2008 Fantasy Football Season Lookback, What to Look for in 2009

With the exception of leagues that go into week 17 (poorly set up leagues), the 2008 Fantasy Football Season is over. Here are the fantasy football awards for 2008 (rankings, points in terms of Yahoo default scoring and rank).

2008 Fantasy Football MVP: DeAngelo Williams (1337 rush yrds, 121 receiving yrds, 20 total tds)
Yahoo Rank: 1
After not scoring a td or topping 8 points in the first 4 games of the season, Williams went on a tear, as he only had one other game without a td all season. He single-handedly won many fantasy leagues with his week 16 performance (108 yrds, 4 tds), and ranks #1 in all of yahoo despite having an ADP of 113.4 (37th back selected on average). He wasn't even the top running back drafted on his team, as 1st round pick Jonathan Stewart had an ADP of 87.9.

2009 Outlook:
Williams figures to still be in a significant timeshare with Jonathan Stewart next year, and will be hard-pressed to post anywhere near similar numbers in 2009. He's a player to avoid on draft day next year.

MVP First Runner-Up: Aaron Rodgers (248.7 y/g, 25 tds, 13 ints, 208 yrds rushing, 4 tds)
Yahoo Rank: 4
Despite Green Bay's record this year, Aaron Rodgers showed he is going to be their quarterback for a long time, as well as a fantasy force. With weapons such as Jennings and Driver, Rodgers seemed to be in a perfect position to thrive this year, and was one of my favorite players to target in drafts. With an ADP of 121.4 (24th quarterback selected), Rodgers was the ultimate steal. He scored the second most points of any player (behind Brees).

2009 Outlook:
Rodgers should be able to post similar numbers and is a player to draft confidently.

MVP 2nd Runner-Up: Kurt Warner (288.0 yards/game, 26 tds, 13 int, 0 rushing points)
Yahoo Rank: 11
I made sure to grab Warner in all my leagues this year (along with Leinart), as he was being severely undervalued with an ADP of of 115.8 (23rd qb selected). Following a 27 td season last year and an aging Edge, Warner's season this year shouldn't have come as too much of a surprise. With Boldin, Fitzgerald, and absolutely no running game, Warner delivered huge numbers for Arizona and playoff fantasy teams. Hopefully you sat him against New England in week 16 though after reports of snow and that he would sit in the second half.

2009 Outlook:
Warner should post similar numbers again if Boldin and Fitzgerald are healthy. However, Arizona will probably try to run the ball more next year so expect less yardage.

Other Runner-Ups: Michael Turner, Drew Brees, Phillip Rivers, Matt Forte, Steve Slaton, Chris Johnson, Thomas Jones, Matt Cassel

2008 Fantasy Football LVPs (excluding Tom Brady):
Tied-LVP: LT, Steven Jackson, Addai
In the average draft, LT was drafted first, Jackson drafted 3rd, and Addai drafted fifth. In actual rank over the season, LT was 21st, Jackson was 50th, and Addai was 111th.

LT has only averaged 3.6 ypc this year, has scored only 9 total tds this year, and has struggled with his toe. Although LT has accumulated 1014 yards and 426 receiving yards this season, those numbers are also far below expectations. San Diego has turned into a passing team (perhaps due to LT's dropoff), as Rivers throws for about 60 more yards per game as he did last year and already has 32 passing tds on the season.

Jackson and Addai have both dealt with injuries, and this is the main cause for their lackluster numbers. However, Jackson, even when healthy, has fewer scoring opportunities due to the Ram's inept passing game.

2009 Outlook:
All three backs should bounce back next year to be worthy of first round selections.
Now that Rivers has proven himself to be a top quarterback in the league, defenses will have to fear him next year, opening up opportunities for a healthier LT, who is still LT.
Jackson and Addai will both only be 26 next year. St. Louis's offense has to score more than the 13.7 pts/game they did this year, and Addai is still in a perfect situation in Indianapolis.

