Tuesday, June 12, 2018
All-Yang NBA Teams
If I were to play 1 game next season. Defense assumes player could give it his all on defense which is why Lebron is on it.
All-Yang
1st Curry Harden KD Lebron AD
2nd CP3 RWB Giannis Kawhi Jokic
3rd Dame Oladipo Draymond Jimny Embiid
All-Defense
1st Oladipo Roberson Covington Draymond Gobert
2nd CP3 Dejounte Jimny Kawhi AD
3rd Simmons Pat Bev Lebron Giannis Embiid
All-Offense
1st Harden Steph Lebron KD Jokic
2nd RWB Dame Jimmy Kawhi KAT
3rd CP3 Kemba Giannis PG AD
Thursday, March 23, 2017
Favorite Websites and Articles
https://www.pinnacle.com/en/
inpredictable.com
gambletron2000.com
http://www.espn.com/nba/statistics/rpm/_/sort/RPM
http://grantland.com/features/nba-dleague-rgv-vipers-houston-rockets-future-of-basketball/
https://www.footballoutsiders.com/
Friday, February 3, 2017
Identifying Overrated and Underrated NBA Players with the Help of Real Plus-Minus and Plus-Minus
As the NFL season comes to an end, my attention shifts to the NBA playoff race. My favorite statistic to look at is real plus-minus and plus-minus on-off per 100 possessions. My favorite commentator is legendary basketball gambler Haralabos Voulgaris, who tweets regularly about the NBA.
Introduction to Plus-Minus Statistics
Real plus-minus (RPM) can be found at http://www.espn.com/nba/statistics/rpm/_/sort/RPM and is an adjusted plus-minus which accounts for the quality of the players around a player. The site also shows a player's contributions on each end of the court through his offensive RPM (ORPM) and defensive RPM (DRPM). I assume this adjusts for the players around you through a relatively simple regression. Harrison Barnes really wishes only plus-minus existed on the internet, because as a starter on Golden State's 73-9 team last year he had a staggering plus-minus of +10.2 per 100 possessions. His real plus minus though? A mediocre -1.28.
While I primarily look at real plus-minus, I also like to look at how much better a team is with a player on the court versus off the court as a sanity check. For this statistic I typically go to basketball-reference.com. Typically this number is close to real plus-minus. For example, Harrison Barnes' plus minus on-off per 100 possessions in 2016 was -1.9.
Caveats to RPM and +/- On-Off
While RPM is my favorite statistic, taking RPM as an exact indicator of how valuable a player is or what player you would rather have to start a team is a stretch. Some caveats:
Introduction to Plus-Minus Statistics
Real plus-minus (RPM) can be found at http://www.espn.com/nba/statistics/rpm/_/sort/RPM and is an adjusted plus-minus which accounts for the quality of the players around a player. The site also shows a player's contributions on each end of the court through his offensive RPM (ORPM) and defensive RPM (DRPM). I assume this adjusts for the players around you through a relatively simple regression. Harrison Barnes really wishes only plus-minus existed on the internet, because as a starter on Golden State's 73-9 team last year he had a staggering plus-minus of +10.2 per 100 possessions. His real plus minus though? A mediocre -1.28.
While I primarily look at real plus-minus, I also like to look at how much better a team is with a player on the court versus off the court as a sanity check. For this statistic I typically go to basketball-reference.com. Typically this number is close to real plus-minus. For example, Harrison Barnes' plus minus on-off per 100 possessions in 2016 was -1.9.
Caveats to RPM and +/- On-Off
While RPM is my favorite statistic, taking RPM as an exact indicator of how valuable a player is or what player you would rather have to start a team is a stretch. Some caveats:
- For low minute players, sample size can be a concern.
- For high usage players, it's important to note that their efficiency may be compromised by the burden they have to carry for their team. It has to be a lot easier to play at 100% effort if you play 10 minutes a game than if you play 35 minutes a game.
- Some players are put in a better system that allows them to maximize their strengths while hiding their weaknesses. If Steve Kerr told Stephen Curry to guard the 5, his DRPM would suffer. Therefor for some players, a high RPM may be in large part a reflection of their coaching and system rather than their all-around basketball ability.
- These statistics are not clutch-weighted. While the existence of clutch is debated in the analytics community, I personally think it has merit. I think the public over-weights this by a LOT though.
I'm sure there are other caveats as well but I believe those are the major ones.
Overrated Players
Now it's time for me to hate on some players that I believe are overrated in the eyes of most fans. One-dimensional scorers and bad defensive players are common themes for overrated players.
1. Demar Derozan
He averages 28 points per game and plays on an excellent Toronto team, so most people think Demar Derozan is deserving of his all-star starter status. I feel differently. This is probably Derozan's best season so far, and yet he still has an RPM of -0.05. Last year his RPM was -0.14. His on-off +/- statistics are even worse. This year the Raptors are actually 5.8 points per 100 possessions better when he is off the court versus on the court, and last year the Raptors were 6.1 points better.
Derozan scores 28 points per game but is overrated as an offensive player. He has an okay 55% true shooting percentage despite shooting a heavy dose of mid-range jumpers because he gets to the line frequently. Derozan's OPRM statistics are good but not great, as he has a +2.23 ORPM this year after a +2.33 ORPM last year. However, his contributions on offense don't compare to the other top scorers. Harden (leads the league with a +7.01 ORPM) and Curry (led league with a +7.65 ORPM last year) both sport 60% true shooting percentages and Kevin Durant has an amazing 65% true shooting percentage. Top scorer Russell Westbrook has a 55% TS% but contributes much more as a passer than Derozan.
The bigger problem with Derozan is his consistently poor defense. This makes no sense as Derozan had a 6'7" frame and possesses ridiculous athleticism. I am guessing that this is from a combination of poor coaching and poor effort. His DRPM (defensive RPM) is -2.28 this year and was -2.47 last year. This is over a point worse than the much maligned Harden.
While Derozan is an extremely high usage rate player that contributes offensively, I doubt he is deserving of his contract or all-star spot.
2. Isaiah Thomas
Unlike Derozan, IT is a positive player this year but the MVP hype seems to be getting out of hand. IT is an excellent player and deserving of an all-star spot given his clutch scoring and overall offensive ability. There is really nothing bad to say about his offense, as he scores 30 ppg with a 63% TS% despite a 34% usage rate. This year he ranks 3rd in ORPM at +5.94 behind Harden and Westbrook.
IT's defense is why I cannot include him with my top 5 point guards Harden, Westbrook, Curry, CP3, and Lowry. He has by far the worst DRPM in the NBA this year -4.44 which is over a point worse than the next worst guy (441 players are ranked). He is 5'9" so this is somewhat understandable, but this cannot be overlooked and I rarely hear this mentioned. So despite a +5.94 ORPM, his RPM is only +1.50. While I believe this is an aberration because he has been positive throughout his career, IT on-off +/- this year is actually -1.0.
I like IT so I hope his defense improves or Brad Stevens is simply giving IT challenging defensive assignments as some sort of tough love. I think he is far from being a top 5 point guard in the NBA.
3. Kyrie Irving
Kyrie is an incredible scorer and hit one of the greatest shots in the history of the NBA last year to bring the Cavaliers their first NBA championship. He is one of my favorite players to watch and only 24! He might be ready to take the crown of smoothest player in the league away from Dwyane Wade in my opinion. If I were to start a team, there is no doubt that I would offer Kyrie a max contract and pray that he accepted.
