Sunday, August 31, 2008

A Couple Thoughts on the Cy Young

1. Should there be an easier way for someone like C.C. Sabathia to win the Cy Young?

C.C. Sabathia just pitched another complete game, a 1-hitter in fact. There's no doubt that if he had his combined statistics in only the NL or only the AL, he would be a favorite for the Cy Young and quite possibly the favorite. He's been the best when it counts the most, lifting the Milwaukee Brewers from fighting for a playoff spot when he was acquired to being 5.5 games ahead of Philadelphia and 6.5 ahead of St. Louis. He's going to pitch about a thousand innings, including 9 complete games so far.

Now I'm not saying that he'd be a lock in the AL or the NL, as Lincecum and Cliff Lee have been incredible as well, but to think that switching leagues hurts his chances isn't quite fair. The purpose of the Cy Young is the BEST pitcher (unlike the MVP so there's no debate over the the word "valuable"). Perhaps a player who switches leagues should have his statistics from the other league counted in some way. Otherwise, it's certainly possible that the BEST pitcher in the MLB might not win the Cy Young some years, and that should never happen.

Sabathia will still get a lot of votes for the NL Cy Young award and with an incredible September might just win it anyways. Still, we shouldn't wait for something bad to occur in order to fix a problem. Whether or not C.C. wins his 2nd consecutive Cy Young or not this year, the issue deserves further discussion.

2. K-Rod, chill out. Voters, don't be ridiculous.
It would be ridiculous if Francisco Rodriguez wins the Cy Young because he breaks the save record. Absolutely ridiculous. I'm sorry, but his season is not even comparable to Eric Gagne's Cy Young season. How many saves did Gagne blow? Zero! He had an ERA of 1.20 and a WHIP of 0.692. He also pitched 82 1/3 innings, throwing 137 Ks.

K-Rod this year has an ERA of 2.47 with a WHIP of 1.22. Now, to emphasize those differences there would be nitpicking a little, but the fact that K-Rod has blown 5 saves is extremely significant. K-Rod has pitched 58 1/3 innings, throwing 67 Ks. Clearly, K-Rod's season cannot even compare with Gagne's so far. The only advantage K-Rod will have is more saves. K-Rod will have more than Gagne's 55 that season (as of today K-Rod has 53).

I find it comical that there is hype over the saves record. From the standpoint of the closer, breaking the record is more a matter of chance that his team offers him so many opportunities. Personally, I think Mariano is more deserving of the award with his 32 saves to 1 blown save, 1.46 ERA, 0.70 WHIP, 62 2/3 innings, and 70 Ks. That's right, I don't even think K-Rod is the best reliever in the AL this year.

Imagine if K-Rod doesn't break the saves record and gets 56 saves. How many less votes would he receive than if he had 57, and how many less than if he had 58? Yeah, it doesn't make much sense, does it? So what if somebody breaks a record?

I read the other day that it would mean a lot to K-Rod if he broke the saves record and I cracked up. I'd rather have 55 saves and zero blown saves than 65 and 5 blown saves.

The only way somebody can win a Cy Young award after blowing 5 saves should be if they were big in the big moments, but K-Rod hasn't had to deal with pressure (the Angels are 17 games ahead in their division). Compare that to each of Mariano's saves right now.

So baseball voters, if you vote for K-Rod as your Cy Young pick, you need to not be a baseball voter anymore. Seriously, I think they should take each one of those voters and kick them out of the voting for any kind of award ever again. There is absolutely no way K-Rod should get a single first-place vote for the AL Cy Young. It's a 2-way battle between Cliff Lee and Roy Halladay right now, with Lee winning.

Rudi Johnson Released

So the big news in fantasy yesterday was that Rudi Johnson was released by the Cincinnati Bengals. This is the Rudi Johnson that rushed for 12 TDs in each of the 2004, 2005, and 2006 seasons, so the Johnson owners expecting a significant late round steal clearly are upset. However, this move should not have come as a big surprise, given Rudi's struggles this preseason with his health and numerous warnings from coach Lewis. Hopefully, you didn't put too many eggs in the basket of the faded star.