Runner-Ups: Cincinnati and Cleveland Players
Braylon Edwards, Housh, Ocho Cinco, Jamal Lewis, Palmer, Derek Anderson, and Winslow were all drafted in the first 4 maybe 5 rounds in drafts. Ohio's teams both seemed poised to be offensive juggernauts this season, but instead Cleveland scored 15.5 pts per game and Cincinnati scored 12.5 points per game due to a combination of injuries and overall inept play.
2009 Outlook:
Avoid all these players. Also don't expect too much from Cedric Benson and his 3.4 ypc (his week 16 performance came against the Browns remember)

Other LVP Runner-Ups: Roethlisberger, Holt, McGahee, Plax

Rookies of the Year: Matt Forte, Steve Slaton, and Chris Johnson
All were top 10 rbs this season and will have high upside for next year.

10 Players to Draft Next Season:
1) Reggie Bush--injury concerns will scare off many from drafting him, but he showed he can be extremely effective when healthy by averaging 40 rush yrds and 60 receiving yrds per game to go along with 5 tds in the 6 weeks before he got injured.
2) Chris Johnson--upside
3) Marques Colston--if he was healthy all season this year, his numbers would've been top 5 WR worthy in the New Orleans passing attack.
4) Bernard Berrian--upside
5) Matt Schaub--if he's healthy and Andre Johnson is healthy, he'll throw 25+ tds
6) Roethlisberger--offensive line has to be better next year
7) Matt Jones--made huge strides this year
8) Ryan Grant--unlucky that he's only scored 5 tds so far this season
9) Tony Gonzalez--so certain at a thin position
10) Antonio Gates--ditto

10 players to avoid next season:
1) Tyler Thigpen--54.9 completion percentage, 75.8 qbrating (last 4 games: 72.5)
2) Tavaris Jackson--that qbrating is deceiving, since the Vikings don't throw the ball frequently
3) Brian Westbrook--if he falls to you late in the first round you have to take him, but he's been playing hurt for a number of years now and will be 30 next year
4) DeAngelo Williams--fantasy MVP won't do it again (above)
5) Thomas Jones--15 tds is a fluke
6) Marion Barber--Felix Jones and now Tashard Choice
7) Cedric Benson--see above
8) Marvin Harrison--declining
9) Lance Moore--unless Colston and Bush both get hurt again
10) Tight Ends other than Gonzo, Gates, Clark, Witten--don't reach they're all pretty much the same

Will the Real Brett Favre Please Stand Up One Last Time

Next week, the Miami Dolphins will travel to play the New York Jets in an AFC East showdown with major playoff implications. This game may be Brett Favre's last game ever as an NFL quarterback; I hope that just one last time, the great Brett Favre will show up.

I remember a couple weeks ago, after Favre played poorly in a loss to Denver, my friend Zach and I discussed the success of Brett Favre over his career. Zach told me, "My dad and I both agree that Brett Favre has always been a horrible quarterback. He just throws it up there and sees what happens. That's why he's thrown so many interceptions. You'll never convince me he's a good quarterback." Despite the fact that Zach was a recruited quarterback and his dad was a former NFL wideout (who once caught 554 yards in a season and went to the Super Bowl), I thought my opinion was surely correct. Surely Brett Favre, the 7-time All-Pro, 3-time MVP, and Super Bowl champion, was one of the greatest quarterbacks to ever play the game.

Unfortunately, Favre's play in recent weeks has fuelled his doubters and saddened his fans. As a general football fan, it also saddens me to see one of the game's legendary figures possibly leave the league playing so poorly. In the last 4 games, Favre has hardly looked like an NFL quarterback, much less a great NFL quarterback.

It seems like ages ago that Favre threw for 6 touchdowns against Arizona in week 4. After that game, he had thrown for 12 tds on the season compared to 4 interceptions. Brett was the same Brett as always, even at age 39. He was still firing bullets and bombs downfield, still grinning as if he was a rookie.

