.5)
2) Tavaris Jackson--that qbrating is deceiving, since the Vikings don't throw the ball frequently
3) Brian Westbrook--if he falls to you late in the first round you have to take him, but he's been playing hurt for a number of years now and will be 30 next year
4) DeAngelo Williams--fantasy MVP won't do it again (above)
5) Thomas Jones--15 tds is a fluke
6) Marion Barber--Felix Jones and now Tashard Choice
7) Cedric Benson--see above
8) Marvin Harrison--declining
9) Lance Moore--unless Colston and Bush both get hurt again
10) Tight Ends other than Gonzo, Gates, Clark, Witten--don't reach they're all pretty much the same

Will the Real Brett Favre Please Stand Up One Last Time

2008-12-21T21:39:00.000-08:00

Next week, the Miami Dolphins will travel to play the New York Jets in an AFC East showdown with major playoff implications. This game may be Brett Favre's last game ever as an NFL quarterback; I hope that just one last time, the great Brett Favre will show up.

I remember a couple weeks ago, after Favre played poorly in a loss to Denver, my friend Zach and I discussed the success of Brett Favre over his career. Zach told me, "My dad and I both agree that Brett Favre has always been a horrible quarterback. He just throws it up there and sees what happens. That's why he's thrown so many interceptions. You'll never convince me he's a good quarterback." Despite the fact that Zach was a recruited quarterback and his dad was a former NFL wideout (who once caught 554 yards in a season and went to the Super Bowl), I thought my opinion was surely correct. Surely Brett Favre, the 7-time All-Pro, 3-time MVP, and Super Bowl champion, was one of the greatest quarterbacks to ever play the game.

Unfortunately, Favre's play in recent weeks has fuelled his doubters and saddened his fans. As a general football fan, it also saddens me to see one of the game's legendary figures possibly leave the league playing so poorly. In the last 4 games, Favre has hardly looked like an NFL quarterback, much less a great NFL quarterback.

It seems like ages ago that Favre threw for 6 touchdowns against Arizona in week 4. After that game, he had thrown for 12 tds on the season compared to 4 interceptions. Brett was the same Brett as always, even at age 39. He was still firing bullets and bombs downfield, still grinning as if he was a rookie.

5 weeks ago, the Jets were 8-3, seemed primed for a Super Bowl run after upsetting the undefeated Tennessee Titans, and Favre was receiving consideration as a possible MVP candidate. 5 games later, the Jets, at 9-6, seem primed for an offseason of disappointment, and Favre deserves much of the blame.

Even in the Jets win against the Bills, Favre struggled to lead his team down the field to win the game at the end of the 4th quarter, missing wide open receivers all over the place. Luckily, bone-headed JP Losman eventually bailed Favre out with a miracle fumble. Yesterday against the woeful Seahawks, there was no such luck, and it's becoming increasingly difficult to stand up for the lovable Favre. In the past 4 games, Favre has posted qb ratings of 60.9, 60.8, 61.4, 48.7. He has thrown 6 inteceptions to 1 touchdown, and has now thrown an NFL-high 19 interceptions. If this is how Brett Favre is going to go out, it's a shame for everyone. He would go out as the player who destroyed his team and took them out of the playoff picture.
His doubters would have the final say. They would point to his record 300+ career interceptions rather than his 450+ career passing touchdowns. They would point to his 5 (possibly 6 after this season) seasons of 20+ interceptions rather than his 8 seasons of 30+ touchdowns. They would say his risks, such as his across-body, across-field interception yesterday, show who he really is. The last image of Favre would be of a quarterback who can no longer lead a team to important victories. It wouldn't be of a youthful 39-year-old, but instead of an aging 39-year-old. It wouldn't be of bullets, but instead of consistently underthrown balls. Favre would go out looking tired, weary, gray, and defeated.

I'm hoping that won't happen next Sunday. I hope that Favre will come out Sunday firing bullets, throwing touchdown passes, and leading the Jets to a final victory. As a Patriots fan, it would excite me to see my team win its division. However, it would mean more than that to the league. It would help restore Favre, and give his past greatness and supporters the final say. It would show us that even at 39 years old, Favre is still an exciting, excited player. His risks down the field can be approached with an "Ohh that's just Brett being Brett attitude" in a tone similar to "Let boys be boys." Brett Favre is a great person and deserves to be remembered as the ageless, rather than the aged.
12/31/08-It seems that Brett will be remembered as the aged. Despite his injuries, the decision-making he showed in Sunday's loss to the Dolphins (3 atrocious interceptions, no other way to say it) was hard to watch. It's time to retire.

Pro Bowl Corrections

2008-12-16T14:27:00.000-08:00

Pro Bowl rosters came out today, and of course everyone has their gripes. Here are my 5 disagreements, in order of increasing severity.

5. Wes Welker
Wes Welker is a Pro Bowl caliber player having a Pro Bowl Caliber year and I'm glad he received his first Pro Bowl selection, but I don't think he's been better than Randy Moss. I know he has 102 receptions and 1071 yards through 14 games, but Randy Moss should have his spot. Welker's stats thrive because defenses have to dedicate so much attention to Moss. If defenses were to swarm Welker instead, Moss's numbers would be overwhelming. Moss's value is higher to the Patriots, and so he should be in the Pro Bowl.

Replace Welker: 102 receptions, 1071 yards, 1 TD
with Moss: 66 receptions, 908 yards, 10 TDs4. Le'Ron McClain
He's the AFC fullback, but he's only a pro bowl selection because of what he has done as a running back. That's not right. Replace him with his teammate Lorenzo Neal, the best fullback.

