This year's quarterback crop is full of uncertainties, from players coming back from injury (Brady, Palmer, Hasselbeck), players moving to different teams (Cassel, Cutler, Orton, Favre), and players that are always question marks (Schaub, Eli Manning). For that reason, there should be more major surprises as well as more major disappointments this fantasy football season.
I believe the top 5 quarterbacks are close, and there are a bunch of other QBs who could easily become top 5 QBs this year. For that reason, the draft strategy for quarterbacks is pretty clear: WAIT after Brady, Brees, and Manning go.
Here are my QB rankings for the upcoming fantasy season:
TIER 1
1) Tom Brady
Pros: The knee looked great in the first preseason game, and no QB has a higher ceiling than Brady (not even up for debate). In his first season throwing to Moss and Welker he threw 50 TDs compared to 8 picks and 4806 yards.
Cons: The injury risk is definitely a concern, and there may be some rustiness in the first month or so of the season. Some worry that he'll be distracted by Gisele and married life (Gisele...wow). Be careful not to overvalue him and draft him in the first two rounds, as he is unlikely to throw 40+ touchdowns again.
Bottom Line: Brady is one of the all-time greatest quarterbacks, and one of the most competitive quarterbacks of all-time. He won't be scared of contact and he'll be doing everything he can to prove the Giant's Super Bowl victory was a fluke. It’s time to show the world that Brady and the Patriots are back and ready to continue their run as the greatest team of the decade. I would be willing to take a risk on him early in the third round.
2) Drew Brees
Pros: Brees airs it out every game no matter who is injured on the Saints. If Reggie Bush and Marques Colston can stay healthy for the whole season, Brees should easily throw 30+ TDs this season.
Cons: The Saints D allowed the 6th most points in the NFL last year. If they become a better defensive team this year, Brees could be involved in less shootouts.
Bottom Line: Brees has little downside and is a safe bet to be a top 5 quarterback this coming year. He could easily be taken ahead of Brady even though he has less upside than him.
3) Peyton Manning
Pros: Manning is consistently great every season, excluding one season which was beyond great. How consistent is he? Here are his passing TD totals over his career: 26, 26, 33, 26, 27, 29, 49, 28, 31, 31, and 27. Oh, and he’s never missed a game in his 11 seasons. Peyton has proven that he doesn’t need a healthy and/or effective Marvin Harrison the past two years. Last year, he proved that he can overcome injury and be effective despite an unhealthy Joseph Addai and a struggling offensive line. Addai should be healthier this year, and if he struggles Donald Brown looks like a capable back.
Cons: When a new coach arrives, there is a level of uncertainty as to how his new team will respond. This is especially true when replacing a coach of Tony Dungy’s caliber. Manning also has less upside than Brady or Brees.
Bottom Line: Manning is a near lock for 4000 yards and 25+ TDs, and has less downside than Brady or Brees. Reaching for Manning late in the third round could pay off, as the security Manning offers deserves a premium.
4) Phillip Rivers
Pros: 105.5 QB rating, 34 TDs, 11 INTs, 4009 yards, 65.3 comp %, 8.4 Y/A. Rivers was broke out last year as the Chargers became a passing team due to a struggling and unhealthy LT. Rivers has his full arsenal of weapons again this year plus a healthier Gates and healthier LT.
Cons: If LT is effective and healthy this year, Rivers’ attempts could be cut way down, along with his passing TDs. He also doesn’t have the track record of a Manning, Brees, or Brady.
Bottom Line: Rivers could end up having the same value as the top 3 QBs, but should not be drafted with the top 3 QBs.
5) Aaron Rodgers
Pros: In Rodgers’ first season as a starter, he threw 28 TDs versus 13 INTs, rushed for 207 yards and 4 scores, and threw over 4000 yards. Rodgers still has room to grow, and offers tantalizing upside throwing to Greg Jennings and Donald Driver.
Cons: While a Rodgers has more upside because he is younger and still learning, he also has more downside because he is less proven.
Bottom Line: Rodgers should be good for 25+ TDs this year, provided his offense remains healthy. He should be drafted near Rivers.
TIER 2
6) Kurt Warner
Pros: The Cardinals are a pass heavy team, finishing 2nd in the league in passing and last in the league in rushing. Boldin, Fitzgerald, and Breaston are back and motivated to return to the Super Bowl.
Cons: If you draft Warner, handcuffing Leinart is a must. Warner is 38 years old and has an injury history, including a replaced hip. He also will turn the ball over, both with interceptions and fumbles. Warner has fumbled 12 and 11 times in the past two years (losing 7 and 6), respectively. He has negative 2 yards rushing last year.
Bottom Line: Warner has just as much upside as the top 5 QBs, but has considerably more downside. Last year he was undervalued, but this year he is overvalued.
7) Tony Romo
Pros: In his 3 seasons as a starter, numbers have not been a problem for Romo. He has been a yardage and TD monster, and has been efficient with a 94.7 QB rating, 63.6 completion percentage, and 8.1 Y/A for his career. Marion Barber played through injury all last year and should be healthier to help the Cowboys’ offense this year, and Roy Williams looks ready to be the #1 receiver, reportedly trimming 10-15 pounds in the offseason. Romo also showed his toughness last year by playing injured last year.
Cons: When T.O. has left teams in the past, his former QB’s stats have suffered considerably. Romo also faces the intense pressure of expectations in Dallas. Plus, I would be pretty crushed if I broke up with Jessica Simpson.
Bottom Line: When T.O. left San Francisco and Philadelphia, those teams did not have a receiver the caliber of Roy Williams ready to take over the role of #1 wideout or a tight end like Jason Witten. Romo still has plenty of weapons and offers considerable upside.
TIER 3
8) Donovan McNabb
Pros: McNabb will have his best receiving corps since T.O. this year, with Desean Jackson entering his 2nd year, Kevin Curtis healthy, rookie Jeremy Maclin, and Reggie Brown. McNabb has never thrown a lot of INTs, and is an experienced player.
Cons: McNabb has a history of injuries, and could easily go down this season as well. In addition, Brian Westbrook, another fragile player, is not getting any younger, and if he gets hurt the Eagles offense will become a question mark. Lastly, the whole Michael Vick experiment (Wildcat, McNabb and Vick both playing at the same time) seems a bit risky.
Bottom Line: McNabb has potential this year with Jackson, Curtis, and Maclin. He also has his share of risks. I would avoid drafting him if it’s possible to wait and pick up a similar QB.
9) Matt Schaub
Pros: Houston threw for the 4th most yards in the league last year and boasts Andre Johnson and Kevin Walter. Steve Slaton is also excellent catching the ball out of the backfield. Upside upside upside.
Cons: Schaub can’t seem to stay on the field. Not only that, but he has been inconsistent when on the field.
Bottom Line: Schaub is one of the biggest gambles in the draft, offering the potential to be a top 5 QB or a player who you keep injured on your bench. If you think you can draft a good #2 QB later in the draft, feel free to draft Schaub ahead of Romo.