I rate Kyrie extremely highly, but I can't buy him as one of the greatest players in the game or a top 5 point guard (again Harden, RWB, Steph, CP3, Lowry). Criticism for Kyrie has always been that he is an excellent 1 on 1 scorer but lacks in other areas. Given his skills he should be elite at pick and roll offense and he has never been a good defender. This year his RPM is +2.28 (+3.51/-1.23 offense/defense split). Last year his RPM was -.60 (+2.08/-2.68) and the year before that his RPM was +3.40 (+4.29/-0.89).
Kyrie is a top player in the league and a great 1 on 1 scorer but is overrated because he is flashy and plays on a high profile team.
Honorable Mentions: Damian Lillard (same story as Kyrie), Andrew Wiggins (worse version of Derozan but so young)
Underrated Players
Efficient scoring and good defense are common themes for underrated players.
1. Chris Paul
Why is nobody making a fuss out of Chris Paul not making the all-star game? This guy has been so good for so long that people seem to think shiny new toys like Damian Lillard are better than one of the greatest players of all time and a consistently top 5 player in the NBA right now. Chris Paul is still running an extremely efficient offense with high assists, low turnovers, and efficient scoring (61% TS% this year). He is one of the best defensive players in the league despite being an undersized guard.
CP3 leads the league with a +9.30 RPM this year (+5.31/+3.99). Last year he had the number 3 RPM in the league (+6.15/+2.44) after ranking number 7 (+6.45/+0.47) and number 2 (+6.03/+1.95) in the two prior years. His career box plus-minus (estimated plus-minus based on box score stats) is a superb +7.6 and he has not gotten worse with age.
Like Tracy McGrady, it is unfair to blame CP3 for never going to the finals. He is an MVP candidate every single year and I enjoy watching his always in control style of play.
2. Kyle Lowry
It is extremely difficult for me to hear people group Lowry with Demar Derozan as if they are similar caliber players. When Derozan was an all-star starter over Lowry, I hardly heard any fans complain about the injustice. After years of being an all-star caliber player, Lowry has broken out in the past 2 years as a top 10 player in the league as an excellent defender, efficient scorer, and somebody that runs one of the best teams in the league.
This year Lowry is shooting about 8 3's a game at 42% and has a 63% TS% scoring 23 points a game. He is 2nd in the league with a +6.79 RPM (+5.88/+0.91) after ranking 7th in the league last year with a +6.82 RPM (+5.12/+0.70). He is poised to have Chris Paul type production for the foreseeable future.
Lowry is one of the top players in the game and unfortunately Toronto is held back by poor coaching that allows Derozan to get the ball too frequently instead of feeding Lowry constantly.
3. Kevin Love
The hate that Kevin Love has gotten from the public since he joined Cleveland is really baffling. Of course he was not going to score 26 points per game like he did in Minnesota. Of course he is not going to transform into some sort of shot blocking machine like Serge Ibaka. However, he is the second best player on the current world champions and his offensive skill set complements Lebron's perfectly. The Melo for Love trade rumors are hilarious and would probably be one of the worst trades of all time if it went through.
In Love's last year in Minnesota, he had an RPM of +5.06 (12th in the league, +3.52/+1.54). There was a major drop off in his first year in Cleveland to a still solid but below expectations +2.71 (+1.75/+0.96). I largely blame this on experimentation and Lebron not quite knowing how to use Kevin Love well. However, the past 2 years Love has rebounded to a top 10-15 player with RPMs arounnd 5 (~3/2 split). Love's movements might not be extremely smooth like his more heralded teammate Kyrie, but he is a plus defender that contributes a lot on the boards and is an ideal stretch 4 for Lebron.
Kevin Love is the second best player on the Cavs, a top 15 player in the NBA, and receives too much criticism. People thinking that Melo would be a better fit for the Cavs puzzle me.
Honorable Mentions: Paul Millsap, Nikola Jokic (this guy could be amazing)
IT's defense is why I cannot include him with my top 5 point guards Harden, Westbrook, Curry, CP3, and Lowry. He has by far the worst DRPM in the NBA this year -4.44 which is over a point worse than the next worst guy (441 players are ranked). He is 5'9" so this is somewhat understandable, but this cannot be overlooked and I rarely hear this mentioned. So despite a +5.94 ORPM, his RPM is only +1.50. While I believe this is an aberration because he has been positive throughout his career, IT on-off +/- this year is actually -1.0.
I like IT so I hope his defense improves or Brad Stevens is simply giving IT challenging defensive assignments as some sort of tough love. I think he is far from being a top 5 point guard in the NBA.
3. Kyrie Irving
Kyrie is an incredible scorer and hit one of the greatest shots in the history of the NBA last year to bring the Cavaliers their first NBA championship. He is one of my favorite players to watch and only 24! He might be ready to take the crown of smoothest player in the league away from Dwyane Wade in my opinion. If I were to start a team, there is no doubt that I would offer Kyrie a max contract and pray that he accepted.
I rate Kyrie extremely highly, but I can't buy him as one of the greatest players in the game or a top 5 point guard (again Harden, RWB, Steph, CP3, Lowry). Criticism for Kyrie has always been that he is an excellent 1 on 1 scorer but lacks in other areas. Given his skills he should be elite at pick and roll offense and he has never been a good defender. This year his RPM is +2.28 (+3.51/-1.23 offense/defense split). Last year his RPM was -.60 (+2.08/-2.68) and the year before that his RPM was +3.40 (+4.29/-0.89).
Kyrie is a top player in the league and a great 1 on 1 scorer but is overrated because he is flashy and plays on a high profile team.
Honorable Mentions: Damian Lillard (same story as Kyrie), Andrew Wiggins (worse version of Derozan but so young)
Underrated Players
Efficient scoring and good defense are common themes for underrated players.
1. Chris Paul
Why is nobody making a fuss out of Chris Paul not making the all-star game? This guy has been so good for so long that people seem to think shiny new toys like Damian Lillard are better than one of the greatest players of all time and a consistently top 5 player in the NBA right now. Chris Paul is still running an extremely efficient offense with high assists, low turnovers, and efficient scoring (61% TS% this year). He is one of the best defensive players in the league despite being an undersized guard.
CP3 leads the league with a +9.30 RPM this year (+5.31/+3.99). Last year he had the number 3 RPM in the league (+6.15/+2.44) after ranking number 7 (+6.45/+0.47) and number 2 (+6.03/+1.95) in the two prior years. His career box plus-minus (estimated plus-minus based on box score stats) is a superb +7.6 and he has not gotten worse with age.
Like Tracy McGrady, it is unfair to blame CP3 for never going to the finals. He is an MVP candidate every single year and I enjoy watching his always in control style of play.
2. Kyle Lowry
It is extremely difficult for me to hear people group Lowry with Demar Derozan as if they are similar caliber players. When Derozan was an all-star starter over Lowry, I hardly heard any fans complain about the injustice. After years of being an all-star caliber player, Lowry has broken out in the past 2 years as a top 10 player in the league as an excellent defender, efficient scorer, and somebody that runs one of the best teams in the league.