Replace McClain
with Lorenzo Neal

3. Ronnie Brown
Ronnie Brown has had a great season and his comeback is one of the biggest reasons for the Dolphin's turnaround this season, but he has not been the AFC's 3rd best running back. That honor should go to Steve Slaton or Ladainian Tomlinson. Both those players have more rushing yards, receptions, and receiving yards, and only 1 less touchdown than Ronnie Brown. Defenses also must dedicate themselves to stopping LT, and this opens up things for Rivers.

Replace Ronnie Brown: 195 att, 827 yrds, 4.2 avg, 10 TD, 24 rec, 218 yrds, 1 Fumble, 1 Lost
with Slaton: 230 att, 1124 yrds, 4.9 avg, 9 TD (1 rec), 40 rec, 305 yrds, 2 Fumble, 1 Lost
or LT: 257 att, 924 yrds, 3.6 avg, 9 TD (1 rec), 50 rec, 406 yrds, 1 Fumble, 0 Lost
2. Brett Favre
Brett Favre is a Hall of Fame quarterback, but this is not one of his better seasons. The Jets are 9-5, and I understand they were 4-12 last year, but I would be cautious to give Favre too much credit for this reversal. Keep in mind this team was 10-6 two years ago, 4-12 three years ago, and 10-6 4 years ago, 6-10 5 years ago, 9-7 6 years ago (when they won the division). Last year was more of an abberration in which Jonathan Vilma missed half the season and the Jets had no quarterback.

We can conclude that Favre was better than the combination of Pennington/Clemens last year, but a lot of quarterbacks would have been better than that. Fact is, this team relies on its running game and Favre has thrown 17 interceptions already this season.

Philip Rivers, on the other hand, has posted outstanding numbers to lift San Diego's offense despite the loss of Lorenzo Neal and San Diego's running game. He's the top-rated passer in the league and has made a star out of Vincent Jackson.

Replace Favre: 86.5 QBRating, 3052 yards, 67.6 completion percentage, 6.8 Y/A, 21 TD, 17 INT
with Rivers: 101.4 QBRating, 3513 yards, 64.6 completion percentage, 8.2 Y/A, 28 TD, 11 INT

1. Eli Manning
The Giants solid defense and running game are bringing Eli Manning along for the ride, and yet Eli receives all the credit for the Giants record. Look what happened against Dallas without Plaxico and Brandon Jacobs. To say the Giants' offense has been ineffective the last two games would be a compliment, and hopefully those who thought Eli was deserving of the MVP award this season have shut up. Eli Manning was sacked 8 times against Dallas, and many of those sacks could be blamed on him holding the ball.

Eli Manning is not what makes the Giants' offense run, and certainly not why the team wins. Instead, replace Manning with Tony Romo.

Romo did throw a late pick against Pittsburgh that lost the game, but he's really been having an outstanding season. Without Romo, the Cowboys got pummeled by the Rams. With Romo, the Cowboys are again a feared and dangerous team. Romo's ability to keep his cool and thus to keep his offense together, despite Ed Werder and T.O., shows that off the field Romo is a great leader.

PLEASE Replace: Eli: 86.4 QBRating, 2938 yards, 60.3 completion percentage, 6.8 Y/A, 20 TD, 10 INT
with Romo: 98.3 QBRating, 3013 yards (missed 3 games), 63.1 completion percentage, 8.2 Y/A, 24 TD, 11 INT
OTHER
Gostkowski received a well-deserved Pro Bowl nod. Something has to be said when somebody steps in for a Hall of Fame, beloved kicked like Adam Vinatieri and makes it a smooth transition.

It's good to see Nnamdi Asomugha be a Pro Bowl starter this year (last year only a reserve). He is well known to be the best cornerback in the league, and unfortunately has to play in Oakland. Last season, quarterbacks were so scared to throw it at him that he was only thrown at 31 times (!), allowing 10 completions. So far this year he has only allowed 8 completions. He's not going to have huge interception totals, because people are too scared to throw the ball at him! If he gets snubbed from the NFL All-Pro team again this year, it would be a great injustice. It's sad that great players such as Asomugha can be unheralded because they play for bad teams, while mediocre players (ahem Eli Manning) can become stars because they play for great ones.
It's unforunate that the NFC can't have a 5th WR spot to allow Calvin Johnson to become a pro bowler. It's amazing what he is doing despite drawing constant double coverage and playing for Detroit's offense, which averages the 4th fewest yards/game in the league.

The Strategy of Rotating Defenses Week by Week

2008-10-30T17:08:00.000-07:00

I have always held to the belief that it's not worth it to draft a defense early. I figure you can always snipe one of the upcoming units from the free agent pool or change your defense depending on matchups each week. I'll always wait until the 3rd to the last round at least before drafting a defense, and might not draft one at all (instead I'll look to make a multiplayer trade before the season starts then pick up a defense off the free agent pile).

In a couple leagues this season, I rotate my defense every week, rotating mediocre defenses from the free agent pool depending on the matchup. I always do this in salary cap as well.

How does this strategy of rotating defenses week by week compare to sticking with one dominant defense the whole season? To look at this, I'll compare the best defenses in terms of interceptions made and sacks made with the worst offenses in terms of interceptions thrown and sacks allowed last year.

Note that this clearly doesn't include some important statistics when looking at defensive units, but this should still be a fairly accurate comparison. As you can see, for top defenses, the rank according to merely interceptions and sacks correlates well with their actual fantasy rank for the season.