10) Carson Palmer
Pros: He says he’s healthy, and Coles should fill the hole left by Housh. Palmer will be airing it out this year, and could return to the 30 touchdown area. Cincinnati could find themselves in a lot of shootout games this year.
Cons: Even when he was healthy, Palmer struggled in 2007 when he threw 20 INTs. He still has a lot to prove as a top tier NFL quarterback, and won’t have the running game that he had with Rudi Johnson a few years ago. Is Ocho Cinco as good a player as before he changed his name?
Bottom Line: Palmer is a risky pick, but he has shown the ability to throw 30 TDs, and still has weapons. Draft him if you want to take a risk, but be ready to draft another QB soon after.
11) Matt Ryan
Pros: Ryan showed he has the ability to become one of the game’s best QBs in his rookie season. He wasn’t a dink and donk specialist, as demonstrated by his 7.9 Y/A. Now he has Tony Gonzalez, and young QBs love tight ends.
Cons: Atlanta ran the ball 35 times a game last year, so Ryan is clearly passing in a run-first offense. Will Atlanta pass more this year, and if they do, will Ryan be ready for it in his second year in the league?
Bottom Line: Ryan has upside, unlike many quarterbacks in a run first offense that simply dink and donk (e.g. Eli Manning, Brett Favre last year, Joe Flacco, Kerry Collins). However, it’s exciting to pick the young star in drafts, and somebody is going to reach for him. Don’t be that person.
12) Ben Roethlisberger
Pros: being an overrated manage-the-game quarterback earlier in his career, he has much more freedom now. This was mainly due to an atrocious offensive line and an extremely difficult schedule, two things that have to be better this year. Santonio Holmes looks ready to break out.
Cons: Big Ben always seems to be hurt and injuries have hurt his performance. Despite the Super Bowl performance, don’t forget that Roethlisberger had a horrible regular season last year, with just 17 passing TDs, 15 INTs, and 14 fumbles, 7 of which were lost. He has never passed for a lot of yards in his career, including last year when he averaged only 206 yards of passing a game.
Bottom Line: Big Ben is a solid pick as a trustworthy #2 QB, but doesn’t have the upside of the quarterbacks above and is a major injury risk.
13) Matt Hasselbeck
Pros: Hasselbeck showed what he can do without an effective Shaun Alexander 2 years ago by throwing for 28 TDs versus 12 INTs and almost 3966 yards. This year, he will be throwing to T.J. Houshmandzadeh to go with Nate Burleson and Deion Branch. He’ll also be throwing at division foes St. Louis, San Francisco, and Arizona.
Cons: When Hasselbeck did play last year, it wasn’t pretty. Even if he is healthy this year, he’s not a guarantee to be a 25+ TD quarterback, a mark he has accomplished only twice in his career. If he’s ineffective, Seneca Wallace is ready to take over.
Bottom Line: Hasselbeck is a risky pick, but is his upside in the later rounds far outweighs his downside. He could be a top 5 QB.
14) Jay Cutler
Pros: Cutler is going to be extremely motivated to stick it to Josh McDaniels, and certainly has the arm to do it. He is entering just his 4th season in the league, and threw for 4500+ yards last year. He also has run for 200 yards 2 years in a row.
Cons: Cutler will go from throwing to Brandon Marshall and Eddie Royal to…who? Devin Hester? It’s doubtful Cutler will approach 4000 yards passing with his most proven receivers are tight ends Greg Olsen and Desmond Clark. The Bears offense will be running the ball with Matt Forte much more than throwing bullets down field with Cutler.
Bottom Line: If Cutler was still in Denver, he could potentially be a top 5 QB pick. His talent is undeniable, and Cutler might make stars out of some unproven receivers in Chicago. Cutler should make for a solid QB2, but nothing more.
15) Matt Cassel
Pros: After struggling in the first third of the season, Cassel emerged as one of fantasy’s best QBs down the stretch. Despite not starting a game since high school, passed for almost 3700 yards, 21 TDs and 11 INTs. He’s also an underrated runner, and his 2 rushing TDs and 270 rushing yards provided a nice boost to his fantasy stats. He showed poise and accuracy while throwing 7 games with a 100+ QB rating last year. With continued development, Cassel could emerge as one of the league’s best QBs. The arrival of Todd Haley and a huge contract will mean KC is going to pass frequently this season.
Cons: Cassel’s most obvious con is that he was in New England last year, and although Dwayne Bowe is good, there are few other options in Kansas City. Cassel has reportedly been struggling during camp, and if he’s ineffective Brodie Croyle could run away with the QB job.
Bottom Line: Cassel is still unproven, but he certainly showed some skills last year that cannot simply be attributed to being in New England. He’s a risky pick who could become a QB1 or an ineffective QB in the free agent pool.
16) David Garrard
Pros: Fred Taylor left, and Torry Holt arrived in the offseason. MJD has never had 200 carries in a season, so it makes sense to think Garrard should be passing a lot this season and may eclipse his 3620 yards last season. His 2 rushing TDs and 322 rushing yards last year were very important for fantasy purposes.
Cons: Garrard has a solid floor, but he has never thrown for 20 TDs and that may be his upside. The Jacksonville offense will be based on MJD’s running.
Bottom Line: Garrard is a reliable #2 QB. He shouldn’t be any better or worse than that.
17) Trent Edwards
Pros: Entering his 3rd year, Edwards has room to grow. He certainly has toys to play with, as T.O. and Lee Evans could make one of the best tandems in the league.
Cons: Edwards is raw and Buffalo’s O-line is a major question mark. Young QBs and bad O-lines are not a pretty combination. Buffalo may not have a running game to back Edwards up, as Marshawn Lynch is a question mark and suspended for the first 3 games. T.O. could also cause headaches.
Bottom Line: Draft with fear, but T.O. has always made his QBs more successful in his first season with a new team.
18) Kyle Orton
Pros: Brandon Marshall is a stud and Eddie Royal seems to be a stud entering his 2nd year. Orton has never had a chance to throw to receivers of this caliber, and could produce a Cassel-like season under Josh McDaniel’s tutelage.
Cons: Orton is unproven and played in a run first system in Chicago. Last year he had an Eli Manning-like 58.5 completion percentage and 6.4 Y/A. At least 1 INT a game is likely as well.
Bottom Line: Orton may prove to be a decent QB2 by throwing it up there for Eddie Royal and Brandon Marshall. We don’t really know what he has to offer; Orton is one of the drafts mysteries.
Best of the Rest
19) Brett Favre
Bottom Line: Favre is again on a run first team, and is likely to do more dink and donking. His health problems last year may not have been as worrisome as his decision-making problems. Still, he is a hall of fame QB, so if he finds some of his old magic could become a reliable QB2.
