NFL Future Book Odds for Next Season

Although the Super Bowl has yet to be played, many fans such as myself are looking forward to next year already. While looking at the NFL Future Book Odds at VegasInsider, I noticed a few places I would like to place bets.

First of all, it's important to realize that if you sum the probabilities suggested by the posted online odds at a site such as VegasInsider, they add up to more than 1. For next season's AFC Championship winner, the probabilities add up to 1.43. For next season's NFC Championship winner, the probabilities add up 1.46. For the Super Bowl XLIV winner, the probabilities add up to 1.62. This suggests that the probabilities (and therefore the odds) are too good, and conducive to betting.

TOP BET TO MAKE (Most Underrated Team): Minnesota Vikings (11/1 to win NFC Championship)
This team has great talent on defense, a great offensive line, Bernard Berrian, Chester Taylor, and of course Adrian Peterson. Coming off a season in which they went 10-6 and won the NFC North, it seems strange that they are considered less likely to be NFC Champions than the Packers and the Saints.

Of course the main problem, and a substantial problem, is the quarterback position. Any Tarvaris Jackson team should have less than 11/1 odds of winning a conference championship, no matter how good his team's defense and running game may be. However, Minnesota realizes this problem as well, and should be looking for a quarterback in the coming months.

The Vikings are expected to save $13 million or so by cutting ties with free agent center Matt Birk, free agent safety Darren Sharper, and free agent tight end Jim Kleinsasser. This should open up space for a needed new starting quarterback. With news today that Donovan McNabb may want out of Philadelphia (from ESPN) and that Tom Brady looks to be ready for the season opener, thoughts of a McNabb-led or Matt Cassel-led Minnesota Vikings team substantially change the odds in my mind. If those two prime options don't work out, perhaps the Vikings could take a chance with Matt Hasselbeck, Derek Anderson, Marc Bulger, or Sage Rosenfels.

It makes sense to bet on the Vikings in hopes that they find someone to fill the quarterback void. Anybody would be a substantial upgrade over the current situation.

TOP BET TO AVOID (Most Overrated Team): Miami Dolphins (12/1 to win AFC Championship, 25/1 to win Super Bowl XLIV)
For all the media attention that they received for their turnaround from last season, the Dolphins really were not as good as their record indicated. Their last 7 wins were by 2 against Seattle, 2 against Oakland, 4 against St. Louis, 13 against Buffalo, 5 against San Francisco, 7 against Kansas City and 7 against the Jets. Note that all those teams had losing records with the exception of the Jets, who were playing horribly at the end of the season. With the exception of the game against the Bills, the Dolphins could have easily lost the other 6 games. Meanwhile, there was a 20 point loss to the Patriots in the second half of the season.

Aside from the running back position, this team has very little firepower, including Chad Pennington's arm. While their ability to not turn the ball over this season was impressive, the fact that little about this team poses challenges for the opposition makes it almost impossible for them to compete against the giants of the AFC next year. 11-5 was a fluke.