2007 Top 10 Defenses in terms of Interceptions and Sacks

Team	Int	Sacks	Sacks+2*Int	Actual Fantasy Rank
San Diego	30	42	102	1
New England	19	47	85	3
Seattle	20	45	85	4
Dallas	19	46	84	5
Tennessee	22	40	84	9
New York	15	53	83	8
Jacksonville	20	37	77	14
Green Bay	19	36	74	11
Chicago	16	41	73	6
Indianapolis	22	28	72	10

2007 10 Worst Offenses in terms of Interceptions and Sacks

Team	Int	Sack	Sacks+2*Int
St. Louis	28	48	104
Detroit	22	54	98
Kansas City	20	55	95
NY Jets	19	53	91
San Francisco	17	55	89
Chicago	21	43	85
Oakland	20	41	81
Philadelphia	15	49	79
Atlanta	15	47	77
Pittsburgh	14	47	75

The tables above show that generally, the number of points you should expect from your defense in any given week is more dependent on how good the offense you are facing is rather than how good your defense is.

So if you like to plug in defenses week by week depending on the matchup, let these tables support your tactics. Meanwhile, if you like to draft defenses early, it's time to rethink your strategy.

If you still think that drafting defenses early is a good idea and want to shrug off the conclusion of the above tables since they sample only one year, consider that the performances of defenses vary significantly from year to year and that you can often pick up a good defense during the year anyways. Make sure you wait until you draft a defense next year.

Who is Chris Johnson

2008-10-28T14:30:00.000-07:00

Maybe you weren't paying attention to the NFL combine, when Chris Johnson posted the fasted 40 time of 4.24. Maybe you didn't know Chris Johnson was a standout weight lifter and that as a junior at East Carolina he had a 265-pound power clean-lift and a 315-pound bench-press despite being 5'11" and less than 200 pounds. Maybe you didn't realize Chris Johnson anchored the fastest collegiate 4x100 relay team in the country.

Maybe you weren't paying attention to the preseason hype. Maybe you didn't think the Titans were going to be that good this year, and didn't notice the speedy rookie gaining an average of 109 yards from scrimmage through the first 3 weeks of the season. Maybe you still don't know who Chris Johnson is, and you just really haven't been paying enough attention this year.

Chris Johnson is probably the biggest offensive reason for the Titans being 7-0, the only undefeated team in the league. So far, Johnson has accumulated 626 yards rushing on 5.1 y/a, has 18 receptions for 92 yards, and 5 touchdowns. We have perhaps the next fantasy superstar in our midst, someone who could've been the number one player in the game this season if not for Lendale White, who has robbed Johnson of 8 rushing touchdowns of 2 yards or less, and 1 of 6 yards.

Regardless, Johnson should prove to be more and more valuable in the second half, as the Titans should give Johnson the ball more and White the ball less as the season progresses, much like Adrian Peterson and Chester Taylor from last year in Minnesota. The Titans should also be able to run the ball freely with their schedule. The second half goes as follows: Green Bay, @ Chicago, @ Jacksonville, NY Jets, Detroit, Cleveland, @ Houston, Pittsburgh, @ Indianapolis. Those teams rank 25, 6, 17, 4, 31, 24, 21, 3, and 26 against the run.

Chris Johnson will be a top 10 running back this season and could be a top 5 running back if the Titans give him some of White's goal line scores.

Fantasy Football: Quarterbacks in the Second Half

2008-10-28T12:43:00.000-07:00

Starting with the week 1 injury to Tom Brady, the quarterback position so far this year has been by far the most unpredictable. For the most part, there have been few surprising performances at the other positions. Here I will give my opinion on how the second half will fare for some quarterbacks that have been surprisingly good or surprisingly bad thus far.

Quarterbacks
BUY:Kurt Warner-Warner is 2nd in yards and has thrown for 14 touchdowns versus just 6 interceptions, good for the 4th most valuable quarterback in all of fantasy so far. He thinks he's playing as well as he ever has, and that may be the truth. He has a 70.2 completion percentage and has a yards/attempt of 8.0. Why do I think he will continue to put up monster numbers?
1) The Cardinals cannot run the ball with Edge, so will continue to throw 30, 40 times a game (or 57, the number of passes Warner threw against the Jets) for the rest of the year.
2) Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin are as good as they get, and oh yeah Steve Breaston is also on pace for 1000 yards.
3) This performance is not completely out of the blue at all: Warner was very good last year too. Through 14 games, he threw for 27 Tds, 17 Ints, and 3417 yards (7.6 Y/A).

Tony Romo-Apparently there is a poll in some New York newspaper about who is the better quarterback between Tony Romo and Eli Manning. That has to be a joke. Romo was having another fantastic year (will we ever be able to say that about Eli?) before he got hurt, and when he comes back he'll also have superathletic Roy Williams to throw to.
That's going to be sick. The rib injury to Witten could hurt, but Romo will have plenty of weapons regardless. He or Brees will be the best fantasy quarterback in the game when he comes back.

Aaron Rodgers-This is the reason why the Packers let go of Brett Favre. Considering his first start ever in the NFL came in week 1 of this season, it's really amazing how great Rodgers has been. He currently has the 3rd most fantasy points of any quarterback this year, and he'll only get better and better as he gains experience. Also, Greg Jennings is for real.