20) Eli Manning
Bottom Line: Despite being the NFL’s highest paid player (gag), Eli is inaccurate down the field and relies on the Giants’ running game and throwing checkdown passes. In the past, he’d be able to accomplish some big gains by lobbing it to Plax, but now Plax is gone. Brady made it work with Reche Caldwell and Jabar Gaffney as his top 2 receivers, but to think Eli is capable of doing that would be foolish. Still, the Giants figure to move the ball with their great running game, and Eli may ride that running game to some offensive success as he has in the past.
21) Jake Delhomme
Bottom Line: Delhomme is extremely unreliable, but his heaves down field often find their way into Steve Smith’s hands. Delhomme is a high variance player and is more the hander offer than the thrower in Carolina’s offense, but he does have the potential to ride the amazing Smith.
22) Marc Bulger
Bottom Line: Bulger has completely collapsed the past couple seasons. If SJax goes down again, Bulger should be dropped immediately.
23) Shaun Hill
Bottom Line: If he wins the starting job over Alex Smith, consider that his 13 TDs and 115 rushing yards were over only 9 games.
24) Brady Quinn
Bottom Line: Braylon Edwards will need to come back with a vengeance in order for Quinn to have success, and even that may not be enough for Quinn to post good numbers this season. Derek Anderson could easily steal the job from Quinn in the preseason and just as easily take over the job in the regular season.
25) Jamarcus Russell
Bottom Line: Who knows? He has the talent.
26) Matt Leinart
Bottom Line: If Warner gets hurt, Leinart will inherit Arizona’s weapons.
27) Chad Pennington
Bottom Line: Game manager Pennington has absolutely zero fantasy upside. His okay numbers last year will even be hard to repeat.
28) Joe Flacco
Bottom Line: Despite the media’s adoration, Joe Flacco has an Eli Manning role for Baltimore and is quite raw
29) It really shouldn’t matter
Sunday, August 16, 2009
Friday, July 10, 2009
Numbers Do Lie
While I agree that Federer is probably the greatest tennis player, I don’t understand how the validation of his “greatest ever” status was when he reached the magic number of 15, or of 14. To be considered the “greatest ever” is a subjective statement, so why are we trying to objectify it with magic numbers? While numbers, in the form of statistics and records, are important metrics in evaluating the performance of athletes, sometimes we lose sight of the fact that numbers are there to assist in the evaluation, and not to tell the whole story.Much like the mistakes of Wall Street quants that helped to cause the financial meltdown, solely trying to interpret statistics without considering the big picture can result in poor assessments of players’ performances. Let’s say Rafael Nadal was 100% healthy for the French Open and Wimbledon and won both events. Assuming Federer played just as well as he did in the past couple months, how does that change Roger Federer as a player? It doesn’t change him at all. However, how does that change the perception of Roger Federer as a player? He would have been stuck at 13 Grand Slam titles, and not considered the greatest ever yet.
The desire to objectify subjective designations and the ensuing abuse of numbers is not confined to tennis. Last season, when Francisco Rodriguez broke the save record, he finished 3rd in the AL Cy Young voting, with 7 second place votes and 11 third place votes. Meanwhile, Mariano Rivera finished with just 3 third place votes, despite posting a lower E.R.A. (1.40 to 2.24), lower WHIP (0.67 to 1.29), more innings pitched (70.2 to 68.1), and a higher save percentage (39/40 to 62/67). Mo also pitched in more pressure games than did K-Rod, as the Angels ran away with the AL West last year. Unfortunately, we have put so much weight into the saves statistic that voters will blindly vote for the man who broke the record. What if K-Rod had finished 1 save shy of the record, and blew 3 less saves? Despite having a better performance, he would have had less saves, and subsequently less votes.
The number of saves a closer accrues in the course of a season has much less to do with him, and more on the number of opportunities he receives and the quality/pressure of those opportunities. Numerically, a save that protects a 3-run lead counts just as much as a save to protect a 1-run lead. Likewise, a save against your division rival’s heart of the order counts just as much on the stat sheet as a save against a losing team’s bottom of the order. A save is still a save, just as winning a major by beating Nadal counts just as much as winning a major by beating Soderling or Roddick.Still, the use of saves may not be nearly as ludicrous as the use of wins, which has historically been perhaps the most important statistic in Cy Young voting. How else could Bartolo Colon have stolen the 2005 Cy Young over Johan Santana? Colon had 17 first-place votes to Santana’s 3, and had 118 voting points to Santana’s 51. Below are their 2005 statistics.
| Player | W | L | CG | SHO | IP | K | ERA | WHIP |
| | 21 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 222.2 | 157 | 3.48 | 1.16 |
| Santana | 16 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 231.2 | 238 | 2.87 | 0.97 |
In basketball, the 6 NBA titles are what many use to separate Michael Jordan from Kobe Bryant. So if Kobe wins 3 more titles with him as the main man in L.A., many at the moment Kobe wins that 7th championship will say that he has eclipsed MJ as the greatest player ever. While they may have an argument, I would not say that the argument should be centered solely on the magic number of 7. If you can win 6 titles, you can probably win 7 given the proper conditions. Lebron has won 0 titles despite extremely clutch play in the playoffs over his career (2007 NBA Playoffs were incredible). I would not hold him below Dwayne Wade in any way just because Wade has won a title with Shaq in Miami.I don’t mean to suggest that numbers cannot be extremely useful in evaluating athletes’ performances, but merely think that they should be taken with a grain of salt. We could create much more complicated statistics that take into account a massive amount of factors, but these would be impractical or hotly debated in their accuracy (e.g. BCS). Trying to oversimplify subjective classifications into records and numbers could result in missing the whole picture.
P.S. The word greatness is so vague that it makes it even more of a crime to simplify it to a record. Does greatness refer to who dominated his era the most, who performed at a high level for the longest time, or who at his prime played at the highest level?
P.S. In tennis, it’s impossible to compare the wood racquet era with the current era. If Rod Laver was born in 1985, would he even qualify to play in Grand Slams? His 5’8” frame may not have had the power necessary to compete in today’s game, and would not have had the wingspan to approach the net as Laver did in his day.
Thursday, June 11, 2009
Why the Lions and Jets were Right to Draft Stafford and Sanchez
The high risk involved when drafting a first round quarterback or even a top-5 caliber pick is well documented. Just search "first round quarterbacks" on Google if you want to get an idea. However, is it really that bad?News came out today that Mark Sanchez signed a 5 year, $50 million dollar deal (with the potential to be worth $60 million with incentives), with $28 million in guaranteed money. Of course this is after Matthew Stafford signed a six-year contract worth up to $78 million with $41.7 million guaranteed. Now I do think these guys are being paid too much. Stafford has yet to play a down and has more guaranteed money in a contract than anyone has ever had.