This year Lowry is shooting about 8 3's a game at 42% and has a 63% TS% scoring 23 points a game. He is 2nd in the league with a +6.79 RPM (+5.88/+0.91) after ranking 7th in the league last year with a +6.82 RPM (+5.12/+0.70). He is poised to have Chris Paul type production for the foreseeable future.
Lowry is one of the top players in the game and unfortunately Toronto is held back by poor coaching that allows Derozan to get the ball too frequently instead of feeding Lowry constantly.
3. Kevin Love
The hate that Kevin Love has gotten from the public since he joined Cleveland is really baffling. Of course he was not going to score 26 points per game like he did in Minnesota. Of course he is not going to transform into some sort of shot blocking machine like Serge Ibaka. However, he is the second best player on the current world champions and his offensive skill set complements Lebron's perfectly. The Melo for Love trade rumors are hilarious and would probably be one of the worst trades of all time if it went through.
In Love's last year in Minnesota, he had an RPM of +5.06 (12th in the league, +3.52/+1.54). There was a major drop off in his first year in Cleveland to a still solid but below expectations +2.71 (+1.75/+0.96). I largely blame this on experimentation and Lebron not quite knowing how to use Kevin Love well. However, the past 2 years Love has rebounded to a top 10-15 player with RPMs arounnd 5 (~3/2 split). Love's movements might not be extremely smooth like his more heralded teammate Kyrie, but he is a plus defender that contributes a lot on the boards and is an ideal stretch 4 for Lebron.
Kevin Love is the second best player on the Cavs, a top 15 player in the NBA, and receives too much criticism. People thinking that Melo would be a better fit for the Cavs puzzle me.
Honorable Mentions: Paul Millsap, Nikola Jokic (this guy could be amazing)
Saturday, December 26, 2015
Introducing Inpredictable
Which team is the best team in the NFL right now? Nobody really knows. You might have an opinion or you may think a certain team is most likely the best team, but it's really just a guess. Today I introduce my favorite website that provides information about which teams are probably best in the NBA, NFL, NCAAF, NCAAB, and MLB. It's called inpredictable, and http://stats.inpredictable.com/rankings/nfl.php might be my most frequented web page.
When MSU knocked off Michigan due to a last second blocked punt touchdown return, MSU was ranked ahead of Michigan in pretty much every ranking. If that blocked punt touchdown return had not occurred, Michigan would have ranked ahead of MSU in pretty much every ranking. While the play should definitely have some impact, I don't think it should be that much. If the two teams played again, I don't think the result of that play should move the betting line more than a half a point.
Inpredictable has a formulaic way of determining their power rankings by using point spreads. Many people believe point spreads are only the result of bookmakers balancing order flow, and so this makes them inaccurate. Meanwhile, I find that is the reason why they are more accurate than anything else. It's not a vote; it's a market. If someone thinks the market is way off, they can bet a large amount of money to move it back. While sometimes dumb bettors can have a large enough impact to move the market substantially, I am pretty sure this is very rarely the case. Betting in major sports is a liquid enough market and there are lots of sharps willing to bet large amounts of money in case a line looks off. In addition, bookmakers take positions if something looks off. They often carry substantial amounts of risks through sporting events.
Inpredictable uses betting lines to rank teams by "GPF," which is defined as how many points that team would be favored by against an average team on a neutral field. They use a weighted average of point spreads and adjusted point spreads, weighting more recent games much more heavily. Historical point spreads are adjusted by the actual result spread times a coefficient which differs based on the sport. More details can be found on http://www.inpredictable.com/p/methodology.html.
The one area where these rankings can fail is when teams are dealing with major injuries. Because inpredictable does use historical point spreads, they are probably overrating a team that has had a major injury recently and underrating a team that has a major player coming back from injury. I find these situations not frequent enough to prevent inpredictable from being an excellent resource. It provides rankings without cognitive biases.
Most fans would be shocked at the inpredictable rankings because most fans think too similarly to the ESPN power rankings contributors. Today on 12/26/15, I present you with the following inpredictable statistics.
- Iowa has a GPF of 12.8, good for #22 in the country. This clashes highly from any power rankings you can find. They were ranked the #5 team by college football playoff committee.
- Seattle has by far the highest GPF in the NFL at 10.0. Carolina, the undefeated team, is just ahead of #5 team New England and sits at #4 with a GPF of 5.9. I expect the Patriots to rise as the team gets key contributors back from injury in the postseason. If Seattle and Carolina played on a neutral field, Seattle would probably be favored by around 4 points.
It's a cool site so I encourage any sports fan to check it out. It has other interesting statistics in addition to GPF, including playoff probabilities.
Sunday, August 16, 2009
Quarterbacks Draft Preview
This year's quarterback crop is full of uncertainties, from players coming back from injury (Brady, Palmer, Hasselbeck), players moving to different teams (Cassel, Cutler, Orton, Favre), and players that are always question marks (Schaub, Eli Manning). For that reason, there should be more major surprises as well as more major disappointments this fantasy football season.
I believe the top 5 quarterbacks are close, and there are a bunch of other QBs who could easily become top 5 QBs this year. For that reason, the draft strategy for quarterbacks is pretty clear: WAIT after Brady, Brees, and Manning go.
Here are my QB rankings for the upcoming fantasy season:
TIER 1
1) Tom Brady
Pros: The knee looked great in the first preseason game, and no QB has a higher ceiling than Brady (not even up for debate). In his first season throwing to Moss and Welker he threw 50 TDs compared to 8 picks and 4806 yards.
Cons: The injury risk is definitely a concern, and there may be some rustiness in the first month or so of the season. Some worry that he'll be distracted by Gisele and married life (Gisele...wow). Be careful not to overvalue him and draft him in the first two rounds, as he is unlikely to throw 40+ touchdowns again.
Bottom Line: Brady is one of the all-time greatest quarterbacks, and one of the most competitive quarterbacks of all-time. He won't be scared of contact and he'll be doing everything he can to prove the Giant's Super Bowl victory was a fluke. It’s time to show the world that Brady and the Patriots are back and ready to continue their run as the greatest team of the decade. I would be willing to take a risk on him early in the third round.
2) Drew Brees
Pros: Brees airs it out every game no matter who is injured on the Saints. If Reggie Bush and Marques Colston can stay healthy for the whole season, Brees should easily throw 30+ TDs this season.
Cons: The Saints D allowed the 6th most points in the NFL last year. If they become a better defensive team this year, Brees could be involved in less shootouts.
Bottom Line: Brees has little downside and is a safe bet to be a top 5 quarterback this coming year. He could easily be taken ahead of Brady even though he has less upside than him.
3) Peyton Manning
Pros: Manning is consistently great every season, excluding one season which was beyond great. How consistent is he? Here are his passing TD totals over his career: 26, 26, 33, 26, 27, 29, 49, 28, 31, 31, and 27. Oh, and he’s never missed a game in his 11 seasons. Peyton has proven that he doesn’t need a healthy and/or effective Marvin Harrison the past two years. Last year, he proved that he can overcome injury and be effective despite an unhealthy Joseph Addai and a struggling offensive line. Addai should be healthier this year, and if he struggles Donald Brown looks like a capable back.
Cons: When a new coach arrives, there is a level of uncertainty as to how his new team will respond. This is especially true when replacing a coach of Tony Dungy’s caliber. Manning also has less upside than Brady or Brees.