Jay Cutler-An injury has hampered his play a bit recently, but Cutler is definitely going to be one of the best in the second half of the season. With Denver's defense giving up the 4th most points in the league and 3rd most yards, the Broncos figure to be in a lot of shootouts in the second half of the year, and Cutler is well equipped to win a lot of them. Cutler will be airing it out to Brandon Marshall and Eddie Royal and should throw for at least 30 touchdowns by the end of the season.

SELL:
Derek Anderson-I thought his play was a little overrated at points last year, as he did throw 19 interceptions and had only a 56.5 completion percentage. His Y/A was 7.2 and rating was 82.5. In the last few games of last season, he was horrible. Many people are targeting Anderson as a buy low candidate right now, citing the return of Donte Stallworth, the return of Braylon Edward's hands, and Browns' recent winning. If I were an Anderson owner, I'd be looking to trade away Anderson as his value is up after a good last few games. Anderson takes a lot of risks, and a lot of them paid off last season. However, I don't think he's going to be putting up high 20 touchdown seasons anymore unless the Browns are willing to have him throw 20 interceptions in the process.

Peyton Manning-In no way am I saying Peyton is not still a top 10 quarterback this year, but he's not going to be putting up the numbers we are accustomed to for the rest of this season. There is clearly something wrong with his knee, even if we will never know exactly what is going on with it (the secrecy of NFL injuries is getting ridiculous), and Marvin Harrison sadly is in the decline of his career. He should be a good-but-not-great quarterback, so trade him away to some Peyton lover who thinks Peyton is going to post a 100 qb rating the rest of the way.
Philip Rivers-Rivers is the #1 quarterback in the game thus far, as he has established rapport with Vincent Jackson and Chris Chambers to go along with LT, Gates, and Darren Sproles. Rivers will continue to be an excellent option the rest of the way, but his pace will have to slow down as LT will get his touchdowns soon. LT only has two rushing touchdowns from inside the 10 yard line (both 2 yarders), while Rivers has 5 passing touchdowns from inside the 10 yard line (1, 1, 4, 6, and 9 yards, with the 9-yarder being on first down). That ratio will even out as eventually teams will protect more against the pass inside the red zone, leaving LT with more rushing scores and Rivers with less passing ones.
Rivers will continue to be a solid option and a good #1 quarterback the rest of the way, but not a top-5 quarterback in the second half.

QB rankings for the second half:
Tier 1
1) Brees-and now Colston is back
2) Romo
3) Cutler
4) Warner
5) Rodgers
Tier 2
6) Roethlisberger-doing a great job without Parker and struggling line
7) Rivers
8) McNabb-Can Westbrook stay healthy?
9) Peyton Manning
10) Favre
11) Schaub
12) Delhomme
13) Bulger-Where have you gone Torry Holt?
Tier 3
14) Derek Anderson
15) Garrard
16) Pennington
17) Campbell
18) Eli Manning
19) Cassel-building rapport with Moss
20) Matt Ryan
21) Orton

Is Eli Proving me Wrong?

2008-10-28T11:54:00.000-07:00

Eli’s numbers this year have been good so far, as he’s thrown for an average of 227 yards per game with 9 touchdowns and 4 interceptions through 7 games, which puts him on pace to throw for 3630 yards and about 20.5 touchdowns with only 9 interceptions. He has a completion percentage over 60% (61.4), a Y/A of 7.1, and a QB rating of 88.9. Those numbers are meteoric rises over his previous years (see article below), and I don’t expect this to continue. Eli is always pretty good in the beginning of the season. Here are his statistics through the first 7 games of the season since 2005, his first full season as a starter.

Year	Comp Pct	Y/A	yards/game	TD	INT
2005	51.1	6.9	222	13	5
2006	61.4	7.2	239	14	8
2007	60.9	6.7	218	13	9
2008	61.4	7.1	227	9	4

As you can see, the good statistics that Eli has put up this year through the first 7 games are actually no surprise. In no way does his play this season make him deserving of being considered a fantasy superstar (only 13th most points for a quarterback so far this season anyways) and much less an NFL superstar.

Eli Manning Supporter: But these stats are building upon an amazing postseason run last season! You’re just bitter that he beat your favorite team in the Super Bowl, Jeff! Just say it Jeff, Eli is better than Peyton now! Way better than Romo, way better than Roethlisberger, he’s one of the best!
Me: (after vomiting a few times) Please read my article Eli Manning--A Long Way to Go, where I explain how Eli’s play last year in the postseason was more due to the defenses he faced and sheer luck that he didn’t throw a pick in that Super Bowl drive.

Also, after watching the Giants-Steelers game last week, it became apparent to me that I have rarely seen an experienced quarterback settle for a higher percentage of checkdown passes. That's why he started the game 9/10, not because he was actually throwing accurately. Correction, he was throwing slow passes very accurately to people maybe 5 yards away from him who were wide open. The first time he threw to anybody who wasn’t wide open, he jumped backwards and then almost threw an interception with the Giants at Pittsburgh’s 1 yard line (fade away!). Sure, Eli’s Y/A is over 7 for the season, but that is due to the yards after catch of the Giant’s very talented offensive weapons (Plax, Toomer, Steve Smith, Domenik Hixon, Sinorice Moss, Brandon Jacobs, Derrick Ward, Ahmad Bradshaw).

Make no mistake; the Giants are not Eli’s team, but a team with Eli on it.

For Eli’s fantasy owners, there are two scenarios I can see for the rest of the year.
1) The Giants continue to give Eli easy plays and he finishes the year with respectable numbers, good enough to make him a respectable QB2.
2) Just like every other year so far, Eli will feel the pressure as the games begin to matter, and as he throws more passes down the field, the interceptions come and the frustration begins.

