Quarterbacks Draft Preview

This year's quarterback crop is full of uncertainties, from players coming back from injury (Brady, Palmer, Hasselbeck), players moving to different teams (Cassel, Cutler, Orton, Favre), and players that are always question marks (Schaub, Eli Manning). For that reason, there should be more major surprises as well as more major disappointments this fantasy football season.

I believe the top 5 quarterbacks are close, and there are a bunch of other QBs who could easily become top 5 QBs this year. For that reason, the draft strategy for quarterbacks is pretty clear: WAIT after Brady, Brees, and Manning go.

Here are my QB rankings for the upcoming fantasy season:

TIER 1

1) Tom Brady
Pros: The knee looked great in the first preseason game, and no QB has a higher ceiling than Brady (not even up for debate). In his first season throwing to Moss and Welker he threw 50 TDs compared to 8 picks and 4806 yards.

Cons: The injury risk is definitely a concern, and there may be some rustiness in the first month or so of the season. Some worry that he'll be distracted by Gisele and married life (Gisele...wow). Be careful not to overvalue him and draft him in the first two rounds, as he is unlikely to throw 40+ touchdowns again.

Bottom Line: Brady is one of the all-time greatest quarterbacks, and one of the most competitive quarterbacks of all-time. He won't be scared of contact and he'll be doing everything he can to prove the Giant's Super Bowl victory was a fluke. It’s time to show the world that Brady and the Patriots are back and ready to continue their run as the greatest team of the decade. I would be willing to take a risk on him early in the third round.

2) Drew Brees
Pros: Brees airs it out every game no matter who is injured on the Saints. If Reggie Bush and Marques Colston can stay healthy for the whole season, Brees should easily throw 30+ TDs this season.

Cons: The Saints D allowed the 6th most points in the NFL last year. If they become a better defensive team this year, Brees could be involved in less shootouts.

Bottom Line: Brees has little downside and is a safe bet to be a top 5 quarterback this coming year. He could easily be taken ahead of Brady even though he has less upside than him.

3) Peyton Manning
Pros: Manning is consistently great every season, excluding one season which was beyond great. How consistent is he? Here are his passing TD totals over his career: 26, 26, 33, 26, 27, 29, 49, 28, 31, 31, and 27. Oh, and he’s never missed a game in his 11 seasons. Peyton has proven that he doesn’t need a healthy and/or effective Marvin Harrison the past two years. Last year, he proved that he can overcome injury and be effective despite an unhealthy Joseph Addai and a struggling offensive line. Addai should be healthier this year, and if he struggles Donald Brown looks like a capable back.

Cons: When a new coach arrives, there is a level of uncertainty as to how his new team will respond. This is especially true when replacing a coach of Tony Dungy’s caliber. Manning also has less upside than Brady or Brees.

Bottom Line: Manning is a near lock for 4000 yards and 25+ TDs, and has less downside than Brady or Brees. Reaching for Manning late in the third round could pay off, as the security Manning offers deserves a premium.

4) Phillip Rivers
Pros: 105.5 QB rating, 34 TDs, 11 INTs, 4009 yards, 65.3 comp %, 8.4 Y/A. Rivers was broke out last year as the Chargers became a passing team due to a struggling and unhealthy LT. Rivers has his full arsenal of weapons again this year plus a healthier Gates and healthier LT.

Cons: If LT is effective and healthy this year, Rivers’ attempts could be cut way down, along with his passing TDs. He also doesn’t have the track record of a Manning, Brees, or Brady.

Bottom Line: Rivers could end up having the same value as the top 3 QBs, but should not be drafted with the top 3 QBs.

5) Aaron Rodgers
Pros: In Rodgers’ first season as a starter, he threw 28 TDs versus 13 INTs, rushed for 207 yards and 4 scores, and threw over 4000 yards. Rodgers still has room to grow, and offers tantalizing upside throwing to Greg Jennings and Donald Driver.