Bottom Line: Manning is a near lock for 4000 yards and 25+ TDs, and has less downside than Brady or Brees. Reaching for Manning late in the third round could pay off, as the security Manning offers deserves a premium.
4) Phillip Rivers
Pros: 105.5 QB rating, 34 TDs, 11 INTs, 4009 yards, 65.3 comp %, 8.4 Y/A. Rivers was broke out last year as the Chargers became a passing team due to a struggling and unhealthy LT. Rivers has his full arsenal of weapons again this year plus a healthier Gates and healthier LT.
Cons: If LT is effective and healthy this year, Rivers’ attempts could be cut way down, along with his passing TDs. He also doesn’t have the track record of a Manning, Brees, or Brady.
Bottom Line: Rivers could end up having the same value as the top 3 QBs, but should not be drafted with the top 3 QBs.
5) Aaron Rodgers
Pros: In Rodgers’ first season as a starter, he threw 28 TDs versus 13 INTs, rushed for 207 yards and 4 scores, and threw over 4000 yards. Rodgers still has room to grow, and offers tantalizing upside throwing to Greg Jennings and Donald Driver.
Cons: While a Rodgers has more upside because he is younger and still learning, he also has more downside because he is less proven.
Bottom Line: Rodgers should be good for 25+ TDs this year, provided his offense remains healthy. He should be drafted near Rivers.
TIER 2
6) Kurt Warner
Pros: The Cardinals are a pass heavy team, finishing 2nd in the league in passing and last in the league in rushing. Boldin, Fitzgerald, and Breaston are back and motivated to return to the Super Bowl.
Cons: If you draft Warner, handcuffing Leinart is a must. Warner is 38 years old and has an injury history, including a replaced hip. He also will turn the ball over, both with interceptions and fumbles. Warner has fumbled 12 and 11 times in the past two years (losing 7 and 6), respectively. He has negative 2 yards rushing last year.
Bottom Line: Warner has just as much upside as the top 5 QBs, but has considerably more downside. Last year he was undervalued, but this year he is overvalued.
7) Tony Romo
Pros: In his 3 seasons as a starter, numbers have not been a problem for Romo. He has been a yardage and TD monster, and has been efficient with a 94.7 QB rating, 63.6 completion percentage, and 8.1 Y/A for his career. Marion Barber played through injury all last year and should be healthier to help the Cowboys’ offense this year, and Roy Williams looks ready to be the #1 receiver, reportedly trimming 10-15 pounds in the offseason. Romo also showed his toughness last year by playing injured last year.
Cons: When T.O. has left teams in the past, his former QB’s stats have suffered considerably. Romo also faces the intense pressure of expectations in Dallas. Plus, I would be pretty crushed if I broke up with Jessica Simpson.
Bottom Line: When T.O. left San Francisco and Philadelphia, those teams did not have a receiver the caliber of Roy Williams ready to take over the role of #1 wideout or a tight end like Jason Witten. Romo still has plenty of weapons and offers considerable upside.
TIER 3
8) Donovan McNabb
Pros: McNabb will have his best receiving corps since T.O. this year, with Desean Jackson entering his 2nd year, Kevin Curtis healthy, rookie Jeremy Maclin, and Reggie Brown. McNabb has never thrown a lot of INTs, and is an experienced player.
Cons: McNabb has a history of injuries, and could easily go down this season as well. In addition, Brian Westbrook, another fragile player, is not getting any younger, and if he gets hurt the Eagles offense will become a question mark. Lastly, the whole Michael Vick experiment (Wildcat, McNabb and Vick both playing at the same time) seems a bit risky.
Bottom Line: McNabb has potential this year with Jackson, Curtis, and Maclin. He also has his share of risks. I would avoid drafting him if it’s possible to wait and pick up a similar QB.
9) Matt Schaub
Pros: Houston threw for the 4th most yards in the league last year and boasts Andre Johnson and Kevin Walter. Steve Slaton is also excellent catching the ball out of the backfield. Upside upside upside.
Cons: Schaub can’t seem to stay on the field. Not only that, but he has been inconsistent when on the field.
Bottom Line: Schaub is one of the biggest gambles in the draft, offering the potential to be a top 5 QB or a player who you keep injured on your bench. If you think you can draft a good #2 QB later in the draft, feel free to draft Schaub ahead of Romo.
10) Carson Palmer
Pros: He says he’s healthy, and Coles should fill the hole left by Housh. Palmer will be airing it out this year, and could return to the 30 touchdown area. Cincinnati could find themselves in a lot of shootout games this year.
Cons: Even when he was healthy, Palmer struggled in 2007 when he threw 20 INTs. He still has a lot to prove as a top tier NFL quarterback, and won’t have the running game that he had with Rudi Johnson a few years ago. Is Ocho Cinco as good a player as before he changed his name?
Bottom Line: Palmer is a risky pick, but he has shown the ability to throw 30 TDs, and still has weapons. Draft him if you want to take a risk, but be ready to draft another QB soon after.
11) Matt Ryan
Pros: Ryan showed he has the ability to become one of the game’s best QBs in his rookie season. He wasn’t a dink and donk specialist, as demonstrated by his 7.9 Y/A. Now he has Tony Gonzalez, and young QBs love tight ends.
Cons: Atlanta ran the ball 35 times a game last year, so Ryan is clearly passing in a run-first offense. Will Atlanta pass more this year, and if they do, will Ryan be ready for it in his second year in the league?
Bottom Line: Ryan has upside, unlike many quarterbacks in a run first offense that simply dink and donk (e.g. Eli Manning, Brett Favre last year, Joe Flacco, Kerry Collins). However, it’s exciting to pick the young star in drafts, and somebody is going to reach for him. Don’t be that person.
12) Ben Roethlisberger
Pros: being an overrated manage-the-game quarterback earlier in his career, he has much more freedom now. This was mainly due to an atrocious offensive line and an extremely difficult schedule, two things that have to be better this year. Santonio Holmes looks ready to break out.
Cons: Big Ben always seems to be hurt and injuries have hurt his performance. Despite the Super Bowl performance, don’t forget that Roethlisberger had a horrible regular season last year, with just 17 passing TDs, 15 INTs, and 14 fumbles, 7 of which were lost. He has never passed for a lot of yards in his career, including last year when he averaged only 206 yards of passing a game.
Bottom Line: Big Ben is a solid pick as a trustworthy #2 QB, but doesn’t have the upside of the quarterbacks above and is a major injury risk.
13) Matt Hasselbeck
Pros: Hasselbeck showed what he can do without an effective Shaun Alexander 2 years ago by throwing for 28 TDs versus 12 INTs and almost 3966 yards. This year, he will be throwing to T.J. Houshmandzadeh to go with Nate Burleson and Deion Branch. He’ll also be throwing at division foes St. Louis, San Francisco, and Arizona.
Cons: When Hasselbeck did play last year, it wasn’t pretty. Even if he is healthy this year, he’s not a guarantee to be a 25+ TD quarterback, a mark he has accomplished only twice in his career. If he’s ineffective, Seneca Wallace is ready to take over.
Bottom Line: Hasselbeck is a risky pick, but is his upside in the later rounds far outweighs his downside. He could be a top 5 QB.
14) Jay Cutler
Pros: Cutler is going to be extremely motivated to stick it to Josh McDaniels, and certainly has the arm to do it. He is entering just his 4th season in the league, and threw for 4500+ yards last year. He also has run for 200 yards 2 years in a row.
