Yang Time: The Merits of Heavy 3-Point Shooting

During the regular season, Orlando averaged 26.2 3-point shots per game, which was the 2nd most in the league behind the Knicks (27.9). 26.2 threes is a lot, as the team that shot the 3rd most threes (Nets) shot 5 less threes per game, and the league average was 18.1 threes per game.

Usually, a team that “lives or dies by the 3-pointer” is not commended for their heavy perimeter shooting mentality. However, there are two sides to the story. When a team relies on lower percentage shots, especially perimeter shooting, to account for much of its scoring, it plays with a high variance on the number of points it can score on any given night. 3-point shooting for the Magic accounts for 29.7 percent of its scoring, the highest percentage in the league (league average is 19.9 percent).

This high variance is dangerous in 2 ways, one good one bad:
1) The Magic are more vulnerable to lesser teams. If the Magic have an off night shooting, they could lose to teams that they should not lose to. For example, when Orlando shot 5 for 18 from the 3-point land in Game 1 against Philadelphia, they surprisingly lost to the 76ers. By contrast, the 76ers shot 7-12 from 3-point land that game.
2) The Magic are more dangerous to the Cavs and the Lakers. In the Cleveland series, Orlando’s sharpshooters were hot. In games 1 to 6, they shot 9/20 (45.0%), 10/23 (43.5), 6/17 (35.3), 17/38 (44.7), 8/25 (32.0), and 12/29 (41.4). The losses came in game 2 (Lebron’s shot) and game 5, an off night shooting. I don’t think that Orlando is a better team than Cleveland, but they were able to squeeze out victories despite Lebron’s amazing games (with the exception of the blowout in game 6) with great shooting nights. Their actual offensive output, due to higher variance, can be much greater than their average/expected offensive output.
When people blindly criticize teams that shoot a lot of 3’s, they fail to take into account that in the NBA, teams’ expected value on a 3-point shot (3-point percentage*3) is higher than teams’ expected value on 2-point shots (2-point percentage*2) almost all of the time. For this season, on average, the first number is 1.10, and the second number is 0.97. The only team that has a higher expected value for 2-pointers than 3-pointers are the 76ers, who only shoot 13.1 3-pointers per game (2nd to last in the league).

Here is a preview of the 3-point shooting for the finals

	Magic		Lakers		League Average
	Reg	Post	Reg	Post	Reg	Post
Made	10.0	8.6	6.7	7.1	6.7	6.4
Attempted	26.2	23.4	18.5	18.8	18.1	18.3
Percentage	38.1	36.7	36.1	37.9	36.5	34.9
% of pts by 3	29.7	26.2	18.8	20.7	19.9	20.3
3-pt EV	1.143	1.101	1.083	1.137	1.096	1.048
2-pt fg%	49.4	50.9	50.5	49.5	48.5	47.6
2-pt EV	0.988	1.017	1.009	0.990	.971	0.952

NOTE: each team weighed equally in the league average column

For the Magic to win this series over what is probably a more complete Lakers team, they have to have some hot 3-point shooting. If Jameer Nelson came back as he apparently might (45.3% from 3, 2nd best in the league), that would certainly help. However, a big worry is that Rashard Lewis, who led the league in 3-pointers made and attempted in the regular season by shooting 7.0 threes per game at a 39.7% clip (down to 1.9/4.8, 39.1% in playoffs), will now be guarded by a more athletic power forward if Lamar Odom is on the court for the Lakers. Contrast Odom to Big Baby or Anderson Varejao (gag).