Cons: While a Rodgers has more upside because he is younger and still learning, he also has more downside because he is less proven.

Bottom Line: Rodgers should be good for 25+ TDs this year, provided his offense remains healthy. He should be drafted near Rivers.

TIER 2

6) Kurt Warner
Pros: The Cardinals are a pass heavy team, finishing 2nd in the league in passing and last in the league in rushing. Boldin, Fitzgerald, and Breaston are back and motivated to return to the Super Bowl.

Cons: If you draft Warner, handcuffing Leinart is a must. Warner is 38 years old and has an injury history, including a replaced hip. He also will turn the ball over, both with interceptions and fumbles. Warner has fumbled 12 and 11 times in the past two years (losing 7 and 6), respectively. He has negative 2 yards rushing last year.

Bottom Line: Warner has just as much upside as the top 5 QBs, but has considerably more downside. Last year he was undervalued, but this year he is overvalued.



7) Tony Romo
Pros: In his 3 seasons as a starter, numbers have not been a problem for Romo. He has been a yardage and TD monster, and has been efficient with a 94.7 QB rating, 63.6 completion percentage, and 8.1 Y/A for his career. Marion Barber played through injury all last year and should be healthier to help the Cowboys’ offense this year, and Roy Williams looks ready to be the #1 receiver, reportedly trimming 10-15 pounds in the offseason. Romo also showed his toughness last year by playing injured last year.

Cons: When T.O. has left teams in the past, his former QB’s stats have suffered considerably. Romo also faces the intense pressure of expectations in Dallas. Plus, I would be pretty crushed if I broke up with Jessica Simpson.

Bottom Line: When T.O. left San Francisco and Philadelphia, those teams did not have a receiver the caliber of Roy Williams ready to take over the role of #1 wideout or a tight end like Jason Witten. Romo still has plenty of weapons and offers considerable upside.

TIER 3
8) Donovan McNabb
Pros: McNabb will have his best receiving corps since T.O. this year, with Desean Jackson entering his 2nd year, Kevin Curtis healthy, rookie Jeremy Maclin, and Reggie Brown. McNabb has never thrown a lot of INTs, and is an experienced player.

Cons: McNabb has a history of injuries, and could easily go down this season as well. In addition, Brian Westbrook, another fragile player, is not getting any younger, and if he gets hurt the Eagles offense will become a question mark. Lastly, the whole Michael Vick experiment (Wildcat, McNabb and Vick both playing at the same time) seems a bit risky.

Bottom Line: McNabb has potential this year with Jackson, Curtis, and Maclin. He also has his share of risks. I would avoid drafting him if it’s possible to wait and pick up a similar QB.

9) Matt Schaub
Pros: Houston threw for the 4th most yards in the league last year and boasts Andre Johnson and Kevin Walter. Steve Slaton is also excellent catching the ball out of the backfield. Upside upside upside.

Cons: Schaub can’t seem to stay on the field. Not only that, but he has been inconsistent when on the field.

Bottom Line: Schaub is one of the biggest gambles in the draft, offering the potential to be a top 5 QB or a player who you keep injured on your bench. If you think you can draft a good #2 QB later in the draft, feel free to draft Schaub ahead of Romo.

10) Carson Palmer
Pros: He says he’s healthy, and Coles should fill the hole left by Housh. Palmer will be airing it out this year, and could return to the 30 touchdown area. Cincinnati could find themselves in a lot of shootout games this year.

Cons: Even when he was healthy, Palmer struggled in 2007 when he threw 20 INTs. He still has a lot to prove as a top tier NFL quarterback, and won’t have the running game that he had with Rudi Johnson a few years ago. Is Ocho Cinco as good a player as before he changed his name?

Bottom Line: Palmer is a risky pick, but he has shown the ability to throw 30 TDs, and still has weapons. Draft him if you want to take a risk, but be ready to draft another QB soon after.