Cons: Cutler will go from throwing to Brandon Marshall and Eddie Royal to…who? Devin Hester? It’s doubtful Cutler will approach 4000 yards passing with his most proven receivers are tight ends Greg Olsen and Desmond Clark. The Bears offense will be running the ball with Matt Forte much more than throwing bullets down field with Cutler.
Bottom Line: If Cutler was still in Denver, he could potentially be a top 5 QB pick. His talent is undeniable, and Cutler might make stars out of some unproven receivers in Chicago. Cutler should make for a solid QB2, but nothing more.
15) Matt Cassel
Pros: After struggling in the first third of the season, Cassel emerged as one of fantasy’s best QBs down the stretch. Despite not starting a game since high school, passed for almost 3700 yards, 21 TDs and 11 INTs. He’s also an underrated runner, and his 2 rushing TDs and 270 rushing yards provided a nice boost to his fantasy stats. He showed poise and accuracy while throwing 7 games with a 100+ QB rating last year. With continued development, Cassel could emerge as one of the league’s best QBs. The arrival of Todd Haley and a huge contract will mean KC is going to pass frequently this season.
Cons: Cassel’s most obvious con is that he was in New England last year, and although Dwayne Bowe is good, there are few other options in Kansas City. Cassel has reportedly been struggling during camp, and if he’s ineffective Brodie Croyle could run away with the QB job.
Bottom Line: Cassel is still unproven, but he certainly showed some skills last year that cannot simply be attributed to being in New England. He’s a risky pick who could become a QB1 or an ineffective QB in the free agent pool.
16) David Garrard
Pros: Fred Taylor left, and Torry Holt arrived in the offseason. MJD has never had 200 carries in a season, so it makes sense to think Garrard should be passing a lot this season and may eclipse his 3620 yards last season. His 2 rushing TDs and 322 rushing yards last year were very important for fantasy purposes.
Cons: Garrard has a solid floor, but he has never thrown for 20 TDs and that may be his upside. The Jacksonville offense will be based on MJD’s running.
Bottom Line: Garrard is a reliable #2 QB. He shouldn’t be any better or worse than that.
17) Trent Edwards
Pros: Entering his 3rd year, Edwards has room to grow. He certainly has toys to play with, as T.O. and Lee Evans could make one of the best tandems in the league.
Cons: Edwards is raw and Buffalo’s O-line is a major question mark. Young QBs and bad O-lines are not a pretty combination. Buffalo may not have a running game to back Edwards up, as Marshawn Lynch is a question mark and suspended for the first 3 games. T.O. could also cause headaches.
Bottom Line: Draft with fear, but T.O. has always made his QBs more successful in his first season with a new team.
18) Kyle Orton
Pros: Brandon Marshall is a stud and Eddie Royal seems to be a stud entering his 2nd year. Orton has never had a chance to throw to receivers of this caliber, and could produce a Cassel-like season under Josh McDaniel’s tutelage.
Cons: Orton is unproven and played in a run first system in Chicago. Last year he had an Eli Manning-like 58.5 completion percentage and 6.4 Y/A. At least 1 INT a game is likely as well.
Bottom Line: Orton may prove to be a decent QB2 by throwing it up there for Eddie Royal and Brandon Marshall. We don’t really know what he has to offer; Orton is one of the drafts mysteries.
Best of the Rest
19) Brett Favre
Bottom Line: Favre is again on a run first team, and is likely to do more dink and donking. His health problems last year may not have been as worrisome as his decision-making problems. Still, he is a hall of fame QB, so if he finds some of his old magic could become a reliable QB2.
20) Eli Manning
Bottom Line: Despite being the NFL’s highest paid player (gag), Eli is inaccurate down the field and relies on the Giants’ running game and throwing checkdown passes. In the past, he’d be able to accomplish some big gains by lobbing it to Plax, but now Plax is gone. Brady made it work with Reche Caldwell and Jabar Gaffney as his top 2 receivers, but to think Eli is capable of doing that would be foolish. Still, the Giants figure to move the ball with their great running game, and Eli may ride that running game to some offensive success as he has in the past.
21) Jake Delhomme
Bottom Line: Delhomme is extremely unreliable, but his heaves down field often find their way into Steve Smith’s hands. Delhomme is a high variance player and is more the hander offer than the thrower in Carolina’s offense, but he does have the potential to ride the amazing Smith.
22) Marc Bulger
Bottom Line: Bulger has completely collapsed the past couple seasons. If SJax goes down again, Bulger should be dropped immediately.
23) Shaun Hill
Bottom Line: If he wins the starting job over Alex Smith, consider that his 13 TDs and 115 rushing yards were over only 9 games.
24) Brady Quinn
Bottom Line: Braylon Edwards will need to come back with a vengeance in order for Quinn to have success, and even that may not be enough for Quinn to post good numbers this season. Derek Anderson could easily steal the job from Quinn in the preseason and just as easily take over the job in the regular season.
25) Jamarcus Russell
Bottom Line: Who knows? He has the talent.
26) Matt Leinart
Bottom Line: If Warner gets hurt, Leinart will inherit Arizona’s weapons.
27) Chad Pennington
Bottom Line: Game manager Pennington has absolutely zero fantasy upside. His okay numbers last year will even be hard to repeat.
28) Joe Flacco
Bottom Line: Despite the media’s adoration, Joe Flacco has an Eli Manning role for Baltimore and is quite raw
29) It really shouldn’t matter
I believe the top 5 quarterbacks are close, and there are a bunch of other QBs who could easily become top 5 QBs this year. For that reason, the draft strategy for quarterbacks is pretty clear: WAIT after Brady, Brees, and Manning go.
Here are my QB rankings for the upcoming fantasy season:
TIER 1
1) Tom Brady
Pros: The knee looked great in the first preseason game, and no QB has a higher ceiling than Brady (not even up for debate). In his first season throwing to Moss and Welker he threw 50 TDs compared to 8 picks and 4806 yards.
Cons: The injury risk is definitely a concern, and there may be some rustiness in the first month or so of the season. Some worry that he'll be distracted by Gisele and married life (Gisele...wow). Be careful not to overvalue him and draft him in the first two rounds, as he is unlikely to throw 40+ touchdowns again.
Bottom Line: Brady is one of the all-time greatest quarterbacks, and one of the most competitive quarterbacks of all-time. He won't be scared of contact and he'll be doing everything he can to prove the Giant's Super Bowl victory was a fluke. It’s time to show the world that Brady and the Patriots are back and ready to continue their run as the greatest team of the decade. I would be willing to take a risk on him early in the third round.
2) Drew Brees
Pros: Brees airs it out every game no matter who is injured on the Saints. If Reggie Bush and Marques Colston can stay healthy for the whole season, Brees should easily throw 30+ TDs this season.
Cons: The Saints D allowed the 6th most points in the NFL last year. If they become a better defensive team this year, Brees could be involved in less shootouts.
Bottom Line: Brees has little downside and is a safe bet to be a top 5 quarterback this coming year. He could easily be taken ahead of Brady even though he has less upside than him.