Conclusion: Trade him to someone who buys into the positive media buzz surrounding Eli.

Proper Responses to Tom Brady's Injury

2008-09-09T10:41:00.000-07:00

On Sunday, the sporting world watched in shock as possibly the greatest quarterback in the history of the NFL went down with a torn ACL. This is a quarterback who excels in any situation (cold, snow, wind, rain, pressure situations, whatever) and a quarterback on a team that was the heavy favorite to win its 4th Super Bowl this decade.

Like him or not, you can't deny that the NFL thrived as much as it did last year because of Tom Brady last year, and was hoping to ride him and the New England Patriots for years to come. The ratings for the Patriots games at the end of last year, including the Super Bowl, were record-producing. Now, it faces a Brady-less season and possibly a Patriots-less postseason.

How should we respond to the injury of Tom Brady and the prospect of a losing Patriots squad? What are the appropriate measures we need to take? These are my thoughts:

10. Have a giant countdown in the scoreboard of every stadium to week 1 of next season.

9. Have defenses playing the Patriots only be able to put 10 players on the field so the Patriots still have a high-flying offense.

8. Have the Pats start at the 50 whenever they get the ball.

7. Let the Patriots get 10 points per touchdown.

6. Change the name of the Super Bowl to the "Tom Brady Game"

5. Have Roger Goodell step down as NFL commissioner and let Brady be commissioner for just one season.

4. Have Gisele Bundchen posters hung around Gilette Stadium so people remember Tom Brady (ratings would increase due to the posters as well).
3. The winner of this year's Super Bowl should have an asterisk attached to their name in the record books (reading: "did not beat Tom Brady and Randy Moss").

2. Have the Colts, Cowboys, Chargers, Steelers, Jaguars, Saints, Packers, and Panthers change their nicknames to the Patriots. Change all their QB's names to Tom Brady.

1. Have Matt Cassel get plastic surgery so his face looks exactly like Tom Brady's face, and have him change his name to Tom Brady.

P.S. I am a Pats fan and am devastated right now.

Eli Manning--A Long Way to Go

2008-09-05T09:24:00.000-07:00

Eli Manning is a much improved quarterback. I can't deny it, as overrated as I think Eli is. However, that doesn't mean he's good, it just means that he isn't as horrible as he used to be. He's far from a top-15 quarterback in the league.

I know Manning supporters will say numbers don't tell the whole story, but let's start off by looking at them anyways. If you are feeling a little queasy, feel free to skip past the following table, which shows his performance the past three years.

Year	QB Rating	Comp Pct	Y/A	TD	INT	Fb	Lost
2005	75.9	52.8	6.8	24	17	9	2
2006	77	57.7	6.2	24	18	9	2
2007	73.9	56.1	6.3	23	20	13	7
rank in 2007	25	T-29	T-26	11	T-1	T-2	T-2

What's most amazing about those numbers is that the Giants have always surrounded Eli with talent. This isn't Tom Brady in 2006, where his best receiver the whole season (by a long shot) was Reche Caldwell (and Brady still posted solid numbers). Eli had Tiki and Jacobs in 2005 and 2006, and replaced Tiki with Derrick Ward and Bradshaw in 2007. Plax, Shockey, and Toomer have also been around for all three years. Many of Eli's good plays were a result of just somehow getting it to Plax, whether throwing a jump ball or seeing Plax break tackles.

Plax Jump Ball TD

Eli Manning supporter: Yeah, but look at the postseason last year. Eli's turned it around! 95.7 QB rating, 6 TDs, 1 INT, 7.2 Y/A, a decent 60.5% completion percentage. The drive against the Pats to win the game! How can you deny that Eli Manning has finally come around and deserves respect now?

It's true, Eli had a great postseason and posted good numbers en route to a Super Bowl title over the only team to ever have gone 16-0. However, the defenses that he succeeded against in the first couple rounds basically packed the line and dared Eli to throw the ball into single coverage. In short, Eli only did well because teams gave him easy opportunities to throw the ball. Teams expected to be playing a horrible quarterback, and Eli played above average.

Meanwhile, in the Super Bowl, the Giants defense had a much larger role than the offense in winning that game. The winning drive easily could've ended in interceptions a couple times, especially the ball Asante Samuel failed to come down with on the sideline. Also, while Eli did a good job evading tacklers on Tyree's catch, are we really going to give him credit for lofting the ball to the middle of the field into coverage?

Now that teams might be more wary of Manning's arm (they still might not be), let's see how Manning performs in 2008. If the first game was any indication, the "new" Eli isn't any different than the "old" Eli. Yeah, the Giants beat the Redskins 16-7, and Eli rushed for a TD, but let's take a closer look at his performance. Eli threw 5 passes that easily could've been interceptions (including a sure pick six).

Eli has a long way to go before establishing himself as a good quarterback in the NFL.

Overperforming/Underperforming Baseball Teams According to Pythagorean Expectation

2008-09-03T11:11:00.001-07:00

In this blog, I have decided to look at which baseball teams records that reflect their overall performance, and which teams have records that don't.

