Why the Lions and Jets were Right to Draft Stafford and Sanchez

The high risk involved when drafting a first round quarterback or even a top-5 caliber pick is well documented. Just search "first round quarterbacks" on Google if you want to get an idea. However, is it really that bad?

News came out today that Mark Sanchez signed a 5 year, $50 million dollar deal (with the potential to be worth $60 million with incentives), with $28 million in guaranteed money. Of course this is after Matthew Stafford signed a six-year contract worth up to $78 million with $41.7 million guaranteed. Now I do think these guys are being paid too much. Stafford has yet to play a down and has more guaranteed money in a contract than anyone has ever had.

Still, the issue of the amount of money a top 5 pick receives should not be confused with the issue of whether or not a quarterback is drafted with the pick. Even if the Lions selected Jason Smith, Smith also would be paid probably more than any other #1 overall pick in history (though perhaps not as much as Stafford). Inflation happens, the NFL salary cap increases, and so naturally salaries of #1 picks will increase over time.

It is easy to accuse the Lions and Jets of putting tens of millions of dollars into a risky investment. The quarterback could bust and then the team would have to deal with salary cap troubles; quarterbacks taken early often fail. Again, just search “first round quarterbacks” on Google.

Another key piece of evidence that Lions and Jets could be making the wrong decision is that teams this decade have perhaps been overvaluing quarterbacks. History shows teams have been taking quarterbacks much more frequently with early picks recently. Since 1998, 9 of the 12 #1 overall picks have been quarterbacks. Before that, only 7 quarterbacks were drafted #1 since the AFL-NFL merger! Those picks came in 1993 (Bledsoe), 1989 (Aikman), 1987 (Testaverde), 1983 (Elway), 1975 (Bartkowski), 1971 (Plunkett), and 1970 (Bradshaw). Notice that the only complete bust was Testaverde for Tampa Bay in 1987, and there were several legends in that group. Maybe teams knew when to draft quarterbacks back then, and teams are just being plain stupid now.

Now I want to support the Lions and Jets.

Let’s make the argument that quarterbacks were simply undervalued before recently. The argument for taking a quarterback with an early pick centers around the fact that the quarterback is the most important position on almost every team. While drafting a player of another position may carry less risk, that player doesn't have the potential to carry a team to the Super Bowl. If you have a bad quarterback, you can forget about your Super Bowl hopes. Just look at Minnesota, which has the makings of a great team with the exception of the quarterback position. Now, Minnesota is desperately trying to recruit Brett Favre, who is coming off an atrocious season.

Let’s say you are the GM of an NFL team with the #1 overall pick. What situation would you rather have? A player that has a 75% chance to be Orlando Pace (1st overall pick in 1997) and a small chance of being a complete bust or a 25% chance of being Peyton Manning and a 20% chance of being a complete bust? I’d take the latter situation.
I know that Orlando Pace has had an incredible career, is a 5-time First-team All-Pro, and a certain Hall of Famer. The left tackle position is extremely important, as it protects the quarterback’s blind side. However, Peyton Manning is going to do a lot more for my franchise in terms of excitement and success, obviously giving me a MUCH greater chance at achieving my Super Bowl aspirations. No matter how good my left tackle is, the potential positive impact he can have on my offense will pale in comparison to that of my quarterback.

To show the importance of a quarterback, consider the Super Bowl quarterbacks of this century: Warner, McNair, Dilfer, Collins, Brady, Brad Johnson, Gannon, McNabb, Roethlisberger, Hasselbeck, Peyton, Rex Grossman, and Eli. 8 of those 13 quarterbacks were drafted in the first round. In addition, the overall picks of those 8 quarterbacks were generally very early, being 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 11, and 22 (Grossman). Good luck to teams who don’t have first round quarterbacks and need to look for 6th round gems (Brady, Hasselbeck). Also, sorry but the Arena League has folded if you are hoping for the next Kurt Warner. As for trading for a Jay Cutler, it's not often that a top quarterback gets traded in his prime.

There should be a lot of quarterback busts, and if there aren’t, something is wrong. Teams should be willing to take greater risks with a quarterback, because a successful quarterback yields greater reward than any other position, and a Super Bowl victory is a much greater high than having the worst record in the league is a low. If half of the quarterbacks taken #1 overall were legends before recently, then teams were definitely undervaluing quarterbacks.

Good job Detroit Lions and New York Jets.