3) Peyton Manning
Pros: Manning is consistently great every season, excluding one season which was beyond great. How consistent is he? Here are his passing TD totals over his career: 26, 26, 33, 26, 27, 29, 49, 28, 31, 31, and 27. Oh, and he’s never missed a game in his 11 seasons. Peyton has proven that he doesn’t need a healthy and/or effective Marvin Harrison the past two years. Last year, he proved that he can overcome injury and be effective despite an unhealthy Joseph Addai and a struggling offensive line. Addai should be healthier this year, and if he struggles Donald Brown looks like a capable back.
Cons: When a new coach arrives, there is a level of uncertainty as to how his new team will respond. This is especially true when replacing a coach of Tony Dungy’s caliber. Manning also has less upside than Brady or Brees.
Bottom Line: Manning is a near lock for 4000 yards and 25+ TDs, and has less downside than Brady or Brees. Reaching for Manning late in the third round could pay off, as the security Manning offers deserves a premium.
4) Phillip Rivers
Pros: 105.5 QB rating, 34 TDs, 11 INTs, 4009 yards, 65.3 comp %, 8.4 Y/A. Rivers was broke out last year as the Chargers became a passing team due to a struggling and unhealthy LT. Rivers has his full arsenal of weapons again this year plus a healthier Gates and healthier LT.
Cons: If LT is effective and healthy this year, Rivers’ attempts could be cut way down, along with his passing TDs. He also doesn’t have the track record of a Manning, Brees, or Brady.
Bottom Line: Rivers could end up having the same value as the top 3 QBs, but should not be drafted with the top 3 QBs.
5) Aaron Rodgers
Pros: In Rodgers’ first season as a starter, he threw 28 TDs versus 13 INTs, rushed for 207 yards and 4 scores, and threw over 4000 yards. Rodgers still has room to grow, and offers tantalizing upside throwing to Greg Jennings and Donald Driver.
Cons: While a Rodgers has more upside because he is younger and still learning, he also has more downside because he is less proven.
Bottom Line: Rodgers should be good for 25+ TDs this year, provided his offense remains healthy. He should be drafted near Rivers.
TIER 2
6) Kurt Warner
Pros: The Cardinals are a pass heavy team, finishing 2nd in the league in passing and last in the league in rushing. Boldin, Fitzgerald, and Breaston are back and motivated to return to the Super Bowl.
Cons: If you draft Warner, handcuffing Leinart is a must. Warner is 38 years old and has an injury history, including a replaced hip. He also will turn the ball over, both with interceptions and fumbles. Warner has fumbled 12 and 11 times in the past two years (losing 7 and 6), respectively. He has negative 2 yards rushing last year.
Bottom Line: Warner has just as much upside as the top 5 QBs, but has considerably more downside. Last year he was undervalued, but this year he is overvalued.
7) Tony Romo
Pros: In his 3 seasons as a starter, numbers have not been a problem for Romo. He has been a yardage and TD monster, and has been efficient with a 94.7 QB rating, 63.6 completion percentage, and 8.1 Y/A for his career. Marion Barber played through injury all last year and should be healthier to help the Cowboys’ offense this year, and Roy Williams looks ready to be the #1 receiver, reportedly trimming 10-15 pounds in the offseason. Romo also showed his toughness last year by playing injured last year.
Cons: When T.O. has left teams in the past, his former QB’s stats have suffered considerably. Romo also faces the intense pressure of expectations in Dallas. Plus, I would be pretty crushed if I broke up with Jessica Simpson.
Bottom Line: When T.O. left San Francisco and Philadelphia, those teams did not have a receiver the caliber of Roy Williams ready to take over the role of #1 wideout or a tight end like Jason Witten. Romo still has plenty of weapons and offers considerable upside.
TIER 3
8) Donovan McNabb
Pros: McNabb will have his best receiving corps since T.O. this year, with Desean Jackson entering his 2nd year, Kevin Curtis healthy, rookie Jeremy Maclin, and Reggie Brown. McNabb has never thrown a lot of INTs, and is an experienced player.
Cons: McNabb has a history of injuries, and could easily go down this season as well. In addition, Brian Westbrook, another fragile player, is not getting any younger, and if he gets hurt the Eagles offense will become a question mark. Lastly, the whole Michael Vick experiment (Wildcat, McNabb and Vick both playing at the same time) seems a bit risky.
Bottom Line: McNabb has potential this year with Jackson, Curtis, and Maclin. He also has his share of risks. I would avoid drafting him if it’s possible to wait and pick up a similar QB.
9) Matt Schaub
Pros: Houston threw for the 4th most yards in the league last year and boasts Andre Johnson and Kevin Walter. Steve Slaton is also excellent catching the ball out of the backfield. Upside upside upside.
Cons: Schaub can’t seem to stay on the field. Not only that, but he has been inconsistent when on the field.
Bottom Line: Schaub is one of the biggest gambles in the draft, offering the potential to be a top 5 QB or a player who you keep injured on your bench. If you think you can draft a good #2 QB later in the draft, feel free to draft Schaub ahead of Romo.
10) Carson Palmer
Pros: He says he’s healthy, and Coles should fill the hole left by Housh. Palmer will be airing it out this year, and could return to the 30 touchdown area. Cincinnati could find themselves in a lot of shootout games this year.
Cons: Even when he was healthy, Palmer struggled in 2007 when he threw 20 INTs. He still has a lot to prove as a top tier NFL quarterback, and won’t have the running game that he had with Rudi Johnson a few years ago. Is Ocho Cinco as good a player as before he changed his name?
Bottom Line: Palmer is a risky pick, but he has shown the ability to throw 30 TDs, and still has weapons. Draft him if you want to take a risk, but be ready to draft another QB soon after.
11) Matt Ryan
Pros: Ryan showed he has the ability to become one of the game’s best QBs in his rookie season. He wasn’t a dink and donk specialist, as demonstrated by his 7.9 Y/A. Now he has Tony Gonzalez, and young QBs love tight ends.
Cons: Atlanta ran the ball 35 times a game last year, so Ryan is clearly passing in a run-first offense. Will Atlanta pass more this year, and if they do, will Ryan be ready for it in his second year in the league?
Bottom Line: Ryan has upside, unlike many quarterbacks in a run first offense that simply dink and donk (e.g. Eli Manning, Brett Favre last year, Joe Flacco, Kerry Collins). However, it’s exciting to pick the young star in drafts, and somebody is going to reach for him. Don’t be that person.
12) Ben Roethlisberger
Pros: being an overrated manage-the-game quarterback earlier in his career, he has much more freedom now. This was mainly due to an atrocious offensive line and an extremely difficult schedule, two things that have to be better this year. Santonio Holmes looks ready to break out.
Cons: Big Ben always seems to be hurt and injuries have hurt his performance. Despite the Super Bowl performance, don’t forget that Roethlisberger had a horrible regular season last year, with just 17 passing TDs, 15 INTs, and 14 fumbles, 7 of which were lost. He has never passed for a lot of yards in his career, including last year when he averaged only 206 yards of passing a game.
Bottom Line: Big Ben is a solid pick as a trustworthy #2 QB, but doesn’t have the upside of the quarterbacks above and is a major injury risk.
13) Matt Hasselbeck
Pros: Hasselbeck showed what he can do without an effective Shaun Alexander 2 years ago by throwing for 28 TDs versus 12 INTs and almost 3966 yards. This year, he will be throwing to T.J. Houshmandzadeh to go with Nate Burleson and Deion Branch. He’ll also be throwing at division foes St. Louis, San Francisco, and Arizona.