5 weeks ago, the Jets were 8-3, seemed primed for a Super Bowl run after upsetting the undefeated Tennessee Titans, and Favre was receiving consideration as a possible MVP candidate. 5 games later, the Jets, at 9-6, seem primed for an offseason of disappointment, and Favre deserves much of the blame.

Even in the Jets win against the Bills, Favre struggled to lead his team down the field to win the game at the end of the 4th quarter, missing wide open receivers all over the place. Luckily, bone-headed JP Losman eventually bailed Favre out with a miracle fumble. Yesterday against the woeful Seahawks, there was no such luck, and it's becoming increasingly difficult to stand up for the lovable Favre. In the past 4 games, Favre has posted qb ratings of 60.9, 60.8, 61.4, 48.7. He has thrown 6 inteceptions to 1 touchdown, and has now thrown an NFL-high 19 interceptions. If this is how Brett Favre is going to go out, it's a shame for everyone. He would go out as the player who destroyed his team and took them out of the playoff picture.
His doubters would have the final say. They would point to his record 300+ career interceptions rather than his 450+ career passing touchdowns. They would point to his 5 (possibly 6 after this season) seasons of 20+ interceptions rather than his 8 seasons of 30+ touchdowns. They would say his risks, such as his across-body, across-field interception yesterday, show who he really is. The last image of Favre would be of a quarterback who can no longer lead a team to important victories. It wouldn't be of a youthful 39-year-old, but instead of an aging 39-year-old. It wouldn't be of bullets, but instead of consistently underthrown balls. Favre would go out looking tired, weary, gray, and defeated.

I'm hoping that won't happen next Sunday. I hope that Favre will come out Sunday firing bullets, throwing touchdown passes, and leading the Jets to a final victory. As a Patriots fan, it would excite me to see my team win its division. However, it would mean more than that to the league. It would help restore Favre, and give his past greatness and supporters the final say. It would show us that even at 39 years old, Favre is still an exciting, excited player. His risks down the field can be approached with an "Ohh that's just Brett being Brett attitude" in a tone similar to "Let boys be boys." Brett Favre is a great person and deserves to be remembered as the ageless, rather than the aged.
12/31/08-It seems that Brett will be remembered as the aged. Despite his injuries, the decision-making he showed in Sunday's loss to the Dolphins (3 atrocious interceptions, no other way to say it) was hard to watch. It's time to retire.

Pro Bowl Corrections

Pro Bowl rosters came out today, and of course everyone has their gripes. Here are my 5 disagreements, in order of increasing severity.

5. Wes Welker
Wes Welker is a Pro Bowl caliber player having a Pro Bowl Caliber year and I'm glad he received his first Pro Bowl selection, but I don't think he's been better than Randy Moss. I know he has 102 receptions and 1071 yards through 14 games, but Randy Moss should have his spot. Welker's stats thrive because defenses have to dedicate so much attention to Moss. If defenses were to swarm Welker instead, Moss's numbers would be overwhelming. Moss's value is higher to the Patriots, and so he should be in the Pro Bowl.

Replace Welker: 102 receptions, 1071 yards, 1 TD
with Moss: 66 receptions, 908 yards, 10 TDs4. Le'Ron McClain
He's the AFC fullback, but he's only a pro bowl selection because of what he has done as a running back. That's not right. Replace him with his teammate Lorenzo Neal, the best fullback.

Replace McClain
with Lorenzo Neal

3. Ronnie Brown
Ronnie Brown has had a great season and his comeback is one of the biggest reasons for the Dolphin's turnaround this season, but he has not been the AFC's 3rd best running back. That honor should go to Steve Slaton or Ladainian Tomlinson. Both those players have more rushing yards, receptions, and receiving yards, and only 1 less touchdown than Ronnie Brown. Defenses also must dedicate themselves to stopping LT, and this opens up things for Rivers.