Using the Pythagorean Expectation formula used by Bill James (win pct=RS^2/(RS^2+RA^2)), I determined the expected win percentage of all MLB teams. However, I replaced the coefficient of 2 with 1.81, which is supposedly more accurate. Understand that while the Pythagorean Expectation is quite accurate, it doesn't take into account good managing and clutch performances. Still, it is a useful and telling statistic for the most part. It could help to answer questions such as if the Rays are the real deal or not.
Here is the data:

AL East	RS	RA	PCT	P1.81	Diff
Tampa Bay	639	546	0.618	0.571	0.047
Boston	729	580	0.587	0.602	-0.02
NYY	671	630	0.536	0.528	0.008
Toronto	603	531	0.518	0.557	-0.04
Baltimore	704	739	0.457	0.478	-0.02
AL Central	RS	RA	PCT	P1.81	Diff
ChiSox	696	611	0.558	0.559	-0
Minnesota	703	623	0.558	0.554	0.004
Cleveland	669	629	0.489	0.528	-0.04
Detroit	695	703	0.478	0.495	-0.02
KC	562	686	0.423	0.411	0.012
AL West	RS	RA	PCT	P1.81	Diff
LA Angels	633	573	0.613	0.545	0.068
Texas	768	836	0.486	0.462	0.024
Oakland	533	574	0.457	0.467	-0.01
Seattle	581	690	0.391	0.423	-0.03
NL East	RS	RA	PCT	P1.81	Diff
NY Mets	684	604	0.561	0.556	0.005
Philly	669	576	0.547	0.567	-0.02
Florida	647	681	0.504	0.477	0.027
ATL	639	669	0.432	0.479	-0.05
Washington	535	686	0.381	0.389	-0.01
NL Central	RS	RA	PCT	P1.81	Diff
ChiCubs	750	566	0.612	0.625	-0.01
Milwaukee	663	577	0.58	0.563	0.017
St. Louis	673	621	0.54	0.536	0.004
Houston	624	653	0.525	0.479	0.046
Cincinnati	588	686	0.442	0.431	0.011
Pittsburgh	618	754	0.423	0.411	0.012
NL West	RS	RA	PCT	P1.81	Diff
Arizona	634	609	0.507	0.518	-0.01
LAD	578	568	0.496	0.508	-0.01
Colorado	656	708	0.471	0.466	0.005
SanFran	530	649	0.428	0.409	0.019
San Diego	533	649	0.384	0.412	-0.03

As you can see, most of the actual winning percentages are extremely close to the Pythagorean Expectation. However, a few things stick out to me.
1. LA Angels Overperforming--The team that differs the most from its actual winning percentage are the Angels. According to the theory, they are actually only the 5th best baseball team in the AL despite having the 2nd best record. The cause for this is probably a combination of a few things: great managing by Mike Scioscia, winning a lot of close games (K-Rod has had 59 save opportunities), timely hitting, and getting lucky. The Angels are a good team with playoff experience, but don't be surprised if they fall quickly in the postseason.

2. Rays the Real Deal, Kind of--Are the Devil Rays truly a playoff caliber team this year? Yes. Are they the best team in the AL (currently they own the best record)? No. Behind the Angels, they are the 2nd most overperforming squard in the MLB, and haven't been playing as well as the Red Sox (who are slightly underperforming). Unless David Price provides a major spark for the Rays this month, I can't see them getting past the much more experienced, underperforming Red Sox team.
3. Cubbies are Heavy Favorites in the NL--The Cubs are even slightly underperforming, while the Brewers are overperforming. Their Pythagorean (with 1.81 exponent) Win % is >0.06 pts ahead of the Brewers. This should be the year, but of course Bill James doesn't take curses into account.
Conclusion--Admittedly, this analysis didn't show anything really eye-opening, but I found it interesting nonetheless. The postseason is short, teams get hot, players get injured, and there is a lot of natural deviation, so it's impossible to have a 100% positive pick on which team will win the pennant or a series. Most of the time, the best team in the MLB won't win the World Series.

Natural deviation has never been as apparent as last year, when the Diamondbacks scored less runs than they allowed but had the best record in the NL and swept the cubs in the divisional round.

Just adding this in as an annoyed Yankees fan: The firing of Joe Torre was a ridiculously ignorant decision. Fact is, you can't completely evaluate how good a team or a manager is by the results in a short postseason. A manager could easily lose despite making smart, educated moves, and that is what happened to Joe Torre. There is too much deviation. Bringing a team to the playoffs that many years in a row is an amazing accomplishment. If you're going to fire somebody based on postseason performance, evaluate their decisions and their preparation, but not their results.

A Couple Thoughts on the Cy Young

2008-08-31T16:09:00.000-07:00

1. Should there be an easier way for someone like C.C. Sabathia to win the Cy Young?

C.C. Sabathia just pitched another complete game, a 1-hitter in fact. There's no doubt that if he had his combined statistics in only the NL or only the AL, he would be a favorite for the Cy Young and quite possibly the favorite. He's been the best when it counts the most, lifting the Milwaukee Brewers from fighting for a playoff spot when he was acquired to being 5.5 games ahead of Philadelphia and 6.5 ahead of St. Louis. He's going to pitch about a thousand innings, including 9 complete games so far.

Now I'm not saying that he'd be a lock in the AL or the NL, as Lincecum and Cliff Lee have been incredible as well, but to think that switching leagues hurts his chances isn't quite fair. The purpose of the Cy Young is the BEST pitcher (unlike the MVP so there's no debate over the the word "valuable"). Perhaps a player who switches leagues should have his statistics from the other league counted in some way. Otherwise, it's certainly possible that the BEST pitcher in the MLB might not win the Cy Young some years, and that should never happen.

Sabathia will still get a lot of votes for the NL Cy Young award and with an incredible September might just win it anyways. Still, we shouldn't wait for something bad to occur in order to fix a problem. Whether or not C.C. wins his 2nd consecutive Cy Young or not this year, the issue deserves further discussion.