Still, the issue of the amount of money a top 5 pick receives should not be confused with the issue of whether or not a quarterback is drafted with the pick. Even if the Lions selected Jason Smith, Smith also would be paid probably more than any other #1 overall pick in history (though perhaps not as much as Stafford). Inflation happens, the NFL salary cap increases, and so naturally salaries of #1 picks will increase over time.
It is easy to accuse the Lions and Jets of putting tens of millions of dollars into a risky investment. The quarterback could bust and then the team would have to deal with salary cap troubles; quarterbacks taken early often fail. Again, just search “first round quarterbacks” on Google.
Another key piece of evidence that Lions and Jets could be making the wrong decision is that teams this decade have perhaps been overvaluing quarterbacks. History shows teams have been taking quarterbacks much more frequently with early picks recently. Since 1998, 9 of the 12 #1 overall picks have been quarterbacks. Before that, only 7 quarterbacks were drafted #1 since the AFL-NFL merger! Those picks came in 1993 (Bledsoe), 1989 (Aikman), 1987 (Testaverde), 1983 (Elway), 1975 (Bartkowski), 1971 (Plunkett), and 1970 (Bradshaw). Notice that the only complete bust was Testaverde for Tampa Bay in 1987, and there were several legends in that group. Maybe teams knew when to draft quarterbacks back then, and teams are just being plain stupid now.
Now I want to support the Lions and Jets.
Let’s make the argument that quarterbacks were simply undervalued before recently. The argument for taking a quarterback with an early pick centers around the fact that the quarterback is the most important position on almost every team. While drafting a player of another position may carry less risk, that player doesn't have the potential to carry a team to the Super Bowl. If you have a bad quarterback, you can forget about your Super Bowl hopes. Just look at Minnesota, which has the makings of a great team with the exception of the quarterback position. Now, Minnesota is desperately trying to recruit Brett Favre, who is coming off an atrocious season.
Let’s say you are the GM of an NFL team with the #1 overall pick. What situation would you rather have? A player that has a 75% chance to be Orlando Pace (1st overall pick in 1997) and a small chance of being a complete bust or a 25% chance of being Peyton Manning and a 20% chance of being a complete bust? I’d take the latter situation.
I know that Orlando Pace has had an incredible career, is a 5-time First-team All-Pro, and a certain Hall of Famer. The left tackle position is extremely important, as it protects the quarterback’s blind side. However, Peyton Manning is going to do a lot more for my franchise in terms of excitement and success, obviously giving me a MUCH greater chance at achieving my Super Bowl aspirations. No matter how good my left tackle is, the potential positive impact he can have on my offense will pale in comparison to that of my quarterback.To show the importance of a quarterback, consider the Super Bowl quarterbacks of this century: Warner, McNair, Dilfer, Collins, Brady, Brad Johnson, Gannon, McNabb, Roethlisberger, Hasselbeck, Peyton, Rex Grossman, and Eli. 8 of those 13 quarterbacks were drafted in the first round. In addition, the overall picks of those 8 quarterbacks were generally very early, being 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 11, and 22 (Grossman). Good luck to teams who don’t have first round quarterbacks and need to look for 6th round gems (Brady, Hasselbeck). Also, sorry but the Arena League has folded if you are hoping for the next Kurt Warner. As for trading for a Jay Cutler, it's not often that a top quarterback gets traded in his prime.
There should be a lot of quarterback busts, and if there aren’t, something is wrong. Teams should be willing to take greater risks with a quarterback, because a successful quarterback yields greater reward than any other position, and a Super Bowl victory is a much greater high than having the worst record in the league is a low. If half of the quarterbacks taken #1 overall were legends before recently, then teams were definitely undervaluing quarterbacks.
Good job Detroit Lions and New York Jets.
Monday, June 1, 2009
The Merits of Heavy 3-Point Shooting
Usually, a team that “lives or dies by the 3-pointer” is not commended for their heavy perimeter shooting mentality. However, there are two sides to the story. When a team relies on lower percentage shots, especially perimeter shooting, to account for much of its scoring, it plays with a high variance on the number of points it can score on any given night. 3-point shooting for the Magic accounts for 29.7 percent of its scoring, the highest percentage in the league (league average is 19.9 percent).
This high variance is dangerous in 2 ways, one good one bad:
1) The Magic are more vulnerable to lesser teams. If the Magic have an off night shooting, they could lose to teams that they should not lose to. For example, when Orlando shot 5 for 18 from the 3-point land in Game 1 against Philadelphia, they surprisingly lost to the 76ers. By contrast, the 76ers shot 7-12 from 3-point land that game.
2) The Magic are more dangerous to the Cavs and the Lakers. In the Cleveland series, Orlando’s sharpshooters were hot. In games 1 to 6, they shot 9/20 (45.0%), 10/23 (43.5), 6/17 (35.3), 17/38 (44.7), 8/25 (32.0), and 12/29 (41.4). The losses came in game 2 (Lebron’s shot) and game 5, an off night shooting. I don’t think that Orlando is a better team than Cleveland, but they were able to squeeze out victories despite Lebron’s amazing games (with the exception of the blowout in game 6) with great shooting nights. Their actual offensive output, due to higher variance, can be much greater than their average/expected offensive output.
When people blindly criticize teams that shoot a lot of 3’s, they fail to take into account that in the NBA, teams’ expected value on a 3-point shot (3-point percentage*3) is higher than teams’ expected value on 2-point shots (2-point percentage*2) almost all of the time. For this season, on average, the first number is 1.10, and the second number is 0.97. The only team that has a higher expected value for 2-pointers than 3-pointers are the 76ers, who only shoot 13.1 3-pointers per game (2nd to last in the league).
Here is a preview of the 3-point shooting for the finals
| | Magic | Lakers | League Average | |||
| | Reg | Post | Reg | Post | Reg | Post |
| Made | 10.0 | 8.6 | 6.7 | 7.1 | 6.7 | 6.4 |
| Attempted | 26.2 | 23.4 | 18.5 | 18.8 | 18.1 | 18.3 |
| Percentage | 38.1 | 36.7 | 36.1 | 37.9 | 36.5 | 34.9 |
| % of pts by 3 | 29.7 | 26.2 | 18.8 | 20.7 | 19.9 | 20.3 |
| 3-pt EV | 1.143 | 1.101 | 1.083 | 1.137 | 1.096 | 1.048 |
| 2-pt fg% | 49.4 | 50.9 | 50.5 | 49.5 | 48.5 | 47.6 |
| 2-pt EV | 0.988 | 1.017 | 1.009 | 0.990 | .971 | 0.952 |
For the Magic to win this series over what is probably a more complete Lakers team, they have to have some hot 3-point shooting. If Jameer Nelson came back as he apparently might (45.3% from 3, 2nd best in the league), that would certainly help. However, a big worry is that Rashard Lewis, who led the league in 3-pointers made and attempted in the regular season by shooting 7.0 threes per game at a 39.7% clip (down to 1.9/4.8, 39.1% in playoffs), will now be guarded by a more athletic power forward if Lamar Odom is on the court for the Lakers. Contrast Odom to Big Baby or Anderson Varejao (gag).