Replace Ronnie Brown: 195 att, 827 yrds, 4.2 avg, 10 TD, 24 rec, 218 yrds, 1 Fumble, 1 Lost
with Slaton: 230 att, 1124 yrds, 4.9 avg, 9 TD (1 rec), 40 rec, 305 yrds, 2 Fumble, 1 Lost
or LT: 257 att, 924 yrds, 3.6 avg, 9 TD (1 rec), 50 rec, 406 yrds, 1 Fumble, 0 Lost
2. Brett Favre
Brett Favre is a Hall of Fame quarterback, but this is not one of his better seasons. The Jets are 9-5, and I understand they were 4-12 last year, but I would be cautious to give Favre too much credit for this reversal. Keep in mind this team was 10-6 two years ago, 4-12 three years ago, and 10-6 4 years ago, 6-10 5 years ago, 9-7 6 years ago (when they won the division). Last year was more of an abberration in which Jonathan Vilma missed half the season and the Jets had no quarterback.

We can conclude that Favre was better than the combination of Pennington/Clemens last year, but a lot of quarterbacks would have been better than that. Fact is, this team relies on its running game and Favre has thrown 17 interceptions already this season.

Philip Rivers, on the other hand, has posted outstanding numbers to lift San Diego's offense despite the loss of Lorenzo Neal and San Diego's running game. He's the top-rated passer in the league and has made a star out of Vincent Jackson.

Replace Favre: 86.5 QBRating, 3052 yards, 67.6 completion percentage, 6.8 Y/A, 21 TD, 17 INT
with Rivers: 101.4 QBRating, 3513 yards, 64.6 completion percentage, 8.2 Y/A, 28 TD, 11 INT

1. Eli Manning
The Giants solid defense and running game are bringing Eli Manning along for the ride, and yet Eli receives all the credit for the Giants record. Look what happened against Dallas without Plaxico and Brandon Jacobs. To say the Giants' offense has been ineffective the last two games would be a compliment, and hopefully those who thought Eli was deserving of the MVP award this season have shut up. Eli Manning was sacked 8 times against Dallas, and many of those sacks could be blamed on him holding the ball.

Eli Manning is not what makes the Giants' offense run, and certainly not why the team wins. Instead, replace Manning with Tony Romo.

Romo did throw a late pick against Pittsburgh that lost the game, but he's really been having an outstanding season. Without Romo, the Cowboys got pummeled by the Rams. With Romo, the Cowboys are again a feared and dangerous team. Romo's ability to keep his cool and thus to keep his offense together, despite Ed Werder and T.O., shows that off the field Romo is a great leader.

PLEASE Replace: Eli: 86.4 QBRating, 2938 yards, 60.3 completion percentage, 6.8 Y/A, 20 TD, 10 INT
with Romo: 98.3 QBRating, 3013 yards (missed 3 games), 63.1 completion percentage, 8.2 Y/A, 24 TD, 11 INT
OTHER
Gostkowski received a well-deserved Pro Bowl nod. Something has to be said when somebody steps in for a Hall of Fame, beloved kicked like Adam Vinatieri and makes it a smooth transition.

It's good to see Nnamdi Asomugha be a Pro Bowl starter this year (last year only a reserve). He is well known to be the best cornerback in the league, and unfortunately has to play in Oakland. Last season, quarterbacks were so scared to throw it at him that he was only thrown at 31 times (!), allowing 10 completions. So far this year he has only allowed 8 completions. He's not going to have huge interception totals, because people are too scared to throw the ball at him! If he gets snubbed from the NFL All-Pro team again this year, it would be a great injustice. It's sad that great players such as Asomugha can be unheralded because they play for bad teams, while mediocre players (ahem Eli Manning) can become stars because they play for great ones.
It's unforunate that the NFC can't have a 5th WR spot to allow Calvin Johnson to become a pro bowler. It's amazing what he is doing despite drawing constant double coverage and playing for Detroit's offense, which averages the 4th fewest yards/game in the league.