What does this mean, fantasy wise? Well, many have taken this to mean Chris Perry is the free agent pick up of the year, as I've read that over the last 24 hours Perry's ownership has jumped from around 4% to around 35%. In most leagues, Perry should indeed be picked up, but the hype has clearly been overdone. In many public yahoo leagues, players like DeAngelo Williams and Chris Johnson are available, two players with far more potential than that of Chris Perry.
Now if players such as Chris Johnson, Mendenhall, DeAngelo Williams, Fargas, or Felix Jones are available, all those players deserve a pickup ahead of Perry. Well ahead, in fact. Yeah, Chris Perry was a first round pick (4 years ago though), but he's only rushed for 337 yards in his career. Everybody knows who he is since he played for Michigan, but playing at a good program won't help you break tackles. Fact is, Perry has never had a game with double digit carries, didn't play last year, and had 10 total carries the year before that. You think the Bengals are going to throw him out there for 20+ carries a game? If they do, there's no way he'll last even close to the whole season (so they won't).

While Perry could prove me wrong, there is definitely some overexcitement over a player who will struggle to match half of Rudi's old numbers. The main fantasy impact of Rudi Johnson's release is a positive bump for Cincinnati's passing attack. Carson Palmer owners should be in store for more of a monster season than before, along with Housh owners. Ocho Psycho owners, who knows?

Friday, August 29, 2008

Yahoo Salary Cap Football Best Values

Yahoo Salary Cap Football usually offers many bargains, and I'm highlighting a few of them for week 1.

Quarterbacks
Drew Brees ($19.25) vs Tampa Bay--I think that his production this year could be just as good as that of Manning and Romo, yet Brees is 3-4 dollars cheaper due to his below-expectations season last year. Coming into his third year with the Saints, his weapons include Colston, Bush (both entering their magical third years, and you know Bush is out to prove himself), new addition Jeremy Shockey, David Patten, Meachem, and Devery Henderson.

Also, if Brees thrives, you can ride him all the way until his bye week in week 9.

Philip Rivers ($13.72) vs Carolina--Carolina's defense has gone to shit. Rivers is ridiculously cheap at $13.72. The Chargers should score a lot on Sunday, and Rivers should get his share unless LT rushes for 3-4 TDs (which is possible).

Marc Bulger ($10.95) @ Philadelphia--Like Carolina, Philadelphia is another case of a defense that used to be good but isn't anymore. Bulger is healthy with receivers Holt and Drew Bennett and a healthy (and now happy) Steven Jackson. A healthy Marc Bulger for $10.95??! Even if he didn't finally have a good preseason game in the 3rd preseason game, I would take him at that price.

J.T. O'Sullivan? ($1.62) vs Arizona--Honestly, I don't know anything about this guy except I guess he has a strong arm. But hey, at a dirt cheap price, a starting QB playing Arizona may be worth a shot. He does have Frank Gore, Bryant Johnson, Issac Bruce, and Mike Martz, who knows a thing or two about succeeding with obscure quarterbacks.

Running Backs
AP ($14.20) @ GB--$14.20? This is the Minnesota Vikings' Adrian Peterson, right? At this price, he better be on every team there is.

Frank Gore ($12.54) vs Arizona--The wild card is nobody knows how good J.T. will be, but this is Frank Gore and Arizona's D sucks.

Earnest Graham ($10.25) @NO--7 TDs in his last 7 games last year, and New Orleans D sucks. Game is in a dome too.

Darren McFadden ($4.88) vs Denver--This is pretty fucking cheap for someone that talented.

Michael Turner ($3.91) vs Det--hahaha so cheap, and at the home dome against Matt Millen's team.

Wide Receivers
Jerricho Cotchery ($8.24) @Mia--He now has Favre of course and the game is at Miami, the best team in the league.

Calvin Johnson ($7.34) @Atl--It's Matt Ryan's first game and Atlanta's D is horrible. Detroit figures to have the ball a lot in this game.