Still, even if Lewis will be better covered, Orlando has more than enough shooters to pick up the slack. They’ll need to in order to beat the Lakers.
Tuesday, March 17, 2009
GICNIPs: Players who are Great in College, Nothing in the Pros
Tim Tebow is one of the greatest college football players of all time. However, when a friend of mine tried to tell me how Tebow would be one of the best NFL quarterbacks as well, I stopped him short. The professional game, in football and basketball, requires spectacular talent in order to excel. College athletes, while still requiring great talent to excel, can do so without the same skill set required for the pros. As with many things, the key motto here is "it's all relative." In this case, an athlete's performance is relative to the skill level of his opposition.
There appears to be a major hole in what I'm saying: If Tim Tebow is a great college player, wouldn't he also hypothetically be one of the best professional players of all the current college players? Thus, shouldn't he eventually become a great professional player, seeing as practically all NFL players played college football?
No. By "relative," I mean that there are certain threshold requirements for success at each level. Let's say, for sake of simplicity, that we measure specific skills (speed, IQ, height, vertical, strength, etc) on a scale of 0.0 (worst) to 10.0 (best). On the scales, let's have 3.0 correlate to the average ability of a major college conference football/basketball player, and 7.0 correlate to the average ability of an NFL/NBA player.
Now, let's say a college football player is a 7.0 for speed. That makes him very fast compared to his fellow NCAA athletes. When running to the outside, he'll get to the corner before the defender most of the time and streak down the field. Unfortunately, once this player moves to the pros, he'll realize that NFL defenses are far faster than NCAA defenses, and his attempts to get to the corner will be foiled. Many of Ron Dayne's Wisconsin runs in this video that went for touchdowns or long gains would not have been nearly as successful in the pros, and indeed they weren't. Comparatively, in basketball, a foward who is 6'8" may be able to fight for boards effectively in college, but for a 6'8" forward to be a successful rebounder will be a great challenge in the NBA.
The point I am trying to get at is that a rating of 7.0 versus 9.0 may not make a tremendous difference in college, while it makes a world of difference in the pros. All of Ron Dayne's long touchdown runs in college would still be long touchdown runs even if Dayne's speed was that of Chris Johnson's. The added speed would certainly be a help in college and make Dayne even more of a force, but Dayne's speed was enough for the job as it was. Clearly, the New York Giants completely ignored this fact, drafting Dayne with the 11th overall pick, enamored with his college fame and Heisman trophy.
Dayne is my example of a GICNIP, a player who is great in college, but nothing in the pros. His talent level was simply not sufficient to succeed at the next level. Other GICNIPs include Michael Vick and Vince Young, who could not overcome their lack of passing accuracy and football IQ, Jason White, who could not overcome his lack of natural passing ability (horrible mechanics), Adam Morrison, J.J. Redick, and Casey Jacobsen, who could not overcome their lack of athleticism, and many others you can probably think of.
If a player is to excel in the pros, he needs to either be consistently above 7.0 in his skills, or have at least one skill that is truly phenomenal (extremely fast i.e. Joey Galloway, extremely good shooter i.e. Ray Allen).
The classic GICNIP is Tyler Hansborough. Undoubtedly, Hansborough is one of the best college basketball players in the game, but his game will not translate to professional basketball. He doesn't have great athleticism (not that quick, not that explosive, can't jump that high), doesn't have much size (only 6'8"), and while he overpowers a lot of defenders to score now, that tactic will certainly not work at the next level.
For football, Tim Tebow is the next classic GICNIP. While he can throw a good deep ball and has good size, parts of his game surely will not translate to being a professional quarterback (they are below 7.0 on my scale). His passing mechanics are poor, and he won't have enough accuracy or touch to succeed as a passer in the NFL. Maybe Tebow will find another position, but otherwise he will be a peasant's Michael Vick.
There appears to be a major hole in what I'm saying: If Tim Tebow is a great college player, wouldn't he also hypothetically be one of the best professional players of all the current college players? Thus, shouldn't he eventually become a great professional player, seeing as practically all NFL players played college football?
No. By "relative," I mean that there are certain threshold requirements for success at each level. Let's say, for sake of simplicity, that we measure specific skills (speed, IQ, height, vertical, strength, etc) on a scale of 0.0 (worst) to 10.0 (best). On the scales, let's have 3.0 correlate to the average ability of a major college conference football/basketball player, and 7.0 correlate to the average ability of an NFL/NBA player.
Now, let's say a college football player is a 7.0 for speed. That makes him very fast compared to his fellow NCAA athletes. When running to the outside, he'll get to the corner before the defender most of the time and streak down the field. Unfortunately, once this player moves to the pros, he'll realize that NFL defenses are far faster than NCAA defenses, and his attempts to get to the corner will be foiled. Many of Ron Dayne's Wisconsin runs in this video that went for touchdowns or long gains would not have been nearly as successful in the pros, and indeed they weren't. Comparatively, in basketball, a foward who is 6'8" may be able to fight for boards effectively in college, but for a 6'8" forward to be a successful rebounder will be a great challenge in the NBA.The point I am trying to get at is that a rating of 7.0 versus 9.0 may not make a tremendous difference in college, while it makes a world of difference in the pros. All of Ron Dayne's long touchdown runs in college would still be long touchdown runs even if Dayne's speed was that of Chris Johnson's. The added speed would certainly be a help in college and make Dayne even more of a force, but Dayne's speed was enough for the job as it was. Clearly, the New York Giants completely ignored this fact, drafting Dayne with the 11th overall pick, enamored with his college fame and Heisman trophy.
Dayne is my example of a GICNIP, a player who is great in college, but nothing in the pros. His talent level was simply not sufficient to succeed at the next level. Other GICNIPs include Michael Vick and Vince Young, who could not overcome their lack of passing accuracy and football IQ, Jason White, who could not overcome his lack of natural passing ability (horrible mechanics), Adam Morrison, J.J. Redick, and Casey Jacobsen, who could not overcome their lack of athleticism, and many others you can probably think of.
If a player is to excel in the pros, he needs to either be consistently above 7.0 in his skills, or have at least one skill that is truly phenomenal (extremely fast i.e. Joey Galloway, extremely good shooter i.e. Ray Allen).
The classic GICNIP is Tyler Hansborough. Undoubtedly, Hansborough is one of the best college basketball players in the game, but his game will not translate to professional basketball. He doesn't have great athleticism (not that quick, not that explosive, can't jump that high), doesn't have much size (only 6'8"), and while he overpowers a lot of defenders to score now, that tactic will certainly not work at the next level.
For football, Tim Tebow is the next classic GICNIP. While he can throw a good deep ball and has good size, parts of his game surely will not translate to being a professional quarterback (they are below 7.0 on my scale). His passing mechanics are poor, and he won't have enough accuracy or touch to succeed as a passer in the NFL. Maybe Tebow will find another position, but otherwise he will be a peasant's Michael Vick.