2. K-Rod, chill out. Voters, don't be ridiculous.
It would be ridiculous if Francisco Rodriguez wins the Cy Young because he breaks the save record. Absolutely ridiculous. I'm sorry, but his season is not even comparable to Eric Gagne's Cy Young season. How many saves did Gagne blow? Zero! He had an ERA of 1.20 and a WHIP of 0.692. He also pitched 82 1/3 innings, throwing 137 Ks.

K-Rod this year has an ERA of 2.47 with a WHIP of 1.22. Now, to emphasize those differences there would be nitpicking a little, but the fact that K-Rod has blown 5 saves is extremely significant. K-Rod has pitched 58 1/3 innings, throwing 67 Ks. Clearly, K-Rod's season cannot even compare with Gagne's so far. The only advantage K-Rod will have is more saves. K-Rod will have more than Gagne's 55 that season (as of today K-Rod has 53).

I find it comical that there is hype over the saves record. From the standpoint of the closer, breaking the record is more a matter of chance that his team offers him so many opportunities. Personally, I think Mariano is more deserving of the award with his 32 saves to 1 blown save, 1.46 ERA, 0.70 WHIP, 62 2/3 innings, and 70 Ks. That's right, I don't even think K-Rod is the best reliever in the AL this year.

Imagine if K-Rod doesn't break the saves record and gets 56 saves. How many less votes would he receive than if he had 57, and how many less than if he had 58? Yeah, it doesn't make much sense, does it? So what if somebody breaks a record?

I read the other day that it would mean a lot to K-Rod if he broke the saves record and I cracked up. I'd rather have 55 saves and zero blown saves than 65 and 5 blown saves.

The only way somebody can win a Cy Young award after blowing 5 saves should be if they were big in the big moments, but K-Rod hasn't had to deal with pressure (the Angels are 17 games ahead in their division). Compare that to each of Mariano's saves right now.

So baseball voters, if you vote for K-Rod as your Cy Young pick, you need to not be a baseball voter anymore. Seriously, I think they should take each one of those voters and kick them out of the voting for any kind of award ever again. There is absolutely no way K-Rod should get a single first-place vote for the AL Cy Young. It's a 2-way battle between Cliff Lee and Roy Halladay right now, with Lee winning.

Rudi Johnson Released

2008-08-31T11:20:00.000-07:00

So the big news in fantasy yesterday was that Rudi Johnson was released by the Cincinnati Bengals. This is the Rudi Johnson that rushed for 12 TDs in each of the 2004, 2005, and 2006 seasons, so the Johnson owners expecting a significant late round steal clearly are upset. However, this move should not have come as a big surprise, given Rudi's struggles this preseason with his health and numerous warnings from coach Lewis. Hopefully, you didn't put too many eggs in the basket of the faded star.

What does this mean, fantasy wise? Well, many have taken this to mean Chris Perry is the free agent pick up of the year, as I've read that over the last 24 hours Perry's ownership has jumped from around 4% to around 35%. In most leagues, Perry should indeed be picked up, but the hype has clearly been overdone. In many public yahoo leagues, players like DeAngelo Williams and Chris Johnson are available, two players with far more potential than that of Chris Perry.
Now if players such as Chris Johnson, Mendenhall, DeAngelo Williams, Fargas, or Felix Jones are available, all those players deserve a pickup ahead of Perry. Well ahead, in fact. Yeah, Chris Perry was a first round pick (4 years ago though), but he's only rushed for 337 yards in his career. Everybody knows who he is since he played for Michigan, but playing at a good program won't help you break tackles. Fact is, Perry has never had a game with double digit carries, didn't play last year, and had 10 total carries the year before that. You think the Bengals are going to throw him out there for 20+ carries a game? If they do, there's no way he'll last even close to the whole season (so they won't).

While Perry could prove me wrong, there is definitely some overexcitement over a player who will struggle to match half of Rudi's old numbers. The main fantasy impact of Rudi Johnson's release is a positive bump for Cincinnati's passing attack. Carson Palmer owners should be in store for more of a monster season than before, along with Housh owners. Ocho Psycho owners, who knows?

Yahoo Salary Cap Football Best Values

2008-08-29T18:45:00.001-07:00

Yahoo Salary Cap Football usually offers many bargains, and I'm highlighting a few of them for week 1.

Quarterbacks
Drew Brees ($19.25) vs Tampa Bay--I think that his production this year could be just as good as that of Manning and Romo, yet Brees is 3-4 dollars cheaper due to his below-expectations season last year. Coming into his third year with the Saints, his weapons include Colston, Bush (both entering their magical third years, and you know Bush is out to prove himself), new addition Jeremy Shockey, David Patten, Meachem, and Devery Henderson.

Also, if Brees thrives, you can ride him all the way until his bye week in week 9.

Philip Rivers ($13.72) vs Carolina--Carolina's defense has gone to shit. Rivers is ridiculously cheap at $13.72. The Chargers should score a lot on Sunday, and Rivers should get his share unless LT rushes for 3-4 TDs (which is possible).

Marc Bulger ($10.95) @ Philadelphia--Like Carolina, Philadelphia is another case of a defense that used to be good but isn't anymore. Bulger is healthy with receivers Holt and Drew Bennett and a healthy (and now happy) Steven Jackson. A healthy Marc Bulger for $10.95??! Even if he didn't finally have a good preseason game in the 3rd preseason game, I would take him at that price.