Ted Ginn Jr. ($4.44) vs NYJ--He's fast, agile, and Pennington's got to throw to someone. The other options aren't so great.

Tight Ends
Jason Witten ($9.53) @ Cle--Witten is either the #1 or #2 TE in my mind. Gates should not be more than $1.50 over him and 3 other TEs should not be more expensive, especially against Cleveland.

Fantasy Football Draft Cheat Sheet

Below is the cheat sheet that I used on draft day. On this sheet are all the players that I'd really have an interest in drafting. Some players who I had no interest in are omitted, including Eli Manning (Mr. Inconsistent) and fragile Fred (Taylor).

This cheat sheet is designed for standard Yahoo Leagues (details), which is non-ppr. There is no round for kickers and defenses because I always take them late, and I may not take a kicker at all if there is time to make trades before Week 1 rolls around.

Also note that there isn't an overall ranking for all positions, as such a list is often useless due to the variation of positional availability between drafts. However, looking at the roughly projected round will give an overall idea of how I think players of different positions stack up (this is the main purpose of the round columns).

Quarterbacks Round
Brady 1
Manning 2.3
Romo 2.3
Brees 3
Roethlisberger 4.5
Palmer 5
Derek Anderson 5.6
Hasselbeck 7
McNabb 8
Cutler 8
Bulger 10
Favre 10
Garrard 10
Rodgers 10
Schaub 10.11
Rivers 11
Delhomme 12
Warner 13
Kitna 13.14
Vince Young 16
Campbell 16

Running Backs Round
LT 1
AP 1
Addai 1
Steven Jackson 1
Westbrook 1
Gore 1
Barber 1.2
Lynch 1.2
Portis 1.2
LJ 2
Grant 2.3
Jamal Lewis 2.3
Jones-Drew 2.3
McGahee 3
Maroney 3.4
B. Jacobs 3.4
Parker 4.5
Turner 4.5
Reggie Bush 6
Thomas Jones 6
Earnest Graham 6
Lendale White 6.7
Selvin Young 6.7
Edge 6.7
Ronnie Brown 7
Jonathan Stewart 7
McFadden 8
DeAngelo Williams 11
Matt Forte 11
Kevin Smith 11
Chris Johnson 12
Ahman Green 12
Julius Jones 13
Mendenhall 13
Felix Jones 13
Ricky Williams 13
Wide Receivers Round
Moss 2
TO 2
Wayne 2.3
Braylon 2.3
Andre 2.3
Fitz 2.3
Colston 3.4
Housh 3.4
Holt 3.4
Steve Smith 3.4
Chad Johnson 4
Boldin 4
Plax 4.5
Roy Williams 5
Welker 5
Holmes 5
Marshall 5.6
White 6.7
Jennings 6.7
Calvin Johnson 6.7
Bowe 6.7
Evans 6.7
Cotchery 6.7
Coles 8
Marvin Harrison 8
Ward 8
S. Moss 8
Driver 10
Galloway 10
Chambers 10
Burleson 10
Berrian 11
Crayton 11
Stallworth 11
Reggie Williams 11.12
Reggie Brown 11.12
Ginn Jr. 11.12
Kevin Curtis 12.13
Bryant Johnson 13
Anthony Gonzalez 15
Isaac Bruce 15
DJ Hackett 16
Drew Bennett 16
Tight End Round
Witten 3.4
Gates 4
Winslow 5.6
Gonzo 6.7
Cooley 6.7
Clark 6.7
Heap 9
Vernon Davis 9
Shockey 10
Crumpler 12
Heath Miller 13
Scheffler 13
Owen Daniels 15
Donald Lee 15
LJ Smith 16
Greg Olsen 16
Ben Watson 16
McMichael 16
Kevin Boss 16
Zach Miller 16
Leonard Pope 16
Kickers D/ST
Folk SD
Graham CHI
Gostkowski NE
Kaeding MIN
Bironas Seattle
Gould Dallas
Crosby GB
Dawson NYG
Vinatieri PITT
Josh Brown INDY
Rackers TB
Scobee JAX

TEN

BALT

PHI

BUFF