Tuesday, February 17, 2009
Fantasy Baseball Draft Cheat Sheet
Here are the cheat sheets I created for fantasy baseball drafts. There is a cheat sheet for each position then the prerankings I use for the draft. These sheets are made for 12-team Rotisserie fantasy leagues with roster positions C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, OF, OF, OF, Util, SP, SP, RP, RP, P, P, P, BN, BN, BN, BN, BN, DL.
Generally, in drafts, I try to make sure I don't miss in the early rounds. It's best to take safer players because if you miss on your early round draft pick then you have a lot to make up. For instance, I would rather take the more proven Chase Utley than Ian Kinsler/Pedroia and I would rather take the more proven Johan Santana or CC Sabathia rather than the third year pitcher Tim Lincecum.
Meanwhile, in the later rounds, I draft solely on potential, favoring high risk high reward players. The theory is that if you miss in the later rounds, it is not a big deal because you can always find an average player through free agency and waivers. Therefore, in the latter half of the draft, I like taking pitchers with high strikeout rates (such as Oliver Perez) or hitters with a lot of power potential (such as Pat Burrell) or steals potential (Willy Taveras). I would avoid low upside players such as Placido Polanco because a combination of free agents would probably give me similar value.
Note that the cheat sheets are my guide, but drafting may not strictly follow them as statistical needs arise. The later stages of the overall prerankings I would often stray from. Note that the differing colors show different tiers.
Generally, in drafts, I try to make sure I don't miss in the early rounds. It's best to take safer players because if you miss on your early round draft pick then you have a lot to make up. For instance, I would rather take the more proven Chase Utley than Ian Kinsler/Pedroia and I would rather take the more proven Johan Santana or CC Sabathia rather than the third year pitcher Tim Lincecum.
Meanwhile, in the later rounds, I draft solely on potential, favoring high risk high reward players. The theory is that if you miss in the later rounds, it is not a big deal because you can always find an average player through free agency and waivers. Therefore, in the latter half of the draft, I like taking pitchers with high strikeout rates (such as Oliver Perez) or hitters with a lot of power potential (such as Pat Burrell) or steals potential (Willy Taveras). I would avoid low upside players such as Placido Polanco because a combination of free agents would probably give me similar value.
Note that the cheat sheets are my guide, but drafting may not strictly follow them as statistical needs arise. The later stages of the overall prerankings I would often stray from. Note that the differing colors show different tiers.
Catchers
| McCann |
|
| Martin |
|
| Mauer |
|
| Soto |
|
| Victor |
|
| Doumit |
|
| Napoli | Major Power, potential |
| Iannetta | can he build on a good debut season |
| Bengie Molina | 34 right now, been so consistent last 6 years |
| Wieters | Upside Tempting |
| Sandoval | Upside Tempting |
| Posada | 37 right now, very scary pick |
| Ramon Hernandez |
|
| Shoppach | Victor will play 1b |
| Jeff Clement | potential |
| Chris Snyder |
|
| Pierzynski | don't see upside |
| Dioner Navarro |
|
First Base
| Pujols |
|
| Miguel Cabrera |
|
| Teixeira |
|
| Ryan Howard | 167 to 144 to 124 last three years, worrisome |
| Lane Berkman | cooled off a lot in the second half |
| Prince Fielder |
|
| Justin Morneau |
|
| Kevin Youkilis |
|
| Adrian Gonzalez |
|
| Chris Davis |
|
| Derrek Lee |
|
| Carlos Pena |
|
| Joey Votto |
|
| Garrett Atkins |
|
| Aubrey Huff |
|
| Adam Dunn | now in Washington power #s will be hard to match |
| Carlos Delgado |
|
| Jorge Cantu |
|
| Connor Jackson | No power though |
| James Loney | No power though |
| Paul Konerko |
|
| Adam Laroche |
|
| Pablo Sandoval |
|
| Carlos Guillen |
|
| Billy Butler |
|
| Mike Jacobs |
|
| Hank Blalock |
|
| Jason Giambi |
|
| Casey Kotchman | |
Second Base
Third Base
Shortstop
Outfielders
Closers
Starting Pitchers
Overall Prerankings
| Chase Utley | a surer thing than Pedroia or Kinsler |
| Ian Kinsler | MVP of fantasy before injury last year |
| Dustin Pedroia | runs, average |
| Brandon Phillips |
|
| Brian Roberts |
|
| Dan Uggla | 27, 31, and 32 homers last 3 ssns |
| Alexei Ramirez |
|
| Robinson Cano |
|
| Chone Figgins |
|
| Howie Kendrick | has yet to do anything |
| Mike Aviles |
|
| Jose Lopez |
|
| Mark DeRosa |
|
| Rickie Weeks |
|
| Placido Polanco |
|
| Kelly Johnson |
|
| Kazuo Matsui |
|
| Arod |
|
| Wright |
|
| Cabrera |
|
| Longoria |
|
| Youkilis |
|
| Aramis |
|
| Chipper |
|
| Chris Davis |
|
| Atkins |
|
| Huff |
|
| Zimmerman | injured last year, will have Dunn this year |
| Chone |
|
| Beltre |
|
| Alex Gordon |
|
| Jorge Cantu |
|
| Sandoval |
|
| Edwin Encarnacion |
|
| Carlos Guillen |
|
| Mark Reynolds |
|
| DeRosa |
|
| Mora |
|
| Troy Glaus | sure power |
| Mike Lowell |
|
| Blalock |
|
| Kouzmanoff |
|
| Brandon Wood | it wasn’t long ago… |
| Hanley |
|
| Jose Reyes |
|
| Rollins |
|
| Furcal |
|
| Alexei Ramirez |
|
| Tulowitzki |
|
| Stephen Drew |
|
| Michael Young |
|
| Jeter | Decline |
| Hardy |
|
| Peralta |
|
| Mike Aviles |
|
| Tejada |
|
| Theriot |
|
| Elvis Andrus | upside |
| Khalil Greene |
|
| Orlando Cabrera |
|
| Jed Lowrie |
|
| Edgar Renteria |
|
| Brandon Wood |
|
| Sizemore | Adam Dunn |
| Braun | Damon |
| Hamilton | Ibanez |
| Soriano | Vernon Wells |
| Beltran | Nelson Cruz |
| BJ Upton | Rick Ankiel |
| Carlos Lee | Chris Young |
| Manny | Andre Ethier |
| Ichiro | Brad Hawpe |
| Crawford | Justin Upton |
| Quentin | Adam Jones |
| Holliday | Jayson Werth |
| Markakis | Pat Burrell |
| Jason Bay | Conor Jackson |
| Matt Kemp | Milledge |
| Alex Rios | Matsui |
| Granderson | Delmon Young |
| McLouth | Mark DeRosa |
| Ellsbury | Xavier Nady |
| Vlady | Willy Taveras |