11) Matt Ryan
Pros: Ryan showed he has the ability to become one of the game’s best QBs in his rookie season. He wasn’t a dink and donk specialist, as demonstrated by his 7.9 Y/A. Now he has Tony Gonzalez, and young QBs love tight ends.

Cons: Atlanta ran the ball 35 times a game last year, so Ryan is clearly passing in a run-first offense. Will Atlanta pass more this year, and if they do, will Ryan be ready for it in his second year in the league?

Bottom Line: Ryan has upside, unlike many quarterbacks in a run first offense that simply dink and donk (e.g. Eli Manning, Brett Favre last year, Joe Flacco, Kerry Collins). However, it’s exciting to pick the young star in drafts, and somebody is going to reach for him. Don’t be that person.

12) Ben Roethlisberger
Pros: being an overrated manage-the-game quarterback earlier in his career, he has much more freedom now. This was mainly due to an atrocious offensive line and an extremely difficult schedule, two things that have to be better this year. Santonio Holmes looks ready to break out.

Cons: Big Ben always seems to be hurt and injuries have hurt his performance. Despite the Super Bowl performance, don’t forget that Roethlisberger had a horrible regular season last year, with just 17 passing TDs, 15 INTs, and 14 fumbles, 7 of which were lost. He has never passed for a lot of yards in his career, including last year when he averaged only 206 yards of passing a game.

Bottom Line: Big Ben is a solid pick as a trustworthy #2 QB, but doesn’t have the upside of the quarterbacks above and is a major injury risk.

13) Matt Hasselbeck
Pros: Hasselbeck showed what he can do without an effective Shaun Alexander 2 years ago by throwing for 28 TDs versus 12 INTs and almost 3966 yards. This year, he will be throwing to T.J. Houshmandzadeh to go with Nate Burleson and Deion Branch. He’ll also be throwing at division foes St. Louis, San Francisco, and Arizona.

Cons: When Hasselbeck did play last year, it wasn’t pretty. Even if he is healthy this year, he’s not a guarantee to be a 25+ TD quarterback, a mark he has accomplished only twice in his career. If he’s ineffective, Seneca Wallace is ready to take over.

Bottom Line: Hasselbeck is a risky pick, but is his upside in the later rounds far outweighs his downside. He could be a top 5 QB.

14) Jay Cutler
Pros: Cutler is going to be extremely motivated to stick it to Josh McDaniels, and certainly has the arm to do it. He is entering just his 4th season in the league, and threw for 4500+ yards last year. He also has run for 200 yards 2 years in a row.

Cons: Cutler will go from throwing to Brandon Marshall and Eddie Royal to…who? Devin Hester? It’s doubtful Cutler will approach 4000 yards passing with his most proven receivers are tight ends Greg Olsen and Desmond Clark. The Bears offense will be running the ball with Matt Forte much more than throwing bullets down field with Cutler.

Bottom Line: If Cutler was still in Denver, he could potentially be a top 5 QB pick. His talent is undeniable, and Cutler might make stars out of some unproven receivers in Chicago. Cutler should make for a solid QB2, but nothing more.

15) Matt Cassel
Pros: After struggling in the first third of the season, Cassel emerged as one of fantasy’s best QBs down the stretch. Despite not starting a game since high school, passed for almost 3700 yards, 21 TDs and 11 INTs. He’s also an underrated runner, and his 2 rushing TDs and 270 rushing yards provided a nice boost to his fantasy stats. He showed poise and accuracy while throwing 7 games with a 100+ QB rating last year. With continued development, Cassel could emerge as one of the league’s best QBs. The arrival of Todd Haley and a huge contract will mean KC is going to pass frequently this season.

Cons: Cassel’s most obvious con is that he was in New England last year, and although Dwayne Bowe is good, there are few other options in Kansas City. Cassel has reportedly been struggling during camp, and if he’s ineffective Brodie Croyle could run away with the QB job.

Bottom Line: Cassel is still unproven, but he certainly showed some skills last year that cannot simply be attributed to being in New England. He’s a risky pick who could become a QB1 or an ineffective QB in the free agent pool.