Cons: When Hasselbeck did play last year, it wasn’t pretty. Even if he is healthy this year, he’s not a guarantee to be a 25+ TD quarterback, a mark he has accomplished only twice in his career. If he’s ineffective, Seneca Wallace is ready to take over.
Bottom Line: Hasselbeck is a risky pick, but is his upside in the later rounds far outweighs his downside. He could be a top 5 QB.
14) Jay Cutler
Pros: Cutler is going to be extremely motivated to stick it to Josh McDaniels, and certainly has the arm to do it. He is entering just his 4th season in the league, and threw for 4500+ yards last year. He also has run for 200 yards 2 years in a row.
Cons: Cutler will go from throwing to Brandon Marshall and Eddie Royal to…who? Devin Hester? It’s doubtful Cutler will approach 4000 yards passing with his most proven receivers are tight ends Greg Olsen and Desmond Clark. The Bears offense will be running the ball with Matt Forte much more than throwing bullets down field with Cutler.
Bottom Line: If Cutler was still in Denver, he could potentially be a top 5 QB pick. His talent is undeniable, and Cutler might make stars out of some unproven receivers in Chicago. Cutler should make for a solid QB2, but nothing more.
15) Matt Cassel
Pros: After struggling in the first third of the season, Cassel emerged as one of fantasy’s best QBs down the stretch. Despite not starting a game since high school, passed for almost 3700 yards, 21 TDs and 11 INTs. He’s also an underrated runner, and his 2 rushing TDs and 270 rushing yards provided a nice boost to his fantasy stats. He showed poise and accuracy while throwing 7 games with a 100+ QB rating last year. With continued development, Cassel could emerge as one of the league’s best QBs. The arrival of Todd Haley and a huge contract will mean KC is going to pass frequently this season.
Cons: Cassel’s most obvious con is that he was in New England last year, and although Dwayne Bowe is good, there are few other options in Kansas City. Cassel has reportedly been struggling during camp, and if he’s ineffective Brodie Croyle could run away with the QB job.
Bottom Line: Cassel is still unproven, but he certainly showed some skills last year that cannot simply be attributed to being in New England. He’s a risky pick who could become a QB1 or an ineffective QB in the free agent pool.
16) David Garrard
Pros: Fred Taylor left, and Torry Holt arrived in the offseason. MJD has never had 200 carries in a season, so it makes sense to think Garrard should be passing a lot this season and may eclipse his 3620 yards last season. His 2 rushing TDs and 322 rushing yards last year were very important for fantasy purposes.
Cons: Garrard has a solid floor, but he has never thrown for 20 TDs and that may be his upside. The Jacksonville offense will be based on MJD’s running.
Bottom Line: Garrard is a reliable #2 QB. He shouldn’t be any better or worse than that.
17) Trent Edwards
Pros: Entering his 3rd year, Edwards has room to grow. He certainly has toys to play with, as T.O. and Lee Evans could make one of the best tandems in the league.
Cons: Edwards is raw and Buffalo’s O-line is a major question mark. Young QBs and bad O-lines are not a pretty combination. Buffalo may not have a running game to back Edwards up, as Marshawn Lynch is a question mark and suspended for the first 3 games. T.O. could also cause headaches.
Bottom Line: Draft with fear, but T.O. has always made his QBs more successful in his first season with a new team.
18) Kyle Orton
Pros: Brandon Marshall is a stud and Eddie Royal seems to be a stud entering his 2nd year. Orton has never had a chance to throw to receivers of this caliber, and could produce a Cassel-like season under Josh McDaniel’s tutelage.
Cons: Orton is unproven and played in a run first system in Chicago. Last year he had an Eli Manning-like 58.5 completion percentage and 6.4 Y/A. At least 1 INT a game is likely as well.
Bottom Line: Orton may prove to be a decent QB2 by throwing it up there for Eddie Royal and Brandon Marshall. We don’t really know what he has to offer; Orton is one of the drafts mysteries.
Best of the Rest
19) Brett Favre
Bottom Line: Favre is again on a run first team, and is likely to do more dink and donking. His health problems last year may not have been as worrisome as his decision-making problems. Still, he is a hall of fame QB, so if he finds some of his old magic could become a reliable QB2.
20) Eli Manning
Bottom Line: Despite being the NFL’s highest paid player (gag), Eli is inaccurate down the field and relies on the Giants’ running game and throwing checkdown passes. In the past, he’d be able to accomplish some big gains by lobbing it to Plax, but now Plax is gone. Brady made it work with Reche Caldwell and Jabar Gaffney as his top 2 receivers, but to think Eli is capable of doing that would be foolish. Still, the Giants figure to move the ball with their great running game, and Eli may ride that running game to some offensive success as he has in the past.
21) Jake Delhomme
Bottom Line: Delhomme is extremely unreliable, but his heaves down field often find their way into Steve Smith’s hands. Delhomme is a high variance player and is more the hander offer than the thrower in Carolina’s offense, but he does have the potential to ride the amazing Smith.
22) Marc Bulger
Bottom Line: Bulger has completely collapsed the past couple seasons. If SJax goes down again, Bulger should be dropped immediately.
23) Shaun Hill
Bottom Line: If he wins the starting job over Alex Smith, consider that his 13 TDs and 115 rushing yards were over only 9 games.
24) Brady Quinn
Bottom Line: Braylon Edwards will need to come back with a vengeance in order for Quinn to have success, and even that may not be enough for Quinn to post good numbers this season. Derek Anderson could easily steal the job from Quinn in the preseason and just as easily take over the job in the regular season.
25) Jamarcus Russell
Bottom Line: Who knows? He has the talent.
26) Matt Leinart
Bottom Line: If Warner gets hurt, Leinart will inherit Arizona’s weapons.
27) Chad Pennington
Bottom Line: Game manager Pennington has absolutely zero fantasy upside. His okay numbers last year will even be hard to repeat.
28) Joe Flacco
Bottom Line: Despite the media’s adoration, Joe Flacco has an Eli Manning role for Baltimore and is quite raw
29) It really shouldn’t matter
Friday, July 10, 2009
Numbers Do Lie
While I agree that Federer is probably the greatest tennis player, I don’t understand how the validation of his “greatest ever” status was when he reached the magic number of 15, or of 14. To be considered the “greatest ever” is a subjective statement, so why are we trying to objectify it with magic numbers? While numbers, in the form of statistics and records, are important metrics in evaluating the performance of athletes, sometimes we lose sight of the fact that numbers are there to assist in the evaluation, and not to tell the whole story.Much like the mistakes of Wall Street quants that helped to cause the financial meltdown, solely trying to interpret statistics without considering the big picture can result in poor assessments of players’ performances. Let’s say Rafael Nadal was 100% healthy for the French Open and Wimbledon and won both events. Assuming Federer played just as well as he did in the past couple months, how does that change Roger Federer as a player? It doesn’t change him at all. However, how does that change the perception of Roger Federer as a player? He would have been stuck at 13 Grand Slam titles, and not considered the greatest ever yet.