| Victorino | Adam Lind |
| Corey Hart | Choo |
| Hunter Pence | Bourn |
| Bobby Abreu | Francoeur |
| Maggs | Cust |
| Jay Bruce | Maybin |
| Dye | Hermida |
| Ludwick | Carlos Gomez |
| Alexei Ramirez | Gary Sheffield |
| Milton Bradley | Mike Cameron |
| Torii Hunter | Juan Pierre |
|
| Chase Headley |
| Papelbon |
|
| Nathan |
|
| Mariano |
|
| Brad Lidge |
|
| Soria |
|
| Krod | should get many opportunities |
| Fuentes | Arredondo solid setup man |
| Broxton |
|
| Jenks |
|
| Marmol | anticipating beating out Gregg |
| Kerry Wood | health concerns |
| Jose Valverde |
|
| BJ Ryan |
|
| Matt Capps |
|
| Francisco Cordero | job secure |
| Heath Bell | job secure |
| Trevor Hoffman | job secure |
| Frank Francisco |
|
| Brian Wilson |
|
| Chad Qualls | Jon Rauch and Tony Pena scare |
| Mike Gonzalez | Rafael Soriano lurks |
| Huston Street | should beat out Corpas |
| Chris Ray |
|
| Joey Devine | over Brad Ziegler |
| Chris Perez | fights with Jason Motte |
| Brandon Lyon | Rodney, Zumaya lurk |
| Matt Lindstrom | dangerous, not secure |
| Percival | dangerous, not secure |
| Joel Hanrahan |
|
| Seattle closer? | Mark Lowe? Walker? |
| Brad Ziegler |
|
| Jason Motte |
|
| Manny Corpas | depends on Huston Street |
| Kevin Gregg | depends on Marmol |
| Rafael Soriano | depends on Mike Gonzalez |
| Dan Wheeler | b/c Percival sucks |
| Jose Arredondo | depends on Fuentes |
| Fernando Rodney |
|
| Tony Pena |
|
| Rafael Betancourt |
|
| Johan | too consistent |
| CC | 20+ wins seems highly likely |
| Lincecum | one year, and small frame heavy workload |
| Webb | consistency |
| Hamels | more wins this year |
| Jake Peavy | Ks |
| Halladay |
|
| Haren |
|
| Roy Oswalt |
|
| John Lackey |
|
| Liriano |
|
| Felix |
|
| James Shields |
|
| Ervin Santana |
|
| Beckett | wins |
| Kazmir |
|
| Greinke |
|
| Dice-K | getting better |
| Billingsley |
|
| Cliff Lee | the next esteban loaiza? |
| Gallardo |
|
| AJ Burnett |
|
| Edinson Volquez |
|
| Rich Harden | top 10 when he's healthy |
| Ricky Nolasco |
|
| Scott Baker |
|
| Javier Vazquez | Ks |
| Matt Cain |
|
| Ted Lilly |
|
| Erik Bedard | high upside |
| Joba Chamberlain | great situation |
| Jon Lester |
|
| Matt Garza | where did those minor league Ks go? |
| Ryan Dempster |
|
| Aaron Harang | last year could have been a fluke |
| Carlos Zambrano | ERA rose from 2.76 to 3.91 in last 8 starts |
| Adam Wainwright |
|
| Chris Young |
|
| Max Scherzer | strikeouts galore, high upside |
| Josh Johnson |
|
| Justin Verlander |
|
| Lowe |
|
| Slowey |
|
| John Danks |
|
| Clayton Kershaw |
|
| Randy Johnson |
|
| Jered Weaver |
|
| Brett Myers |
|
| Chris Carpenter | high upside |
| Cueto |
|
| Gil Meche |
|
| John Maine |
|
| Ubaldo Jimenez |
|
| Brandon Morrow |
|
| Oliver Perez | always the same story: potential |
| Wandy Rodriguez | home, road splits staggering difference |
| David Price |
|
| Manny Para |
|
| Jonathan Sanchez |
|
| Carmona |
|
| Anibal Sanchez |
|
| Brad Penny |
|
| Jason Schmidt |
|
| Ian Snell |
|
| John Smoltz |
|
| Homer Bailey |
|
| Pujols | Derrek Lee | Gordon | Carlos Gomez |
| Hanley | Furcal | Cantu | Sheffield |
| Arod | Alexei | Hardy | Manny Para |
| Reyes | Uggla | Peralta | J. Sanchez |
| Wright | Kazmir | Ankiel | Carmona |
| Sizemore | Jenks | C Young (OF) | Anibal Sanchez |
| Miguel | Marmol | Ethier | Brad Penny |
| Braun | Wood | Hawpe | Jason Schmidt |
| Rollins | Valverde | Upton | Ian Snell |
| Teixeira | Tulowitzki | Kendrick | Carlos Guillen |
| Johan | Drew | Jon Lester | Greene |
| CC | M. Young | Garza | Brandon Wood |
| Utley | Ervin | Dempster | Encarnacion |
| Hamilton | Beckett | Mike Aviles | Mark Reynolds |
| Kinsler | Greinke | Harang | Mora |
| Lincecum | Dice-K | Zambrano | Glaus |
| Soriano | Billingsley | Wainwright | Billy Butler |
| Beltran | David Ortiz | Adam Jones | Mike Jacobs |
| Pedroia | Atkins | Jayson Werth | Blalock |
| Howard | Cliff Lee | Pat Burrell | Giambi |
| BJ Upton | Gallardo | Connor Jackson | Ramon Hernan |
| Carlos Lee | AJ Burnett | Chris Young | Shoppach |
| Manny | Volquez | Scherzer | Jeff Clement |
| Berkman | Victorino | Josh Johnson | Chris Snyder |
| Fielder | Pena | Verlander |
|
| Webb | Votto | Lowe |
|
| Hamels | Huff | Slowey |
|
| Longoria | Hart | Milledge |
|
| Phillips | Pence | Matsui |
|
| Roberts | Abreu | Delmon Young |
|
| Morneau | Maggs | Jose Lopez |
|
| Ichiro | Bruce | Mark DeRosa |
|
| Peavy | Dye | Nady |
|
| Halladay | Ludwick | Taveras |
|
| Haren | Cano | Adam Lind |
|
| Youkilis | Chone | Danks |
|
| Crawford | Harden | Kershaw |
|
| Aramis | Nolasco | Randy Johnson |
|
| Quentin | Baker | James Loney |
|
| Holliday | Vazquez | Konerko |
|
| Markakis | BJ Ryan | LaRoche |
|
| Bay | Capps | Iannetta |
|
| Papelbon | Cain | Molina |
|
| Nathan | Lilly | Wieters |
|
| Mariano | Bedard | Sandoval |
|
| Lidge | Zimmerman | Rickie Weeks |
|
| Oswalt | Cordero | Tejada |
|
| Lackey | Heath Bell | Jered Weaver |
|
| Chipper | Hoffman | Brett Myers |
|
| Adrian | Bradley | Carpenter |
|
| McCann | Torii | Cueto |
|
| Martin | Dunn | Meche |
|
| Mauer | Delgado | Maine |
|
| Soto | Damon | Ubaldo |
|
| Liriano | Ibanez | Morrow |
|
| Felix | Vernon Wells | Oliver Perez |
|
| Shields | Jeter | Wandy |
|
| Soria | Nelson Cruz | David Price |
|
| Krod | Joba | Posada |
|
| Kemp | Francisco | Lindstrom |
|
| Rios | Wilson | Percival |
|
| Granderson | Qualls | Hanrahan |
|
| McLouth | Mike Gonzalez | Choo |
|
| Ellsbury | Huston Street | Michael Bourn |
|
| Chris Davis | Napoli | Francoeur |
|
| Vlady | Chris Ray | Jack Cust |
|
| Victor | Joey Devine | Maybin |
|
| Fuentes | Chris Perez | Hermida |
|
| Broxton | Brandon Lyon | Theriot |
|
| Doumit | Beltre | Elvis Andrus |
|
Thursday, January 29, 2009
NFL Future Book Odds for Next Season
Although the Super Bowl has yet to be played, many fans such as myself are looking forward to next year already. While looking at the NFL Future Book Odds at VegasInsider, I noticed a few places I would like to place bets.