J.T. O'Sullivan? ($1.62) vs Arizona--Honestly, I don't know anything about this guy except I guess he has a strong arm. But hey, at a dirt cheap price, a starting QB playing Arizona may be worth a shot. He does have Frank Gore, Bryant Johnson, Issac Bruce, and Mike Martz, who knows a thing or two about succeeding with obscure quarterbacks.

Running Backs
AP ($14.20) @ GB--$14.20? This is the Minnesota Vikings' Adrian Peterson, right? At this price, he better be on every team there is.

Frank Gore ($12.54) vs Arizona--The wild card is nobody knows how good J.T. will be, but this is Frank Gore and Arizona's D sucks.

Earnest Graham ($10.25) @NO--7 TDs in his last 7 games last year, and New Orleans D sucks. Game is in a dome too.

Darren McFadden ($4.88) vs Denver--This is pretty fucking cheap for someone that talented.

Michael Turner ($3.91) vs Det--hahaha so cheap, and at the home dome against Matt Millen's team.

Wide Receivers
Jerricho Cotchery ($8.24) @Mia--He now has Favre of course and the game is at Miami, the best team in the league.

Calvin Johnson ($7.34) @Atl--It's Matt Ryan's first game and Atlanta's D is horrible. Detroit figures to have the ball a lot in this game.

Ted Ginn Jr. ($4.44) vs NYJ--He's fast, agile, and Pennington's got to throw to someone. The other options aren't so great.

Tight Ends
Jason Witten ($9.53) @ Cle--Witten is either the #1 or #2 TE in my mind. Gates should not be more than $1.50 over him and 3 other TEs should not be more expensive, especially against Cleveland.

Fantasy Football Draft Cheat Sheet

2008-08-29T18:33:00.000-07:00

Below is the cheat sheet that I used on draft day. On this sheet are all the players that I'd really have an interest in drafting. Some players who I had no interest in are omitted, including Eli Manning (Mr. Inconsistent) and fragile Fred (Taylor).

This cheat sheet is designed for standard Yahoo Leagues (details), which is non-ppr. There is no round for kickers and defenses because I always take them late, and I may not take a kicker at all if there is time to make trades before Week 1 rolls around.

Also note that there isn't an overall ranking for all positions, as such a list is often useless due to the variation of positional availability between drafts. However, looking at the roughly projected round will give an overall idea of how I think players of different positions stack up (this is the main purpose of the round columns).

Quarterbacks	Round
Brady	1
Manning	2.3
Romo	2.3
Brees	3
Roethlisberger	4.5
Palmer	5
Derek Anderson	5.6
Hasselbeck	7
McNabb	8
Cutler	8
Bulger	10
Favre	10
Garrard	10
Rodgers	10
Schaub	10.11
Rivers	11
Delhomme	12
Warner	13
Kitna	13.14
Vince Young	16
Campbell	16

Running Backs	Round
LT	1
AP	1
Addai	1
Steven Jackson	1
Westbrook	1
Gore	1
Barber	1.2
Lynch	1.2
Portis	1.2
LJ	2
Grant	2.3
Jamal Lewis	2.3
Jones-Drew	2.3
McGahee	3
Maroney	3.4
B. Jacobs	3.4
Parker	4.5
Turner	4.5
Reggie Bush	6
Thomas Jones	6
Earnest Graham	6
Lendale White	6.7
Selvin Young	6.7
Edge	6.7
Ronnie Brown	7
Jonathan Stewart	7
McFadden	8
DeAngelo Williams	11
Matt Forte	11
Kevin Smith	11
Chris Johnson	12
Ahman Green	12
Julius Jones	13
Mendenhall	13
Felix Jones	13
Ricky Williams	13

Wide Receivers	Round
Moss	2
TO	2
Wayne	2.3
Braylon	2.3
Andre	2.3
Fitz	2.3
Colston	3.4
Housh	3.4
Holt	3.4
Steve Smith	3.4
Chad Johnson	4
Boldin	4
Plax	4.5
Roy Williams	5
Welker	5
Holmes	5
Marshall	5.6
White	6.7
Jennings	6.7
Calvin Johnson	6.7
Bowe	6.7
Evans	6.7
Cotchery	6.7
Coles	8
Marvin Harrison	8
Ward	8
S. Moss	8
Driver	10
Galloway	10
Chambers	10
Burleson	10
Berrian	11
Crayton	11
Stallworth	11
Reggie Williams	11.12
Reggie Brown	11.12
Ginn Jr.	11.12
Kevin Curtis	12.13
Bryant Johnson	13
Anthony Gonzalez	15
Isaac Bruce	15
DJ Hackett	16
Drew Bennett	16

Tight End	Round
Witten	3.4
Gates	4
Winslow	5.6
Gonzo	6.7
Cooley	6.7
Clark	6.7
Heap	9
Vernon Davis	9
Shockey	10
Crumpler	12
Heath Miller	13
Scheffler	13
Owen Daniels	15
Donald Lee	15
LJ Smith	16
Greg Olsen	16
Ben Watson	16
McMichael	16
Kevin Boss	16
Zach Miller	16
Leonard Pope	16

Kickers	D/ST
Folk	SD
Graham	CHI
Gostkowski	NE
Kaeding	MIN
Bironas	Seattle
Gould	Dallas
Crosby	GB
Dawson	NYG
Vinatieri	PITT
Josh Brown	INDY
Rackers	TB
Scobee	JAX
	TEN
	BALT
	PHI
	BUFF