The desire to objectify subjective designations and the ensuing abuse of numbers is not confined to tennis. Last season, when Francisco Rodriguez broke the save record, he finished 3rd in the AL Cy Young voting, with 7 second place votes and 11 third place votes. Meanwhile, Mariano Rivera finished with just 3 third place votes, despite posting a lower E.R.A. (1.40 to 2.24), lower WHIP (0.67 to 1.29), more innings pitched (70.2 to 68.1), and a higher save percentage (39/40 to 62/67). Mo also pitched in more pressure games than did K-Rod, as the Angels ran away with the AL West last year. Unfortunately, we have put so much weight into the saves statistic that voters will blindly vote for the man who broke the record. What if K-Rod had finished 1 save shy of the record, and blew 3 less saves? Despite having a better performance, he would have had less saves, and subsequently less votes.
The number of saves a closer accrues in the course of a season has much less to do with him, and more on the number of opportunities he receives and the quality/pressure of those opportunities. Numerically, a save that protects a 3-run lead counts just as much as a save to protect a 1-run lead. Likewise, a save against your division rival’s heart of the order counts just as much on the stat sheet as a save against a losing team’s bottom of the order. A save is still a save, just as winning a major by beating Nadal counts just as much as winning a major by beating Soderling or Roddick.Still, the use of saves may not be nearly as ludicrous as the use of wins, which has historically been perhaps the most important statistic in Cy Young voting. How else could Bartolo Colon have stolen the 2005 Cy Young over Johan Santana? Colon had 17 first-place votes to Santana’s 3, and had 118 voting points to Santana’s 51. Below are their 2005 statistics.
| Player | W | L | CG | SHO | IP | K | ERA | WHIP |
| | 21 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 222.2 | 157 | 3.48 | 1.16 |
| Santana | 16 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 231.2 | 238 | 2.87 | 0.97 |
In basketball, the 6 NBA titles are what many use to separate Michael Jordan from Kobe Bryant. So if Kobe wins 3 more titles with him as the main man in L.A., many at the moment Kobe wins that 7th championship will say that he has eclipsed MJ as the greatest player ever. While they may have an argument, I would not say that the argument should be centered solely on the magic number of 7. If you can win 6 titles, you can probably win 7 given the proper conditions. Lebron has won 0 titles despite extremely clutch play in the playoffs over his career (2007 NBA Playoffs were incredible). I would not hold him below Dwayne Wade in any way just because Wade has won a title with Shaq in Miami.I don’t mean to suggest that numbers cannot be extremely useful in evaluating athletes’ performances, but merely think that they should be taken with a grain of salt. We could create much more complicated statistics that take into account a massive amount of factors, but these would be impractical or hotly debated in their accuracy (e.g. BCS). Trying to oversimplify subjective classifications into records and numbers could result in missing the whole picture.
P.S. The word greatness is so vague that it makes it even more of a crime to simplify it to a record. Does greatness refer to who dominated his era the most, who performed at a high level for the longest time, or who at his prime played at the highest level?
P.S. In tennis, it’s impossible to compare the wood racquet era with the current era. If Rod Laver was born in 1985, would he even qualify to play in Grand Slams? His 5’8” frame may not have had the power necessary to compete in today’s game, and would not have had the wingspan to approach the net as Laver did in his day.
Thursday, June 11, 2009
Why the Lions and Jets were Right to Draft Stafford and Sanchez
The high risk involved when drafting a first round quarterback or even a top-5 caliber pick is well documented. Just search "first round quarterbacks" on Google if you want to get an idea. However, is it really that bad?News came out today that Mark Sanchez signed a 5 year, $50 million dollar deal (with the potential to be worth $60 million with incentives), with $28 million in guaranteed money. Of course this is after Matthew Stafford signed a six-year contract worth up to $78 million with $41.7 million guaranteed. Now I do think these guys are being paid too much. Stafford has yet to play a down and has more guaranteed money in a contract than anyone has ever had.
Still, the issue of the amount of money a top 5 pick receives should not be confused with the issue of whether or not a quarterback is drafted with the pick. Even if the Lions selected Jason Smith, Smith also would be paid probably more than any other #1 overall pick in history (though perhaps not as much as Stafford). Inflation happens, the NFL salary cap increases, and so naturally salaries of #1 picks will increase over time.
It is easy to accuse the Lions and Jets of putting tens of millions of dollars into a risky investment. The quarterback could bust and then the team would have to deal with salary cap troubles; quarterbacks taken early often fail. Again, just search “first round quarterbacks” on Google.
Another key piece of evidence that Lions and Jets could be making the wrong decision is that teams this decade have perhaps been overvaluing quarterbacks. History shows teams have been taking quarterbacks much more frequently with early picks recently. Since 1998, 9 of the 12 #1 overall picks have been quarterbacks. Before that, only 7 quarterbacks were drafted #1 since the AFL-NFL merger! Those picks came in 1993 (Bledsoe), 1989 (Aikman), 1987 (Testaverde), 1983 (Elway), 1975 (Bartkowski), 1971 (Plunkett), and 1970 (Bradshaw). Notice that the only complete bust was Testaverde for Tampa Bay in 1987, and there were several legends in that group. Maybe teams knew when to draft quarterbacks back then, and teams are just being plain stupid now.
Now I want to support the Lions and Jets.
Let’s make the argument that quarterbacks were simply undervalued before recently. The argument for taking a quarterback with an early pick centers around the fact that the quarterback is the most important position on almost every team. While drafting a player of another position may carry less risk, that player doesn't have the potential to carry a team to the Super Bowl. If you have a bad quarterback, you can forget about your Super Bowl hopes. Just look at Minnesota, which has the makings of a great team with the exception of the quarterback position. Now, Minnesota is desperately trying to recruit Brett Favre, who is coming off an atrocious season.
Let’s say you are the GM of an NFL team with the #1 overall pick. What situation would you rather have? A player that has a 75% chance to be Orlando Pace (1st overall pick in 1997) and a small chance of being a complete bust or a 25% chance of being Peyton Manning and a 20% chance of being a complete bust? I’d take the latter situation.
I know that Orlando Pace has had an incredible career, is a 5-time First-team All-Pro, and a certain Hall of Famer. The left tackle position is extremely important, as it protects the quarterback’s blind side. However, Peyton Manning is going to do a lot more for my franchise in terms of excitement and success, obviously giving me a MUCH greater chance at achieving my Super Bowl aspirations. No matter how good my left tackle is, the potential positive impact he can have on my offense will pale in comparison to that of my quarterback.To show the importance of a quarterback, consider the Super Bowl quarterbacks of this century: Warner, McNair, Dilfer, Collins, Brady, Brad Johnson, Gannon, McNabb, Roethlisberger, Hasselbeck, Peyton, Rex Grossman, and Eli. 8 of those 13 quarterbacks were drafted in the first round. In addition, the overall picks of those 8 quarterbacks were generally very early, being 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 11, and 22 (Grossman). Good luck to teams who don’t have first round quarterbacks and need to look for 6th round gems (Brady, Hasselbeck). Also, sorry but the Arena League has folded if you are hoping for the next Kurt Warner. As for trading for a Jay Cutler, it's not often that a top quarterback gets traded in his prime.
There should be a lot of quarterback busts, and if there aren’t, something is wrong. Teams should be willing to take greater risks with a quarterback, because a successful quarterback yields greater reward than any other position, and a Super Bowl victory is a much greater high than having the worst record in the league is a low. If half of the quarterbacks taken #1 overall were legends before recently, then teams were definitely undervaluing quarterbacks.
Good job Detroit Lions and New York Jets.
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