First of all, it's important to realize that if you sum the probabilities suggested by the posted online odds at a site such as VegasInsider, they add up to more than 1. For next season's AFC Championship winner, the probabilities add up to 1.43. For next season's NFC Championship winner, the probabilities add up 1.46. For the Super Bowl XLIV winner, the probabilities add up to 1.62. This suggests that the probabilities (and therefore the odds) are too good, and conducive to betting.
TOP BET TO MAKE (Most Underrated Team): Minnesota Vikings (11/1 to win NFC Championship)
This team has great talent on defense, a great offensive line, Bernard Berrian, Chester Taylor, and of course Adrian Peterson. Coming off a season in which they went 10-6 and won the NFC North, it seems strange that they are considered less likely to be NFC Champions than the Packers and the Saints.
Of course the main problem, and a substantial problem, is the quarterback position. Any Tarvaris Jackson team should have less than 11/1 odds of winning a conference championship, no matter how good his team's defense and running game may be. However, Minnesota realizes this problem as well, and should be looking for a quarterback in the coming months.
The Vikings are expected to save $13 million or so by cutting ties with free agent center Matt Birk, free agent safety Darren Sharper, and free agent tight end Jim Kleinsasser. This should open up space for a needed new starting quarterback. With news today that Donovan McNabb may want out of Philadelphia (from ESPN) and that Tom Brady looks to be ready for the season opener, thoughts of a McNabb-led or Matt Cassel-led Minnesota Vikings team substantially change the odds in my mind. If those two prime options don't work out, perhaps the Vikings could take a chance with Matt Hasselbeck, Derek Anderson, Marc Bulger, or Sage Rosenfels.
It makes sense to bet on the Vikings in hopes that they find someone to fill the quarterback void. Anybody would be a substantial upgrade over the current situation.
TOP BET TO AVOID (Most Overrated Team): Miami Dolphins (12/1 to win AFC Championship, 25/1 to win Super Bowl XLIV)
For all the media attention that they received for their turnaround from last season, the Dolphins really were not as good as their record indicated. Their last 7 wins were by 2 against Seattle, 2 against Oakland, 4 against St. Louis, 13 against Buffalo, 5 against San Francisco, 7 against Kansas City and 7 against the Jets. Note that all those teams had losing records with the exception of the Jets, who were playing horribly at the end of the season. With the exception of the game against the Bills, the Dolphins could have easily lost the other 6 games. Meanwhile, there was a 20 point loss to the Patriots in the second half of the season.
Aside from the running back position, this team has very little firepower, including Chad Pennington's arm. While their ability to not turn the ball over this season was impressive, the fact that little about this team poses challenges for the opposition makes it almost impossible for them to compete against the giants of the AFC next year. 11-5 was a fluke.
First of all, it's important to realize that if you sum the probabilities suggested by the posted online odds at a site such as VegasInsider, they add up to more than 1. For next season's AFC Championship winner, the probabilities add up to 1.43. For next season's NFC Championship winner, the probabilities add up 1.46. For the Super Bowl XLIV winner, the probabilities add up to 1.62. This suggests that the probabilities (and therefore the odds) are too good, and conducive to betting.
TOP BET TO MAKE (Most Underrated Team): Minnesota Vikings (11/1 to win NFC Championship)
This team has great talent on defense, a great offensive line, Bernard Berrian, Chester Taylor, and of course Adrian Peterson. Coming off a season in which they went 10-6 and won the NFC North, it seems strange that they are considered less likely to be NFC Champions than the Packers and the Saints.
Of course the main problem, and a substantial problem, is the quarterback position. Any Tarvaris Jackson team should have less than 11/1 odds of winning a conference championship, no matter how good his team's defense and running game may be. However, Minnesota realizes this problem as well, and should be looking for a quarterback in the coming months.
The Vikings are expected to save $13 million or so by cutting ties with free agent center Matt Birk, free agent safety Darren Sharper, and free agent tight end Jim Kleinsasser. This should open up space for a needed new starting quarterback. With news today that Donovan McNabb may want out of Philadelphia (from ESPN) and that Tom Brady looks to be ready for the season opener, thoughts of a McNabb-led or Matt Cassel-led Minnesota Vikings team substantially change the odds in my mind. If those two prime options don't work out, perhaps the Vikings could take a chance with Matt Hasselbeck, Derek Anderson, Marc Bulger, or Sage Rosenfels.
It makes sense to bet on the Vikings in hopes that they find someone to fill the quarterback void. Anybody would be a substantial upgrade over the current situation.
TOP BET TO AVOID (Most Overrated Team): Miami Dolphins (12/1 to win AFC Championship, 25/1 to win Super Bowl XLIV)
For all the media attention that they received for their turnaround from last season, the Dolphins really were not as good as their record indicated. Their last 7 wins were by 2 against Seattle, 2 against Oakland, 4 against St. Louis, 13 against Buffalo, 5 against San Francisco, 7 against Kansas City and 7 against the Jets. Note that all those teams had losing records with the exception of the Jets, who were playing horribly at the end of the season. With the exception of the game against the Bills, the Dolphins could have easily lost the other 6 games. Meanwhile, there was a 20 point loss to the Patriots in the second half of the season.
Aside from the running back position, this team has very little firepower, including Chad Pennington's arm. While their ability to not turn the ball over this season was impressive, the fact that little about this team poses challenges for the opposition makes it almost impossible for them to compete against the giants of the AFC next year. 11-5 was a fluke.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