16) David Garrard
Pros: Fred Taylor left, and Torry Holt arrived in the offseason. MJD has never had 200 carries in a season, so it makes sense to think Garrard should be passing a lot this season and may eclipse his 3620 yards last season. His 2 rushing TDs and 322 rushing yards last year were very important for fantasy purposes.

Cons: Garrard has a solid floor, but he has never thrown for 20 TDs and that may be his upside. The Jacksonville offense will be based on MJD’s running.

Bottom Line: Garrard is a reliable #2 QB. He shouldn’t be any better or worse than that.

17) Trent Edwards
Pros: Entering his 3rd year, Edwards has room to grow. He certainly has toys to play with, as T.O. and Lee Evans could make one of the best tandems in the league.

Cons: Edwards is raw and Buffalo’s O-line is a major question mark. Young QBs and bad O-lines are not a pretty combination. Buffalo may not have a running game to back Edwards up, as Marshawn Lynch is a question mark and suspended for the first 3 games. T.O. could also cause headaches.

Bottom Line: Draft with fear, but T.O. has always made his QBs more successful in his first season with a new team.

18) Kyle Orton
Pros: Brandon Marshall is a stud and Eddie Royal seems to be a stud entering his 2nd year. Orton has never had a chance to throw to receivers of this caliber, and could produce a Cassel-like season under Josh McDaniel’s tutelage.

Cons: Orton is unproven and played in a run first system in Chicago. Last year he had an Eli Manning-like 58.5 completion percentage and 6.4 Y/A. At least 1 INT a game is likely as well.

Bottom Line: Orton may prove to be a decent QB2 by throwing it up there for Eddie Royal and Brandon Marshall. We don’t really know what he has to offer; Orton is one of the drafts mysteries.

Best of the Rest
19) Brett Favre
Bottom Line: Favre is again on a run first team, and is likely to do more dink and donking. His health problems last year may not have been as worrisome as his decision-making problems. Still, he is a hall of fame QB, so if he finds some of his old magic could become a reliable QB2.

20) Eli Manning
Bottom Line: Despite being the NFL’s highest paid player (gag), Eli is inaccurate down the field and relies on the Giants’ running game and throwing checkdown passes. In the past, he’d be able to accomplish some big gains by lobbing it to Plax, but now Plax is gone. Brady made it work with Reche Caldwell and Jabar Gaffney as his top 2 receivers, but to think Eli is capable of doing that would be foolish. Still, the Giants figure to move the ball with their great running game, and Eli may ride that running game to some offensive success as he has in the past.

21) Jake Delhomme
Bottom Line: Delhomme is extremely unreliable, but his heaves down field often find their way into Steve Smith’s hands. Delhomme is a high variance player and is more the hander offer than the thrower in Carolina’s offense, but he does have the potential to ride the amazing Smith.

22) Marc Bulger
Bottom Line: Bulger has completely collapsed the past couple seasons. If SJax goes down again, Bulger should be dropped immediately.

23) Shaun Hill
Bottom Line: If he wins the starting job over Alex Smith, consider that his 13 TDs and 115 rushing yards were over only 9 games.

24) Brady Quinn
Bottom Line: Braylon Edwards will need to come back with a vengeance in order for Quinn to have success, and even that may not be enough for Quinn to post good numbers this season. Derek Anderson could easily steal the job from Quinn in the preseason and just as easily take over the job in the regular season.

25) Jamarcus Russell
Bottom Line: Who knows? He has the talent.

26) Matt Leinart
Bottom Line: If Warner gets hurt, Leinart will inherit Arizona’s weapons.

27) Chad Pennington
Bottom Line: Game manager Pennington has absolutely zero fantasy upside. His okay numbers last year will even be hard to repeat.

28) Joe Flacco
Bottom Line: Despite the media’s adoration, Joe Flacco has an Eli Manning role for Baltimore and is quite raw

29) It really shouldn’t matter