Starting with the week 1 injury to Tom Brady, the quarterback position so far this year has been by far the most unpredictable. For the most part, there have been few surprising performances at the other positions. Here I will give my opinion on how the second half will fare for some quarterbacks that have been surprisingly good or surprisingly bad thus far.
QuarterbacksBUY:
Kurt Warner-Warner is 2nd in yards and has thrown for 14 touchdowns versus just 6 interceptions, good for the 4th most valuable quarterback in all of fantasy so far. He thinks he's playing as well as he ever has, and that may be the truth. He has a 70.2 completion percentage and has a yards/attempt of 8.0. Why do I think he will continue to put up monster numbers?
1) The Cardinals cannot run the ball with Edge, so will continue to throw 30, 40 times a game (or 57, the number of passes Warner threw against the Jets) for the rest of the year.
2) Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin are as good as they get, and oh yeah Steve Breaston is also on pace for 1000 yards.
3) This performance is not completely out of the blue at all: Warner was very good last year too. Through 14 games, he threw for 27 Tds, 17 Ints, and 3417 yards (7.6 Y/A).
Tony Romo-Apparently there is a poll in some New York newspaper about who is the better quarterback between Tony Romo and Eli Manning. That has to be a joke. Romo was having another fantastic year (will we ever be able to say that about Eli?) before he got hurt, and when he comes back he'll also have superathletic Roy Williams to throw to.
That's going to be sick. The rib injury to Witten could hurt, but Romo will have plenty of weapons regardless. He or Brees will be the best fantasy quarterback in the game when he comes back.
Aaron Rodgers-This is the reason why the Packers let go of Brett Favre. Considering his first start ever in the NFL came in week 1 of this season, it's really amazing how great Rodgers has been. He currently has the 3rd most fantasy points of any quarterback this year, and he'll only get better and better as he gains experience. Also, Greg Jennings is for real.
Jay Cutler-An injury has hampered his play a bit recently, but Cutler is definitely going to be one of the best in the second half of the season. With Denver's defense giving up the 4th most points in the league and 3rd most yards, the Broncos figure to be in a lot of shootouts in the second half of the year, and Cutler is well equipped to win a lot of them. Cutler will be airing it out to Brandon Marshall and Eddie Royal and should throw for at least 30 touchdowns by the end of the season.
SELL:
Derek Anderson-I thought his play was a little overrated at points last year, as he did throw 19 interceptions and had only a 56.5 completion percentage. His Y/A was 7.2 and rating was 82.5. In the last few games of last season, he was horrible. Many people are targeting Anderson as a buy low candidate right now, citing the return of Donte Stallworth, the return of Braylon Edward's hands, and Browns' recent winning. If I were an Anderson owner, I'd be looking to trade away Anderson as his value is up after a good last few games. Anderson takes a lot of risks, and a lot of them paid off last season. However, I don't think he's going to be putting up high 20 touchdown seasons anymore unless the Browns are willing to have him throw 20 interceptions in the process.
Peyton Manning-In no way am I saying Peyton is not still a top 10 quarterback this year, but he's not going to be putting up the numbers we are accustomed to for the rest of this season. There is clearly something wrong with his knee, even if we will never know exactly what is going on with it (the secrecy of NFL injuries is getting ridiculous), and Marvin Harrison sadly is in the decline of his career. He should be a good-but-not-great quarterback, so trade him away to some Peyton lover who thinks Peyton is going to post a 100 qb rating the rest of the way.
Philip Rivers-Rivers is the #1 quarterback in the game thus far, as he has established rapport with Vincent Jackson and Chris Chambers to go along with LT, Gates, and Darren Sproles. Rivers will continue to be an excellent option the rest of the way, but his pace will have to slow down as LT will get his touchdowns soon. LT only has two rushing touchdowns from inside the 10 yard line (both 2 yarders), while Rivers has 5 passing touchdowns from inside the 10 yard line (1, 1, 4, 6, and 9 yards, with the 9-yarder being on first down). That ratio will even out as eventually teams will protect more against the pass inside the red zone, leaving LT with more rushing scores and Rivers with less passing ones.
Rivers will continue to be a solid option and a good #1 quarterback the rest of the way, but not a top-5 quarterback in the second half.
QB rankings for the second half:
Tier 1
1) Brees-and now Colston is back
2) Romo
3) Cutler
4) Warner
5) Rodgers
Tier 2
6) Roethlisberger-doing a great job without Parker and struggling line
7) Rivers
8) McNabb-Can Westbrook stay healthy?
9) Peyton Manning
10) Favre
11) Schaub
12) Delhomme
13) Bulger-Where have you gone Torry Holt?
Tier 3
14) Derek Anderson
15) Garrard
16) Pennington
17) Campbell
18) Eli Manning
19) Cassel-building rapport with Moss
20) Matt Ryan
21) Orton
